# Adelaide Crows v St Kilda — AFL Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 103 – 102 St Kilda

_A point the difference as Adelaide Crows deny St Kilda._

Half time: 52 – 44 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 58% / St Kilda 42% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 18 Apr, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Riley Thilthorpe (32' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Izak Rankine (38' Tipped ⚡), Taylor Walker (43' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Finnbar Maley (51'), Josh Rachele (54' Tipped ⚡), James Peatling (62'), Brayden Cook (69'), Ben Keays (82') · St Kilda: Liam Ryan (11' 1st Tipped ⚡), Darcy Wilson (12' ×2), Jack Higgins (20' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Dan Butler (36' ×2), Mason Wood (79'), Tom De Koning (94'), Cooper Sharman (72' Tipped ⚡), Bradley Hill (74'), Mitch Owens (94' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 58% | Won |
| St Kilda | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.5 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 6 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Apr 2026, 08:49 pm · Last updated: 18 Apr 2026, 11:55 pm_

Adelaide Crows 103–102 St Kilda in AFL Round 6 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Kilda did most things a side needs to do to win a game of football. More disposals, 387 to 368. More marks, 102 to 100, including the edge inside 50, 16 to 15. Better disposal efficiency too, 74.9% to 74.2%. On paper, that's a winning formula. It wasn't, and the ledger says why.

The start was theirs. St Kilda led 28-8 at quarter time, a 20-point buffer built on exactly the kind of ball use their form suggested, they'd been averaging more disposals and more inside 50s than Adelaide over their last five. For a term, the form held up perfectly.

Then it got away from them. Adelaide outscored St Kilda heavily through the middle two quarters, turning that 20-point deficit into a 15-point lead by half time and stretching it to 15 again at the final change, 85-70. St Kilda's efficient, high-possession game kept ticking over, but it wasn't translating into scoreboard pressure the way it had in that opening term.

Credit where it's due, they didn't fold. The last quarter was a 32-18 stanza in St Kilda's favour, a serious late surge that dragged the margin all the way back down. It just wasn't quite enough. Adelaide Crows 103, St Kilda 102. One point.

Turn it around and Adelaide's win was built on the contested and territorial side of the game rather than raw ball movement. They won the inside 50 count comfortably, 56 to 47, and backed it up with 58 tackles to St Kilda's 44. That's a team applying heat when it mattered, even while losing the disposal count. Adelaide also had the ruck battle, 35 hit-outs to 27, which lines up with their edge in the pre-match ruck rating, 984 to 968, and a stronger midfield rating too, 1054 to 1006. Both showed up when it counted.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 8 | 44 | 33 | 18 | 103 |
| St Kilda | 28 | 16 | 26 | 32 | 102 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 368 | Disposals | **387** |
| **126** | Contested poss. | 124 |
| 39 | Clearances | 39 |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| 100 | Marks | **102** |
| 15 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| **58** | Tackles | 44 |
| **35** | Hit-outs | 27 |
| **66** | Intercepts | 64 |
| 74.2% | Disposal eff. | **74.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 58% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 14.5 but the actual margin was 1 points. The game's 205 points came in 67 points higher than the predicted 138. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.50 (edge -9.0%) — model probability 57.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -12.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 15 · Predicted total: 138

### H2H History (Last 5) — Adelaide Crows lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R1 | Adelaide Crows | 135 – 72 | St Kilda |
| 2024 | R18 | Adelaide Crows | 71 – 39 | St Kilda |
| 2023 | R9 | Adelaide Crows | 121 – 69 | St Kilda |
| 2022 | R10 | Adelaide Crows | 69 – 90 | St Kilda |
| 2021 | R13 | St Kilda | 60 – 66 | Adelaide Crows |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 45 · 38 | 42 · 47 |
| Goal Assists | 6.8/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 93/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.8/g | 17.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.2/g | 6.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 64.4% | 66.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 16 · 13 | 10 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 116/g | 146/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.2/g | 24/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.6/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.1% | 68.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 6 | 6 · 3 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 119/g | 130/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.2/g | 11.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.6% | 76.5% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.75/g (lg 2.5) +10% · Forwards 4.35/g (lg 4.4) -1% · Key Forwards 3.69/g (lg 3.78) -2%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.23/g (lg 1.17) +5% · Forwards 4.19/g (lg 4.4) -5% · Midfielders 2.34/g (lg 2.5) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 9 in 5g | 16/10g (3·0·2·0·2·1·2·1·1·4) | 5/4g | 64/43g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 8 in 5g | 20/10g (3·1·3·2·3·3·2·1·1·1) | 10/5g | 68/49g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' 84' 86' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 5 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 8/11g | 19/30g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 5 in 4g | 16/10g (3·3·2·1·2·0·0·3·1·1) | 36/14g | 294/133g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' 56' 67' 90' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 4 in 5g | 9/10g (1·0·3·0·1·1·0·0·0·3) | 5/7g | 68/79g | 70% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 4 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 7/24g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 4 in 4g | 13/10g (1·2·1·3·1·1·1·1·0·2) | 8/5g | 71/39g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 4 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·3·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/19g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 7/19g | 31% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Finnbar Maley | KF | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 60% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 1 in 5g | 7/10g (1·1·3·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 8/18g | 36% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/46g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 1 in 4g | 10/10g (0·1·1·3·3·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 24/23g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/42g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 8/46g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Edwards | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Hugh Bond | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/35g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 0 in 5g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/19g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/42g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 18/140g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 18/72g | 6% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 9 in 5g | 15/10g (1·2·2·0·1·2·2·1·2·2) | 0/2g | 6/6g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 94' |
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 7 in 5g | 18/10g (4·2·2·3·0·1·2·2·2·0) | 5/6g | 13/11g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 25' 88' 86' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 7 in 5g | 12/10g (1·1·3·0·0·1·1·1·3·1) | 9/9g | 9/9g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 7 in 5g | 11/10g (0·1·1·0·2·1·4·1·0·1) | 2/1g | 4/3g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 6 in 5g | 16/10g (2·1·2·3·2·2·0·0·3·1) | 3/3g | 6/6g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 6 in 5g | 12/10g (4·0·1·1·0·1·3·0·0·2) | 1/4g | 4/8g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 3 in 5g | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 13/9g | 12/10g | 60% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/2g | 5/5g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 7/11g | 10/19g | 26% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 2 in 5g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·5·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 44% | — | 🏉 12' 67' |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 2/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/8g | 3/6g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dan Butler | FWD | 0 in 2g | 8/10g (1·0·4·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/9g | 11/12g | 52% | — | 🏉 36' 75' |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/10g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jack Carroll | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 4/16g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 4/12g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 1/6g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/9g | 24% | — | 🏉 94' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | 25.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 26 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell | 24.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 28 ✗ |
| Wayne Milera ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 29 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.85 | 81% | 24 ✗ |
| Sam Berry ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.83 | 76% | 20 ✓ |
| Josh Rachele ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.85 | 85% | 20 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.85 | 75% | 20 ✓ |
| Isaac Cumming | 16.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 5 ✓ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | 28.5 | $1.92 | 59% | 35 ✗ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 27.5 | $1.80 | 56% | 28 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.80 | 76% | 30 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager | 23.5 | $1.81 | 54% | 20 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie | 21.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 31 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill | 20.5 | $1.94 | 48% | 23 ✗ |
| Hugo Garcia | 18.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 24 ✗ |
| Max Hall | 16.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 11 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-18 13:55 UTC (latest tip update)