# Port Adelaide v St Kilda — AFL Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 67 – 81 St Kilda

_St Kilda see off Port Adelaide._

Half time: 29 – 56 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 61% / St Kilda 39% · Adelaide Oval · Sun, 12 Apr, 07:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Mitch Georgiades (20' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Zak Butters (35'), Corey Durdin (39' ×2), Darcy Byrne-Jones (43'), Jason Horne-Francis (75' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Joe Berry (93') · St Kilda: Cooper Sharman (6' 1st Tipped ⚡), Mason Wood (9'), Liam Ryan (12' Tipped ⚡), Mattaes Phillipou (17' ×2), Hugo Garcia (36'), Max Hall (37'), Mitch Owens (57' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (77'), Jack Silvagni (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 61% | Lost |
| St Kilda | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 16.3 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Apr 2026, 05:24 pm · Last updated: 13 Apr 2026, 08:39 am_

Port Adelaide 67–81 St Kilda in AFL Round 5 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirteen points down at half time doesn't sound like a natural home for a comeback, but Port Adelaide found one in the third quarter, at least for twenty minutes.

St Kilda had raced out to 28-8 at quarter time and stretched it to 56-29 by half time, the sort of margin that usually just gets managed from there. Instead Port Adelaide clawed back, getting within nine points at the last change, trailing 68-59. That's the version of this game that should have finished with Port Adelaide's name on it.

It didn't. St Kilda held firm in the final term and closed it out 81-67 at Adelaide Oval. A 14-point win in the end, with St Kilda doing enough late to keep Port Adelaide at arm's length after threatening to be run down.

The disposal efficiency numbers help explain how St Kilda held on. They hit targets at 70.8 per cent to Port Adelaide's 66.2, and backed it up with 83 tackles to 70. Port Adelaide had the ball in dangerous positions plenty, 60 inside 50s to St Kilda's 39, and were far cleaner once it got there, 13 marks inside 50 against just 4. But territory without efficiency only gets you so far, and St Kilda's pressure numbers suggest they made Port Adelaide work hard for every entry rather than just handing over easy ball.

The broader numbers actually favoured Port Adelaide across the park. They finished with more disposals, 364 to 342, more contested possessions, 139 to 135, and more marks overall, 107 to 90. Their intercept count was also higher, 82 to 78. St Kilda edged clearances 35 to 34 and matched them at the ruck contest, 35 hit-outs to 34. On the raw volume stats, this reads like a Port Adelaide performance. On the scoreboard, it's a St Kilda win.

On paper this shouldn't have been close, either. Port Adelaide came in rated stronger in every key position: forwards 1121 to 965, midfield 1116 to 1024, defence 1072 to 969, ruck 1027 to 931. Recent form pointed the same way, with Port Adelaide averaging 108.7 points scored against 94 conceded, a healthy plus-5.3 average margin, while St Kilda had been losing by an average of almost 23 points a game over their last five. None of that showed up in the only column that counts.

Alphr's model had Port Adelaide at 61 per cent to win, expected them by 16.3 points on a combined total of 139. St Kilda didn't just beat the spread, they flipped the result entirely, winning by 14 in a match that finished with a combined 148 points, comfortably under the 173.5 total line the model also called correctly.

It leaves the model 1 from 4 on this one, right on the total, wrong on the winner and wrong on the margin. The gap between the pre-match numbers and the final scoreboard is a reminder that ratings and recent form describe a team's shape coming in, not what happens over four quarters at Adelaide Oval. St Kilda's third and fourth quarter composure, and their willingness to tackle harder than the volume stats suggested they should, were enough to hold off a Port Adelaide side that had every reason on paper to win comfortably and instead spent the final quarter chasing a game that had slipped away by three-quarter time.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 8 | 21 | 30 | 8 | 67 |
| St Kilda | 28 | 28 | 12 | 13 | 81 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| **364** | Disposals | 342 |
| **139** | Contested poss. | 135 |
| 34 | Clearances | **35** |
| **60** | Inside 50s | 39 |
| **107** | Marks | 90 |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 4 |
| 70 | Tackles | **83** |
| 34 | Hit-outs | **35** |
| **82** | Intercepts | 78 |
| 66.2% | Disposal eff. | **70.8%** |

