Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.4 but the actual margin was 32 points. The game's 168 points came in 36 points higher than the predicted 132. Sydney Swans led 51–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 3/4 on this match. The under 191.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
55%
Gold Coast SUNS
45%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Gold Coast SUNS are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Sydney Swans ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Defensive ELO. Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 2.4 points with a combined total of 132.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.75
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.2%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS +4.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.1%
Margin Band
Sydney Swans 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 191.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | W W W W L | 75.2 |
Gold Coast SUNS | W W W L L | 106.1 |
Avg Conceded
93.4
Sydney Swans
79.8
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
-2.1
Sydney Swans
-8.9
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
363.2
Sydney Swans
368.7
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
46.9
Sydney Swans
57.6
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 132 · Line: +2.4
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