Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 58% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 14.5 but the actual margin was 1 points. The game's 205 points came in 67 points higher than the predicted 138. The model went 2/4 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
58%
St Kilda
42%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though St Kilda are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Adelaide Crows carry a 23-point ELO rating advantage (1526 vs 1503). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 14.5 points with a combined total of 138.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.0%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -12.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.0%
Margin Band
Adelaide Crows 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 178.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | W W L L L | 99.1 |
St Kilda | W L L L L | 76.4 |
Avg Conceded
97.3
Adelaide Crows
70.2
St Kilda
Avg Margin
27.3
Adelaide Crows
11.3
St Kilda
Disposals
331.9
Adelaide Crows
365.8
St Kilda
Inside 50s
42.8
Adelaide Crows
54.3
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 15 points
Predicted total: 138 · Line: +14.5
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.