Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.1 but the actual margin was 26 points. The game's 158 points came in 24 points higher than the predicted 134. Brisbane Lions trailed 36–32 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 66–92. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 192.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
39%
Brisbane Lions
61%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though North Melbourne are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Brisbane Lions carry a 65-point ELO rating advantage (1509 vs 1444). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts North Melbourne by 1.1 points with a combined total of 134.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.13
Winner ✓
Edge
-27.2%
Line / Spread
North Melbourne +38.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+39.6%
Margin Band
North Melbourne 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 192.5 @1.87
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | W W W L L | 84.2 |
Brisbane Lions | W W W W L | 98.0 |
Avg Conceded
71.4
North Melbourne
76.7
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
23.8
North Melbourne
-5.1
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
353.2
North Melbourne
377.0
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
56.8
North Melbourne
45.5
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 134 · Line: +1.1
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