# North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 66 – 92 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions roar back to roar past North Melbourne._

Half time: 36 – 32 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 39% / Brisbane Lions 61% · Barossa Park · Sat, 11 Apr, 12:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Cooper Trembath (18' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Darling (20' Tipped ⚡), Zac Banch (22'), Paul Curtis (29' Tipped ⚡), Tom Blamires (46'), Luke Davies-Uniacke (80'), Final quarter (31m 32s)Tom Powell (65'), Nick Larkey (68' Tipped ⚡) · Brisbane Lions: Keidean Coleman (10' 1st), Oscar Allen (39' ×2), Charlie Cameron (48' Tipped ⚡), Zac Bailey (65' ×2), Kai Lohmann (67' Tipped ⚡), Lincoln McCarthy (78' ×2), Sam Draper (84' ×2), Cam Rayner (84')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 61% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.1 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Apr 2026, 05:24 pm · Last updated: 11 Apr 2026, 03:39 pm_

North Melbourne 66–92 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 5 at Barossa Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne did plenty right before it all came apart. They led at quarter time, 27 to 15, and were still in front at the main break, 36 to 32. They used the ball better all day, finishing at 73.0% disposal efficiency to Brisbane's 67.3%, and they were the cleaner side inside their own forward 50, taking 13 marks there to Brisbane's 9. On raw disposals they even shaded it, 330 to 309.

None of that mattered once the third quarter turned. Brisbane Lions outscored North Melbourne by 34 points in that period alone, going from 32 down at the break to 66-50 up at three-quarter time. That's the passage that decided the game, and North Melbourne never found an answer to it in the last quarter either, going down 92-66 at Barossa Park.

The engine room tells the story. Brisbane won the hit-out count 49 to 31, and turned that platform into 41 clearances to North Melbourne's 34. From there it was a straightforward equation: more first use of the ball, more inside 50s. Brisbane went inside 58 times to North Melbourne's 38, a gap of 20 entries that eventually buried the home side's efficiency edge.

North Melbourne's forward 50 accuracy just couldn't keep pace with that volume. Thirteen marks inside 50 is a tidy number, but when the opposition is getting the ball into their attacking zone 20 times more often, quality alone was never going to close it.

The pre-game numbers actually flagged this gap well before the siren. Brisbane rated stronger everywhere that mattered: forwards, 1025 to 953, defence, 1058 to 901, ruck, 1053 to 965, midfield, 1002 to 965. North Melbourne arrived on better recent form by the ladder, an average margin of plus-23.8 across their last five compared to Brisbane's minus-5.1, but Brisbane's underlying disposal and inside-50 numbers over that same stretch, 377 to 353 and 45.5 to 56.8, hinted at a team building towards games exactly like this one.

Alphr's model backed Brisbane at 61% and got the winner right. The margin read was nowhere close though, tipped at 1.1 points and landing at 26. The total was underestimated too, picked at 134 and finishing at 158, a 24-point miss on that front, though the under call on 192.5 still held up. North Melbourne also covered the 38.5-point line. Three from four for the model on this one: winner right, both totals-adjacent calls right, margin badly wrong.

North Melbourne's front-half work and ball use were genuinely good. It just wasn't enough against a Brisbane side that controlled the contest at the source and cashed it in during that third-quarter burst.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 27 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 66 |
| Brisbane Lions | 15 | 17 | 34 | 26 | 92 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| **330** | Disposals | 309 |
| 130 | Contested poss. | **131** |
| 34 | Clearances | **41** |
| 38 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| 79 | Marks | **80** |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| 59 | Tackles | **62** |
| 31 | Hit-outs | **49** |
| 54 | Intercepts | **59** |
| **73.0%** | Disposal eff. | 67.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.1 but the actual margin was 26 points. The game's 158 points came in 24 points higher than the predicted 134. Brisbane Lions trailed 36–32 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 66–92. The model went 3/4 on this match. North Melbourne covered the 38.5-point line. The under 192.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.13 (edge -27.2%) — model probability 61.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +38.5 @ $1.89 (edge +39.6%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 192.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 1 · Predicted total: 134

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 42 · 28 | 44 · 32 |
| Goal Assists | 5.3/g | 5.5/g |
| Disposals | 99/g | 86/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.5/g | 17.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.5/g | 9.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.3% | 65.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 13 | 8 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 155/g | 171/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.8/g | 23.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.4% | 74.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 5 | 5 · 5 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 137/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.5/g | 15.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.1% | 75.8% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Rucks 0.5/g (lg 0.49) +2% · Forwards 4.19/g (lg 4.4) -5% · Midfielders 2.31/g (lg 2.5) -8%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Key Forwards 5.26/g (lg 3.76) +40% · Defenders 1.54/g (lg 1.18) +31% · Rucks 0.62/g (lg 0.49) +27%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Barossa Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 14 in 4g | 31/10g (0·3·1·5·5·3·4·6·2·2) | 12/7g | 2/1g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 8 in 4g | 17/7g (3·3·3·3·0·2·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 91' |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 7 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·3) | 1/2g | 2/1g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 6 in 4g | 15/10g (3·0·3·2·0·1·2·2·1·1) | 6/7g | 1/1g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 6 in 4g | 18/10g (2·0·2·0·5·3·1·2·1·2) | 1/1g | 2/1g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 2 in 3g | 13/10g (3·1·1·1·3·1·1·1·0·1) | 30/14g | 2/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/11g | 2/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 17/14g | 0/1g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Callum Coleman-Jones | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 30% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Zac Banch | FWD | 0 in 1g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 22' |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 9 in 4g | 21/10g (2·2·2·3·1·2·2·1·2·4) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 8 in 4g | 19/10g (3·2·1·0·1·4·4·2·2·0) | 23/14g | 0/0g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 8 in 3g | 21/10g (3·4·1·1·2·1·1·3·2·3) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 7 in 4g | 15/10g (0·2·2·4·0·0·1·1·2·3) | 15/7g | 0/0g | 72% | — | 🏉 39' 87' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 5 in 3g | 18/10g (2·2·0·1·3·2·3·1·2·2) | 8/9g | 0/0g | 84% | — | 🏉 65' 92' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 4 in 4g | 15/10g (2·2·3·1·2·1·1·1·2·0) | 8/8g | 0/0g | 72% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lincoln McCarthy | FWD | 3 in 3g | 9/10g (1·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·2) | 13/10g | 0/0g | 74% | — | 🏉 78' 66' |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 13/18g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Keidean Coleman | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 1 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·4·0) | 8/11g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 0 in 3g | 9/10g (1·1·1·3·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 54% | — | 🏉 84' 83' |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 29.5 | $1.76 | 49% | 30 ✗ |
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.94 | 68% | 22 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 25.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 27 ✗ |
| Luke Parker | 23.5 | $1.92 | 61% | 25 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 23.5 | $1.92 | 58% | 18 ✓ |
| Tom Powell ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 69% | 12 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 19.5 | $1.91 | 41% | 27 ✗ |
| Dylan Stephens | 18.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 13 ✓ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.89 | 76% | 19 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.80 | 76% | 8 ✓ |
| Lachie Neale | 27.5 | $1.92 | 59% | 30 ✗ |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.85 | 65% | 20 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 69% | 13 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.89 | 65% | 14 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 68% | 12 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 21 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 66% | 18 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-11 05:39 UTC (latest tip update)