# Sydney Swans v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 100 – 68 Gold Coast SUNS

_Sydney Swans sail past Gold Coast SUNS._

Half time: 51 – 35 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 55% / Gold Coast SUNS 45% · Norwood Oval · Sat, 11 Apr, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Riley Bice (13' 1st), Isaac Heeney (19' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tom Papley (24' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Malcolm Rosas (27' ×2), Corey Warner (51'), Chad Warner (86'), Final quarter (31m 55s)Harry Cunningham (64'), Logan McDonald (77' Tipped ⚡) · Gold Coast SUNS: Jed Walter (17' ×2), Ben Long (28' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ben King (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Alex Davies (88'), Will Graham (66')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 55% | Won |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.4 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Apr 2026, 05:24 pm · Last updated: 11 Apr 2026, 08:19 pm_

Sydney Swans 100–68 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 5 at Norwood Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half time at Norwood Oval had Sydney Swans up 51-35, a healthy buffer but nothing outrageous. The bigger story was how they got there: a 36-13 opening term that looked like a rout, then Gold Coast SUNS clawing back to win the second quarter outright and trim the gap to 16. For a spell it looked like the Suns had found an answer.

They hadn't, not really. The third quarter played out almost as a stalemate, Sydney 22 to Gold Coast's 21, and the margin barely moved, sitting at 17 points with 73-56 on the board at the last change. Whatever adjustment Gold Coast made at half time, it wasn't enough to change the trajectory, just enough to stop the bleeding for twenty-five minutes.

Then the final quarter arrived and undid all that stabilising work. Sydney piled on 27 points to Gold Coast's 12, turning a 17-point contest into a 32-point beating by the final siren. Full time: Sydney Swans 100, Gold Coast SUNS 68.

The stat sheet explains why the door never really closed. Sydney won the clearance count 43-39 and the contested possession count 151-135, modest edges on paper but enough to keep feeding a disposal count that finished 391 to 333 at 71.1% efficiency against 67.3%. Ninety-seven tackles to 52 tells you which side wanted it more when the ball hit the deck, and 16 marks inside 50 to just 4 tells you which side actually made its forward-half pressure count. Sydney went inside 50 62 times to 56, a modest gap, but they were miles cleaner once they got there.

That defensive gap was flagged well before the first bounce.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 36 | 15 | 22 | 27 | 100 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 13 | 22 | 21 | 12 | 68 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| **391** | Disposals | 333 |
| **151** | Contested poss. | 135 |
| **43** | Clearances | 39 |
| **62** | Inside 50s | 56 |
| **66** | Marks | 50 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 4 |
| **97** | Tackles | 52 |
| 39 | Hit-outs | **43** |
| **82** | Intercepts | 77 |
| **71.1%** | Disposal eff. | 67.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.4 but the actual margin was 32 points. The game's 168 points came in 36 points higher than the predicted 132. Sydney Swans led 51–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 191.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.75 (edge -2.2%) — model probability 54.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +4.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 191.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 2 · Predicted total: 132

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sydney Swans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R7 | Gold Coast SUNS | 117 – 79 | Sydney Swans |
| 2024 | R6 | Sydney Swans | 110 – 57 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2023 | R22 | Sydney Swans | 114 – 90 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2023 | R1 | Gold Coast SUNS | 61 – 110 | Sydney Swans |
| 2022 | R8 | Sydney Swans | 61 – 75 | Gold Coast SUNS |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Sydney Swans | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 38 · 25 | 56 · 27 |
| Goal Assists | 5.3/g | 8.8/g |
| Disposals | 94/g | 129/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.5/g | 24.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.3/g | 13.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70% | 73.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Sydney Swans | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 30 · 10 | 8 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 6.3/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 166/g | 101/g |
| Inside 50s | 32.3/g | 19/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.3/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.8% | 72.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Sydney Swans | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 1 | 8 · 5 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 150/g |
| Inside 50s | 14/g | 15.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.6% | 83.2% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Midfielders 2.5/g (lg 2.5) +0% · Defenders 1.17/g (lg 1.18) -1% · Forwards 4.35/g (lg 4.4) -1%
**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.62/g (lg 0.49) +27% · Midfielders 2.36/g (lg 2.5) -6% · Key Forwards 3.43/g (lg 3.75) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Norwood Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | 11 in 4g | 21/10g (2·4·0·2·0·2·3·5·1·2) | 5/2g | 0/0g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 9 in 4g | 14/10g (0·0·0·0·3·2·3·0·2·4) | 19/11g | 0/0g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 8 in 3g | 23/10g (1·5·1·1·5·1·1·2·2·4) | 14/12g | 0/0g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 67' |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 7 in 4g | 11/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·3·2·1·1) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Logan McDonald | KF | 6 in 4g | 13/10g (1·0·3·1·2·0·1·2·3·0) | 8/4g | 0/0g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 4 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 6/11g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 4 in 4g | 8/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·1·2) | 7/7g | 0/0g | 62% | — | 🏉 51' 86' |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 4 in 4g | 11/10g (0·1·1·0·2·3·1·0·1·2) | 19/10g | 0/0g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 74' 87' |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 3/15g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Malcolm Rosas | FWD | 3 in 3g | 8/10g (2·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 58% | — | 🏉 27' 85' |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 5/8g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Corey Warner | FWD | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 40% | — | 🏉 51' 86' |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 12/11g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jai Serong | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 19 in 4g | 39/10g (6·2·3·7·0·2·4·5·7·3) | 18/7g | 2/1g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' 80' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 7 in 4g | 11/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·4·3) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 59% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 63% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 4 in 4g | 15/10g (3·2·3·1·2·0·2·1·1·0) | 3/5g | 0/1g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' 48' 74' |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 4 in 4g | 5/8g (1·0·0·0·2·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 4/14g | 0/1g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 2 in 1g | 10/10g (0·1·2·1·0·2·1·0·1·2) | 4/2g | 0/0g | 66% | — | 🏉 17' 44' |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·0·3·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 2/1g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 2 in 4g | 9/10g (2·1·2·0·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 54% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Zeke Uwland | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Alex Davies | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 9/12g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Gulbin | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Ballard | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/8g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.80 | 76% | 33 ✗ |
| Chad Warner ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.92 | 70% | 22 ✓ |
| Justin McInerney ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.92 | 74% | 27 ✗ |
| Corey Warner ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.92 | 99% | 6 ✓ |
| Callum Mills ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 64% | 25 ✗ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 24 ✗ |
| Riley Bice ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.83 | 96% | 18 ✓ |
| James Rowbottom ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 85% | 15 ✓ |
| Jake Lloyd | 18.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 11 ✓ |
| Matt Roberts | 17.5 | $1.94 | 61% | 25 ✗ |
| Jai Serong ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.94 | 75% | 12 ✓ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 25.5 | $1.88 | 47% | 20 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell | 25.5 | $1.80 | 56% | 32 ✗ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.98 | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| John Noble | 23.5 | $1.89 | 60% | 24 ✗ |
| Bodhi Uwland ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 26 ✗ |
| Joel Jeffrey ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 11 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 10 ✓ |
| Wil Powell ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.84 | 67% | 14 ✓ |
| Alex Davies ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.95 | 68% | 11 ✓ |
| Sam Clohesy | 16.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-11 10:19 UTC (latest tip update)