Win Probability
AI Game Review
St Kilda defied the model's 61% prediction for Port Adelaide, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.3 but the actual margin was 14 points. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 173.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
61%
St Kilda
39%
AI Match Overview
Port Adelaide hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though St Kilda are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Port Adelaide ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Port Adelaide carry a 104-point ELO rating advantage (1584 vs 1480). Recent form favours Port Adelaide with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 16.3 points with a combined total of 139.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @2.35
Lost ✗
Edge
+18.6%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide +8.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+24.8%
Margin Band
Port Adelaide 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 173.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | W W W W L | 108.7 |
St Kilda | W W W L L | 79.2 |
Avg Conceded
94.0
Port Adelaide
65.6
St Kilda
Avg Margin
5.3
Port Adelaide
22.8
St Kilda
Disposals
371.2
Port Adelaide
367.8
St Kilda
Inside 50s
51.9
Port Adelaide
57.5
St Kilda
ELO–Market Disagreement
Port Adelaide hold the ELO advantage (1584 vs 1480), but the market favours St Kilda (@1.74).
The model sides with ELO, Port Adelaide predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 16 points
Predicted total: 139 · Line: +16.3
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