# Carlton v Collingwood — AFL Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 83 – 88 Collingwood

_Collingwood rally to deny Carlton._

Half time: 41 – 27 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 60% / Collingwood 40% · MCG · Thu, 16 Apr, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Brodie Kemp (25' ×2), Ben Ainsworth (32' ×2), Matt Carroll (45' ×2), Mitch McGovern (80' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Francis Evans (83') · Collingwood: Oscar Steene (8' ×2 1st), Daniel McStay (14' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Beau McCreery (49'), Jamie Elliott (66' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Tim Membrey (74' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nick Daicos (58'), Will Hayes (62'), Patrick Lipinski (64')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 60% | Lost |
| Collingwood | 40% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.4 predicted → 5 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 6 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Apr 2026, 08:49 pm · Last updated: 17 Apr 2026, 12:12 am_

Carlton 83–88 Collingwood in AFL Round 6 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Collingwood 88, Carlton 83, at the MCG, and for the best part of three quarters that scoreline would have looked ridiculous. Carlton led at every change except the first, built an 18-point buffer by three-quarter time, and then watched it disappear in the final 30 minutes.

Collingwood started better, up 16 to 15 at quarter time, next to nothing in it. Carlton responded through the middle two quarters, outscoring their opponents to push the margin to 41-27 at half time and 63-45 at the last change. Eighteen points clear with a quarter to go is normally job done. Not this time.

Collingwood piled on 43 points in the final term to Carlton's 20, erasing the gap and going on to win by 5. That's the whole match in one stat: a team that had been comfortably beaten for three quarters found something in the last twenty minutes that the other side didn't.

The disposal numbers explain how. Collingwood finished with 416 disposals to Carlton's 390 and used it more efficiently, 75.0% to 71.3%. They also took more marks, 136 to 101, and went inside 50 more often, 58 times to 44. Carlton were sharper when the ball did arrive inside their forward 50, converting it into marks there at a better rate, 13 to 10, but Collingwood's sheer volume of entries mattered more once the final quarter turned.

Carlton had the contested edge for most of the day. They won the contested possession count 132 to 113 and intercepts 64 to 60, both signs of a side happy to scrap for it. Collingwood shaded the clearances 31 to 29 and won the hitout count comfortably, 35 to 27, despite going in with the weaker ruck rating on paper, 1035 to Carlton's 1117. That's a number that doesn't show up before the game but shows up plainly enough on the scoreboard.

Tackles were dead even at 62 apiece, which tells you this wasn't a game decided by pressure alone. It came down to what each side did once they had it, and after three-quarter time Collingwood simply did more with it.

Collingwood went into the match with the stronger forward and defensive ratings, 1108 and 1085 against Carlton's 1063 and 1035, while Carlton held the edge in the ruck and were rated marginally ahead overall, 1566 to 1549. Alphr's model had Carlton favourites by 1.4 points and picked a combined score of 134. The final total, 171, ran 37 points higher than that, and Collingwood's win means the model went 1 from 4 on this one.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 15 | 26 | 22 | 20 | 83 |
| Collingwood | 16 | 11 | 18 | 43 | 88 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| 390 | Disposals | **416** |
| **132** | Contested poss. | 113 |
| 29 | Clearances | **31** |
| 44 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| 101 | Marks | **136** |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| 62 | Tackles | 62 |
| 27 | Hit-outs | **35** |
| **64** | Intercepts | 60 |
| 71.3% | Disposal eff. | **75.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Collingwood defied the model's 60% prediction for Carlton, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 1.4 was reasonable against the actual 5-point result. The game's 171 points came in 37 points higher than the predicted 134. Collingwood trailed 41–27 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 83–88. The model went 1/4 on this match. Carlton covered the 10.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $2.53 (edge +20.5%) — model probability 60.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +10.5 @ $1.90 (edge +11.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 156.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 1 · Predicted total: 134

