Win Probability
AI Game Review
Geelong Cats defied the model's 51% prediction for Western Bulldogs, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.7 but the actual margin was 75 points. The game's 187 points came in 46 points higher than the predicted 141. Geelong Cats led 78–21 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 75. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
49%
Western Bulldogs
51%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Western Bulldogs a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Western Bulldogs carry a 65-point ELO rating advantage (1574 vs 1509). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Geelong Cats. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 11.7 points with a combined total of 141.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @2.44
Lost ✗
Edge
+9.5%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -10.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.2%
Margin Band
Geelong Cats 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 185.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | W L L L L | 88.6 |
Western Bulldogs | W W W W L | 82.3 |
Avg Conceded
76.4
Geelong Cats
86.1
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-7.6
Geelong Cats
-7.8
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
341.5
Geelong Cats
373.8
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
42.6
Geelong Cats
55.2
Western Bulldogs
ELO–Market Disagreement
Western Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1574 vs 1509), but the market favours Geelong Cats (@1.69).
The model sides with ELO, Western Bulldogs predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 141 · Line: +11.7
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