Win Probability
AI Game Review
Collingwood defied the model's 60% prediction for Carlton, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 1.4 was reasonable against the actual 5-point result. The game's 171 points came in 37 points higher than the predicted 134. Collingwood trailed 41–27 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 83–88. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Carlton
60%
Collingwood
40%
AI Match Overview
Carlton hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Collingwood are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Carlton ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours Carlton with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Collingwood. The margin model predicts Carlton by 1.4 points with a combined total of 134.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @2.53
Lost ✗
Edge
+20.5%
Line / Spread
Carlton +10.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.9%
Margin Band
Carlton 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 156.5 @1.87
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | W W W L L | 83.4 |
Collingwood | W W L L L | 91.2 |
Avg Conceded
75.8
Carlton
74.6
Collingwood
Avg Margin
28.5
Carlton
22.6
Collingwood
Disposals
348.5
Carlton
342.8
Collingwood
Inside 50s
47.8
Carlton
48.8
Collingwood
ELO–Market Disagreement
Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1566 vs 1549), but the market favours Collingwood (@1.65).
The model sides with ELO, Carlton predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Carlton predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 134 · Line: +1.4
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