Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 50% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 15.1 but the actual margin was 56 points. The game's 206 points came in 75 points higher than the predicted 132. GWS GIANTS led 73–40 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 56. The model went 1/4 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
50%
Richmond
50%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives GWS GIANTS a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. GWS GIANTS carry a 50-point ELO rating advantage (1498 vs 1448). Recent form favours Richmond with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for GWS GIANTS. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 15.1 points with a combined total of 132.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.13
Winner ✓
Edge
-38.4%
Line / Spread
Richmond +37.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+22.4%
Margin Band
GWS GIANTS 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 180.5 @1.85
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | W L L L L | 81.3 |
Richmond | W W L L L | 70.2 |
Avg Conceded
96.4
GWS GIANTS
84.8
Richmond
Avg Margin
14.8
GWS GIANTS
0.6
Richmond
Disposals
341.9
GWS GIANTS
374.9
Richmond
Inside 50s
44.9
GWS GIANTS
56.2
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
50%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 15 points
Predicted total: 132 · Line: +15.1
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