# Geelong Cats v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 122 – 76 West Coast Eagles

_Geelong Cats claw past West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 68 – 38 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 69% / West Coast Eagles 31% · Norwood Oval · Sun, 12 Apr, 12:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Oliver Wiltshire (12'), Shannon Neale (23' Tipped ⚡), Bailey Smith (25'), Mark OConnor (28' ×3), James Worpel (41'), Brad Close (54'), Jeremy Cameron (58' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jack Bowes (65'), Oliver Henry (79' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam De Koning (88'), Final quarter (30m 49s)Brad Close (68') · West Coast Eagles: Harry Schoenberg (9' 1st), Matthew Owies (19'), Liam Baker (29'), Willem Duursma (38'), Jobe Shanahan (44' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Jack Graham (74'), Jake Waterman (75' Tipped ⚡), Harley Reid (95')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 69% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 16.2 predicted → 46 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs West Coast Eagles Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 5, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Apr 2026, 05:24 pm · Last updated: 12 Apr 2026, 03:48 pm_

Geelong Cats 122–76 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 5 at Norwood Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seven points separated these two at quarter time, Geelong Cats up 29-22, and West Coast Eagles were still very much in it. That lasted about as long as it took Geelong to hit the accelerator.

By half time the margin had gone from seven to thirty, Geelong Cats 68, West Coast Eagles 38. Whatever containment the Eagles had in the first term evaporated in the second, and from there the game had the shape of a procession rather than a contest. Three-quarter time, 97-62. Full time, 122-76. A 46-point win, and the gap only ever grew.

The clearance count tells you where it started. Geelong won that battle 42-34, and turned it into 67 inside 50s to West Coast's 42, a gulf of 25 forward entries. That's not a team that got lucky with the footy, that's a team that had it more often and used it better. Geelong finished with 379 disposals to 329, and when they got it forward they made it count, 16 marks inside 50 to West Coast's 9.

Defensively Geelong were just as tidy. 76 intercepts to 67, and 71 tackles to West Coast's 51, the kind of pressure numbers that explain why the Eagles never really settled into their own game plan. Disposal efficiency was almost identical between the two sides, 69.9% to 69.6%, so this wasn't decided by who fumbled more. It was decided by volume and contested footy, Geelong pulling in 144 contested possessions to West Coast's 119.

The one number West Coast can hang their hat on is hit-outs, 41 to 39 in their favour. Didn't matter much when the clearances still went the other way.

None of this should surprise anyone who looked at the raw form. Geelong came in averaging 104 points a game to West Coast's 76, and their average winning margin over the last five was over 10 points against West Coast sitting at less than one. The pre-match ratings had Geelong's midfield at 1029 to West Coast's 952 and the ruck at 1069 to 1038, and both edges showed up exactly where you'd expect, at the coalface and around the ball.

Alphr's model backed Geelong at 69% and got the winner right. The margin was another story. Predicted at 16.2, the actual gap was 46, and the total blew out too, 198 points played against a projected 134. Two out of four on this one. West Coast, for what it's worth, covered the 47.5-point line, so there's a small mercy in there somewhere for anyone who backed the underdog on the numbers.

Geelong controlled the ball, controlled the territory and never let the margin go backwards once it opened up. West Coast had a promising first quarter and not much after it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 29 | 39 | 29 | 25 | 122 |
| West Coast Eagles | 22 | 16 | 24 | 14 | 76 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **379** | Disposals | 329 |
| **144** | Contested poss. | 119 |
| **42** | Clearances | 34 |
| **67** | Inside 50s | 42 |
| **95** | Marks | 72 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **71** | Tackles | 51 |
| 39 | Hit-outs | **41** |
| **76** | Intercepts | 67 |
| **69.9%** | Disposal eff. | 69.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.2 but the actual margin was 46 points. The game's 198 points came in 64 points higher than the predicted 134. Geelong Cats led 68–38 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 46. The model went 2/4 on this match. West Coast Eagles covered the 47.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.10 (edge -21.9%) — model probability 69.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +47.5 @ $1.89 (edge +31.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 194.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 16 · Predicted total: 134