**Model Report Card**

St Kilda defied the model's 61% prediction for Port Adelaide, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.3 but the actual margin was 14 points. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 173.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $2.35 (edge +18.6%) — model probability 61.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +8.5 @ $1.90 (edge +24.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 16 · Predicted total: 139

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 37 · 28 | 35 · 42 |
| Goal Assists | 4.8/g | 4.8/g |
| Disposals | 97/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 19/g | 19.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.3/g | 7.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69% | 66.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 12 | 6 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 4.8/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 144/g | 150/g |
| Inside 50s | 25/g | 26/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.3/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.3% | 68.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 6 | 5 · 2 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 102/g | 129/g |
| Inside 50s | 7.8/g | 11/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.5% | 76.5% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.74/g (lg 2.5) +10% · Forwards 4.38/g (lg 4.4) +0% · Key Forwards 3.72/g (lg 3.76) -1%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.34/g (lg 1.18) +14% · Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.49) +12% · Key Forwards 3.81/g (lg 3.76) +1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 10 in 4g | 23/10g (2·1·3·2·1·4·3·2·3·2) | 11/7g | 103/53g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 83' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 7 in 4g | 9/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·2·2·2·1) | 1/4g | 12/8g | 56% | — | 🏉 39' 85' |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 7 in 4g | 11/8g (0·0·3·1·2·0·3·2) | 0/0g | 4/4g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 79% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jack Lukosius | FWD | 6 in 3g | 14/10g (1·0·3·0·2·0·2·3·1·2) | 4/7g | 10/12g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 6 in 4g | 12/10g (0·1·1·0·1·3·0·3·1·2) | 4/5g | 40/40g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.41 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' 89' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/11g | 46/122g | 56% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 3 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 13/15g | 53% | — | — |
| – | Jack Watkins | FWD | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/9g | 27% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 4/23g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 16/58g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/7g | 11/75g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 9/31g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 8/44g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/67g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ewan Mackinlay | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/5g (1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 24/64g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/14g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 54/136g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Todd Marshall | KF | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 86/63g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 30/78g | 16% | — | 🏉 35' |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 7 in 4g | 20/10g (2·4·2·2·3·0·1·2·2·2) | 9/8g | 13/10g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 7 in 4g | 14/10g (1·1·2·2·0·1·2·2·1·2) | 6/4g | 4/5g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 57' 71' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 6 in 4g | 13/10g (2·1·1·3·0·0·1·1·1·3) | 6/5g | 8/8g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 6 in 4g | 10/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·1·4·1·0) | 1/1g | 3/2g | 65% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 5 in 4g | 17/10g (2·2·1·2·3·2·2·0·0·3) | 3/3g | 5/5g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 4 in 4g | 12/10g (2·4·0·1·1·0·1·3·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/7g | 40% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 10/20g | 10/18g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 2 in 4g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·1·5·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/4g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 2 in 4g | 8/10g (2·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 6/7g | 11/9g | 58% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 3/4g | 40% | — | 🏉 17' 77' |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dan Butler | FWD | 0 in 1g | 10/10g (2·1·0·4·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 7/8g | 11/11g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 18% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/9g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jack Carroll | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/5g | 2/5g | 28% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 4/15g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/8g | 4/11g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/5g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/8g | 24% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | 27.5 | $1.77 | 47% | 31 ✗ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 20 ✓ |
| Ollie Wines | 22.5 | $1.85 | 43% | 26 ✗ |
| Jase Burgoyne ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 15 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 20.5 | $1.84 | 57% | 26 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 19.5 | $1.90 | 43% | 19 ✓ |
| Miles Bergman | 17.5 | $1.85 | 60% | 11 ✓ |
| Logan Evans | 16.5 | $1.97 | 54% | 21 ✗ |
| Aliir Aliir | 16.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 16 ✓ |
| Jacob Wehr | 15.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 9 ✓ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 23 ✓ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.95 | 73% | 28 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 88% | 18 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 24 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 78% | 23 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill | 20.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 21 ✗ |
| Max Hall ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 14 ✓ |
| Hugo Garcia | 16.5 | $1.90 | 62% | 26 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilson ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.90 | 72% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-12 22:39 UTC (latest tip update)