### H2H History (Last 5) — Collingwood lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Collingwood | 90 – 69 | Carlton | Collingwood 72% ✓ |
| 2025 | R17 | Carlton | 59 – 115 | Collingwood | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | Collingwood | 63 – 46 | Carlton | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | Collingwood | 84 – 81 | Carlton | not priced |
| 2024 | R8 | Carlton | 79 – 85 | Collingwood | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 36 · 50 | 37 · 42 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 96/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.2/g | 20.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.2/g | 8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.4% | 69.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 15 · 22 | 12 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 160/g | 121/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.4/g | 17.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67% | 73.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 2 | 1 · 2 |
| Goal Assists | 0.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposals | 106/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.8/g | 13/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.7% | 80.2% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.57/g (lg 0.49) +16% · Defenders 1.19/g (lg 1.18) +1% · Midfielders 2.32/g (lg 2.5) -7%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Defenders 1.33/g (lg 1.18) +13% · Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.49) +10% · Forwards 4.73/g (lg 4.4) +7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 9 in 5g | 18/10g (3·4·0·1·1·0·2·3·2·2) | 12/10g | 38/45g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 80' 82' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 7 in 5g | 20/10g (1·1·3·7·1·1·2·1·2·1) | 20/8g | 101/50g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 6 in 5g | 8/10g (0·2·0·0·0·3·1·0·2·0) | 1/9g | 6/34g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 5 in 5g | 10/10g (2·0·2·0·1·2·0·1·0·2) | 8/9g | 6/7g | 66% | — | 🏉 32' 71' |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 5 in 5g | 12/10g (1·1·5·0·0·1·1·0·3·0) | 0/3g | 3/21g | 30% | — | 🏉 25' 35' |
| – | Elijah Hollands | FWD | 5 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·1) | 2/2g | 13/12g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 19% | — | 🏉 45' 88' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 2 in 4g | 11/10g (1·3·0·3·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 9/11g | 28/24g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 62% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·1) | 5/13g | 18/39g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/13g | 13/37g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 1 in 3g | 13/10g (0·0·1·2·4·2·3·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 7/11g | 48% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Nic Newman | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 2/43g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 1/23g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 5/27g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 8/18g | 40/91g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 15/49g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Talor Byrne | FWD | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 7/78g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/19g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/25g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 2/33g | 2% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 8 in 5g | 11/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·2·4·1) | 19/13g | 44/41g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 82' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 7 in 5g | 12/10g (1·2·0·0·2·0·1·4·1·1) | 33/14g | 58/32g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' 84' |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 6 in 5g | 10/10g (1·0·2·0·1·2·2·1·1·0) | 8/9g | 40/33g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 5 in 5g | 17/10g (0·2·2·4·4·1·2·1·1·0) | 28/20g | 221/136g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' 70' 79' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 4 in 4g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·2·0) | 4/8g | 35/61g | 58% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | 4 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/5g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 43/59g | 32% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 7/19g | 52/156g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 6/25g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Angus Anderson | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $2.45 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/12g | 8/32g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 39/72g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Steene | RUC | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 8' 61' |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 4/30g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 15/141g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 3/32g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 3/78g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 56/164g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 30/89g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/12g | 29/60g | 34% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/24g | 80/186g | 16% | — | — |
| – | William Hayes | FWD | 0 in 1g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 33% | — | 🏉 62' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | 30.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 28 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps | 26.5 | $1.90 | 48% | 25 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra | 24.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 22 ✓ |
| Nic Newman | 23.5 | $1.90 | 39% | 24 ✗ |
| Oliver Florent ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 69% | 23 ✗ |
| Jagga Smith | 21.5 | $1.83 | 43% | 20 ✓ |
| Oliver Hollands | 18.5 | $1.87 | 38% | 16 ✓ |
| Nick Haynes | 17.5 | $1.90 | 44% | 18 ✗ |
| Elijah Hollands | 17.5 | $1.94 | 48% | 1 ✓ |
| Zac Williams | 16.5 | $1.94 | 31% | 26 ✗ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 31.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 39 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 26 ✓ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 22.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 24 ✗ |
| Jack Crisp | 22.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 21 ✓ |
| Dan Houston | 21.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 25 ✗ |
| Patrick Lipinski ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.78 | 67% | 27 ✗ |
| Brayden Maynard | 17.5 | $1.90 | 46% | 18 ✗ |
| Angus Anderson | 15.5 | $1.85 | 52% | 17 ✗ |
| Harry Perryman | 15.5 | $1.91 | 47% | 27 ✗ |
| Lachie Schultz | 15.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 14 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-16 14:12 UTC (latest tip update)