Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.2 but the actual margin was 46 points. The game's 198 points came in 64 points higher than the predicted 134. Geelong Cats led 68–38 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 46. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
69%
West Coast Eagles
31%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Geelong Cats carry a 25-point ELO rating advantage (1512 vs 1488). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for West Coast Eagles. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 16.2 points with a combined total of 134.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.10
Winner ✓
Edge
-21.9%
Line / Spread
West Coast Eagles +47.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+31.3%
Margin Band
Geelong Cats 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 194.5 @1.87
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | W W L L L | 104.3 |
West Coast Eagles | W L L L L | 76.0 |
Avg Conceded
85.2
Geelong Cats
77.6
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
10.2
Geelong Cats
0.4
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
375.8
Geelong Cats
370.2
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
55.0
Geelong Cats
56.9
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 16 points
Predicted total: 134 · Line: +16.2
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