Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 1.1 but the actual margin was 26 points. The game's 158 points came in 24 points higher than the predicted 134. Brisbane Lions trailed 36–32 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 66–92. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 192.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
39%
Brisbane Lions
61%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though North Melbourne are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Brisbane Lions carry a 65-point ELO rating advantage (1509 vs 1444). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts North Melbourne by 1.1 points with a combined total of 134.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.13
Winner ✓
Edge
-27.2%
Line / Spread
North Melbourne +38.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+39.6%
Margin Band
North Melbourne 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 192.5 @1.87
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | W W W L L | 84.2 |
Brisbane Lions | W W W W L | 98.0 |
Avg Conceded
71.4
North Melbourne
76.7
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
23.8
North Melbourne
-5.1
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
353.2
North Melbourne
377.0
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
56.8
North Melbourne
45.5
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 134 · Line: +1.1
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AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.