Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.6 but the actual margin was 40 points. The game's 168 points came in 24 points higher than the predicted 145. Hawthorn led 47–19 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 40. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 182.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
62%
Western Bulldogs
38%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Western Bulldogs are far from out of this at 38%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Western Bulldogs carry a 21-point ELO rating advantage (1572 vs 1551). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 9.6 points with a combined total of 145.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.69
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.5%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -5.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.1%
Margin Band
Hawthorn 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 182.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | W W W L L | 97.4 |
Western Bulldogs | W L L L L | 107.8 |
Avg Conceded
97.4
Hawthorn
73.3
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-3.2
Hawthorn
5.5
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
330.2
Hawthorn
340.2
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
44.0
Hawthorn
45.5
Western Bulldogs
ELO–Market Disagreement
Western Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1572 vs 1551), but the market favours Hawthorn (@1.69).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 145 · Line: +9.6
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