# GWS GIANTS v Richmond — AFL Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 131 – 75 Richmond

_GWS GIANTS put Richmond to the sword._

Half time: 73 – 40 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 50% / Richmond 50% · Barossa Park · Sun, 12 Apr, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Brent Daniels (4' ×3 1st), Aaron Cadman (6' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Toby Greene (9' Tipped ⚡), Jesse Hogan (22' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jake Stringer (45' Tipped ⚡), Toby Bedford (52' ×2), Ryan Angwin (84' ×2), Oliver Hannaford (87' ×2), Jake Riccardi (66' ×2 Tipped ⚡) · Richmond: Campbell Gray (16'), Sam Lalor (32' Tipped ⚡), Liam Fawcett (38' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Tim Taranto (48'), Seth Campbell (60'), Mykelti Lefau (67' ×4 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 50% | Won |
| Richmond | 50% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 15.1 predicted → 56 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs Richmond Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 5, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Apr 2026, 05:24 pm · Last updated: 12 Apr 2026, 06:56 pm_

GWS GIANTS 131–75 Richmond in AFL Round 5 at Barossa Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fifty-two to fourteen. That was the scoreboard after one quarter at Barossa Park, and from there GWS Giants never let Richmond within cooee.

By half time it was 73-40, the margin already sitting past the model's pre-match pick of 15.1 points for the whole match. Three-quarter time had it at 104-67, and Richmond spent the last stanza just watching the door close, GWS piling on another 27 points to Richmond's 8 to finish it out 131-75. A 56-point win, more than triple what anyone had pencilled in beforehand.

The oddity of this one is that Richmond actually won two of the categories you'd usually build a win around. They took clearances 39-35 and inside 50s 59-54, both edges that lined up with their form line coming in, where they'd been averaging 56.2 inside 50s a game to GWS's 44.9. Territory wasn't the problem. What they did with it was.

Marks inside 50 tell that story in six words: 13 to 7, GWS's way. Richmond kept getting the ball forward and kept fumbling the finish, while GWS made nearly double the use of fewer entries. That's the gap between winning the count and winning the game.

Everywhere else, GWS simply had more footy and more grunt to back it up. Disposals went 425-333, contested possessions 152-135, and the ruck battle was a rout: 53 hit-

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 52 | 21 | 31 | 27 | 131 |
| Richmond | 14 | 26 | 27 | 8 | 75 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **425** | Disposals | 333 |
| **152** | Contested poss. | 135 |
| 35 | Clearances | **39** |
| 54 | Inside 50s | **59** |
| **90** | Marks | 79 |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| 52 | Tackles | **54** |
| **53** | Hit-outs | 19 |
| **73** | Intercepts | 66 |
| **74.1%** | Disposal eff. | 73.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 50% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 15.1 but the actual margin was 56 points. The game's 206 points came in 75 points higher than the predicted 132. GWS GIANTS led 73–40 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 56. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.13 (edge -38.4%) — model probability 50.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +37.5 @ $1.90 (edge +22.4%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.85 (edge +0.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 15 · Predicted total: 132

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 32 · 42 | 24 · 37 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 95/g |
| Inside 50s | 24/g | 19/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.3/g | 8.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.6% | 69% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 12 | 3 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 137/g | 101/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.8/g | 14.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.3% | 66.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 0 · 5 | 3 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 147/g | 137/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.5/g | 12/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 84.5% | 78.9% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.82/g (lg 3.75) +29% · Rucks 0.62/g (lg 0.49) +27% · Midfielders 2.86/g (lg 2.48) +15%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Defenders 1.23/g (lg 1.18) +4% · Rucks 0.49/g (lg 0.49) +0% · Forwards 4.26/g (lg 4.42) -4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Barossa Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 8 in 4g | 22/10g (4·3·3·1·3·0·5·0·1·2) | 19/13g | 0/0g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 5 in 4g | 9/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·3·1·0·1) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' 69' |
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 5 in 4g | 19/10g (6·2·1·2·0·3·3·0·2·0) | 19/12g | 0/0g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 29' |
| – | Phoenix Gothard | FWD | 4 in 4g | 4/4g (1·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 75% | — | — |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 4/11g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 2 in 4g | 14/10g (2·1·3·2·4·0·0·1·0·1) | 26/16g | 0/0g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 84' 77' |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | no games | 23/10g (3·2·6·1·3·2·4·2·0·0) | 4/3g | 0/0g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 6' 7' 28' 72' |
| – | Brent Daniels | FWD | no games | 5/10g (1·3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 4' 23' 81' |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/13g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nicholas Madden | RUC | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hannaford | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 87' 90' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | no games | 12/10g (1·1·1·0·2·1·1·2·1·2) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 52% | — | 🏉 52' 78' |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 5 in 4g | 10/10g (1·0·0·2·2·0·2·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 5 in 4g | 9/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·2·0·3·0) | 5/2g | 1/1g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 3 in 4g | 10/10g (0·2·0·0·3·2·0·3·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Liam Fawcett | KF | 2 in 1g | 3/2g (1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.41 AI 82% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' 59' 96' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (1·3·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 3/3g | 0/1g | 42% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 6/17g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 2/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 1 in 3g | 9/10g (1·2·0·1·2·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.58 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' 70' 82' 87' |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Gray | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hayes-Brown | RUC | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 20% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield | 29.5 | $1.89 | 60% | 31 ✗ |
| Clayton Oliver | 29.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 31 ✗ |
| Finn Callaghan ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 37 ✗ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.90 | 75% | 35 ✗ |
| Toby Greene ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.90 | 70% | 29 ✗ |
| Connor Idun ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.88 | 72% | 17 ✓ |
| Harvey Thomas ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 20 ✓ |
| Stephen Coniglio | 19.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 7 ✓ |
| Joe Fonti ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.86 | 81% | 14 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg | 18.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 13 ✓ |
| Ryan Angwin | 17.5 | $1.82 | 54% | 14 ✓ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 25.5 | $1.93 | 62% | 25 ✓ |
| Jacob Hopper | 23.5 | $1.91 | 43% | 26 ✗ |
| Jayden Short | 22.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 23 ✗ |
| Dion Prestia | 21.5 | $1.83 | 44% | 20 ✓ |
| Sam Banks | 20.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 17 ✓ |
| Tyler Sonsie | 18.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 17 ✓ |
| Jack Ross | 18.5 | $1.87 | 32% | 19 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 18.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 11 ✓ |
| Sam Grlj ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 14 ✓ |
| Sam Lalor ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.90 | 73% | 18 ✗ |
| Ben Miller | 13.5 | $1.89 | 50% | 15 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-12 08:56 UTC (latest tip update)