### H2H History (Last 5) — Geelong Cats lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R12 | West Coast Eagles | 73 – 116 | Geelong Cats |
| 2024 | R24 | Geelong Cats | 168 – 75 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2023 | R5 | Geelong Cats | 136 – 89 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2022 | R23 | Geelong Cats | 131 – 46 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2022 | R14 | West Coast Eagles | 63 – 81 | Geelong Cats |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 33 · 41 | 23 · 47 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 94/g | 85/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.8/g | 13.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10/g | 7.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 62.3% | 67% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 10 | 16 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 139/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.8/g | 21.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.5% | 70.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 4 | 1 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 141/g | 101/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.3/g | 10/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 0/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.7% | 80.9% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.76/g (lg 0.49) +55% · Midfielders 3.52/g (lg 2.48) +42% · Forwards 5.54/g (lg 4.42) +25%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.89/g (lg 3.75) +4% · Forwards 4.29/g (lg 4.42) -3% · Midfielders 2.22/g (lg 2.48) -10%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Norwood Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 10 in 4g | 23/10g (3·3·4·1·1·1·1·5·0·4) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 7 in 4g | 17/10g (1·1·1·3·0·4·4·0·2·1) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 81% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 6 in 3g | 13/10g (1·1·1·2·0·1·1·2·1·3) | 9/5g | 0/0g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' 91' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 5 in 4g | 16/10g (3·3·2·0·2·1·1·3·1·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 81% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 4 in 3g | 23/10g (6·4·0·4·2·3·0·3·0·1) | 34/14g | 0/0g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' 77' 73' |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 2 in 1g | 9/10g (1·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·2) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 56% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Wiltshire | FWD | 1 in 2g | 2/4g (0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/7g | 0/0g | 52% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/9g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jake Kolodjashnij | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 0/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Edwards | RUC | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Tanner Bruhn | DEF | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 9 in 4g | 24/10g (4·2·3·1·2·3·3·1·4·1) | 8/7g | 0/0g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 5 in 4g | 5/4g (0·2·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 75% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 3 in 4g | 11/10g (1·0·1·3·0·3·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 44' 85' 96' 76' |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Duff-Tytler | KF | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.79 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·2·2·0·0·2·0) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 42% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 0/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | no games | 7/10g (0·3·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Deven Robertson | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | no games | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Harry Schoenberg | FWD | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Josh Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/4g | 0/0g | 54% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 31.5 | $1.91 | 62% | 34 ✗ |
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.89 | 64% | 34 ✗ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 75% | 19 ✓ |
| Tanner Bruhn ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.90 | 89% | 28 ✗ |
| Tom Stewart | 22.5 | $1.91 | 59% | 14 ✓ |
| James Worpel | 20.5 | $1.95 | 51% | 20 ✓ |
| Tom Atkins | 19.5 | $1.91 | 51% | 30 ✗ |
| Lawson Humphries ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 69% | 18 ✗ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 16.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 8 ✓ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 15.5 | $1.90 | 33% | 16 ✗ |
| Zach Guthrie | 15.5 | $1.93 | 50% | 13 ✓ |
| Jeremy Cameron | 14.5 | $1.81 | 57% | 13 ✓ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kelly ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 22 ✓ |
| Deven Robertson ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 99% | 15 ✓ |
| Liam Baker | 19.5 | $1.95 | 52% | 13 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 19.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 22 ✗ |
| Harley Reid | 19.5 | $1.87 | 39% | 22 ✗ |
| Jack Graham ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 14 ✓ |
| Tom McCarthy | 19.5 | $1.91 | 51% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Lindsay ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.90 | 67% | 21 ✗ |
| Willem Duursma | 15.5 | $1.86 | 31% | 20 ✗ |
| Bo Allan | 13.5 | $1.86 | 47% | 9 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-12 05:48 UTC (latest tip update)