# Essendon v Melbourne — AFL Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 113 – 68 Melbourne

_Essendon fight back to stun Melbourne._

Half time: 44 – 50 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 43% / Melbourne 57% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 11 Apr, 01:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Tom Edwards (7' ×2 1st), Xavier Duursma (16' ×2), Elijah Tsatas (25'), Archie May (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Durham (55'), Isaac Kako (60' ×2), Archie Roberts (74'), Nate Caddy (78' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jade Gresham (89'), Zach Merrett (70'), Peter Wright (88' Tipped ⚡) · Melbourne: Bayley Fritsch (9' Tipped ⚡), Latrelle Pickett (11'), Harry Sharp (28'), Kysaiah Pickett (39' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tom Sparrow (42'), Kade Chandler (48'), Brody Mihocek (52' Tipped ⚡), Harvey Langford (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 57% | Lost |
| Essendon | 43% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.3 predicted → 45 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Apr 2026, 05:24 pm · Last updated: 11 Apr 2026, 05:38 pm_

Essendon 113–68 Melbourne in AFL Round 5 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Melbourne led at half time. Worth saying twice, because nothing about the final scoreboard suggests it. Essendon went on to win 113-68 at Adelaide Oval, but for a stretch in the first half it was Melbourne doing the pushing.

Essendon were up 23-19 at quarter time, nothing in it. Melbourne then outscored them through the second term and turned that four-point gap into a six-point lead, 50-44 at the main break. A modest push, but a real one. Anyone tuning in at half time would've had Melbourne fancied.

Then the third quarter happened. Essendon put on 37 points to Melbourne's 9, the sort of quarter that doesn't leave much argument. A six-point deficit became a 22-point lead, 81-59, inside twenty minutes of footy. That's where the game actually turned, not at the final siren.

The fourth was more of the same, just with the margin stretched further. Essendon added another 32 to Melbourne's 9, extending out to the eventual 45-point win. Two quarters, 69 points to 18. That's not a team hanging on, that's a team that had simply taken the game away from its opponent.

The disposal count explains how it happened. Essendon finished with 441 to Melbourne's 332, and did more with it too, hitting targets at 76.4% against Melbourne's 71.1%. Contested possessions went their way, 142 to 115, and clearances 40 to 32, which lines up oddly with a midfield rating that was close on paper coming in, 1052 to 1048. Whatever the numbers said before the bounce, Essendon won that battle comfortably where it counted.

Marks were the standout column. Essendon took 139 to Melbourne's 78, and led 11 to 9 inside 50. That's a defensive unit rated well clear of Melbourne's, 1072 to 973, doing its job at the other end too, mopping up and handing Essendon extra chances forward of centre.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 23 | 21 | 37 | 32 | 113 |
| Melbourne | 19 | 31 | 9 | 9 | 68 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **441** | Disposals | 332 |
| **142** | Contested poss. | 115 |
| **40** | Clearances | 32 |
| **54** | Inside 50s | 52 |
| **139** | Marks | 78 |
| **11** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| 45 | Tackles | **54** |
| 21 | Hit-outs | **39** |
| **72** | Intercepts | 66 |
| **76.4%** | Disposal eff. | 71.1% |

**Model Report Card**

Essendon defied the model's 57% prediction for Melbourne, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.3 but the actual margin was 45 points. The game's 181 points came in 44 points higher than the predicted 137. Essendon trailed 44–50 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 113–68. The model went 2/4 on this match. Essendon covered the 25.5-point line. The under 185.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.26 (edge -22.2%) — model probability 57.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +25.5 @ $1.90 (edge +25.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Melbourne Draw @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 185.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 0 · Predicted total: 137

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 21 · 45 | 37 · 40 |
| Goal Assists | 2/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 62/g | 100/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.8/g | 24/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.3/g | 8.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 63.1% | 64.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 17 · 14 | 18 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 125/g | 128/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.5/g | 22.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.9% | 68% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 3 · 7 | 3 · 2 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 149/g | 118/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.5/g | 12/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.1% | 77.5% |

**Who scores on Melbourne** — Defenders 1.48/g (lg 1.18) +25% · Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.49) +6% · Forwards 4.38/g (lg 4.4) +0%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Forwards 5.16/g (lg 4.4) +17% · Defenders 1.38/g (lg 1.18) +17% · Key Forwards 4.18/g (lg 3.75) +11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 6 in 3g | 14/10g (2·0·0·1·3·1·1·1·4·1) | 2/2g | 6/2g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' 74' |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 4 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·3) | 13/13g | 13/13g | 50% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 4 in 4g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 0/3g | 3/8g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 4 in 4g | 10/10g (2·0·1·1·2·0·1·0·2·1) | 11/8g | 6/6g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 88' |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/5g | 40% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Archer May | KF | 2 in 3g | 9/10g (0·2·3·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.62 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' 72' |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·0·2·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 61% | — | 🏉 60' 87' |
| – | Thomas Edwards | FWD | 2 in 1g | 5/3g (3·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | 🏉 7' 90' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 4/4g | 21/44g | 42% | — | 🏉 16' 76' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/11g | 4/17g | 34% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/5g | 17/14g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/13g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 0 in 2g | 1/7g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 7% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Parish | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 3/15g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Tsatas | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 19% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Jacob Farrow | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Ridley | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sullivan Robey | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 7 in 3g | 24/10g (3·2·3·4·2·0·3·1·2·4) | 15/8g | 30/16g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 7 in 4g | 11/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·3·1·1·2) | 22/12g | 15/11g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' |
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 7 in 4g | 14/10g (1·0·2·1·2·1·6·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 8/7g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 81% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 5 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 38% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 4 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·2·0) | 6/11g | 10/19g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 4 in 4g | 11/10g (0·1·3·1·1·1·0·0·2·2) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 50% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Jake Melksham | FWD | 4 in 1g | 26/10g (5·4·5·1·2·1·2·0·2·4) | 8/7g | 12/10g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 92% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 4 in 4g | 9/10g (0·2·1·1·1·0·1·1·2·0) | 2/3g | 3/7g | 58% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 4 in 4g | 14/10g (5·1·0·1·1·2·1·1·1·1) | 6/6g | 21/13g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' 82' |
| – | Latrelle Pickett | FWD | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 3/14g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/5g | 7/13g | 32% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 2/16g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 2/13g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jai Culley | MID | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/2g | 37% | — | — |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Blake Howes | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/1g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 0 in 4g | 9/10g (1·0·3·2·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/9g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lever | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/42g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tom McDonald | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 16/17g | 8% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | 26.5 | $1.95 | 53% | 42 ✗ |
| Zach Merrett | 24.5 | $1.88 | 36% | 31 ✗ |
| Darcy Parish | 22.5 | $1.90 | 41% | 34 ✗ |
| Jye Caldwell | 22.5 | $1.91 | 43% | 16 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 22.5 | $1.91 | 40% | 13 ✓ |
| Sam Durham | 19.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 16 ✓ |
| Jaxon Prior | 17.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 17 ✓ |
| Jacob Farrow | 17.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 22 ✗ |
| Xavier Duursma | 17.5 | $1.95 | 45% | 21 ✗ |

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.91 | 80% | 28 ✗ |
| Jack Steele | 24.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 28 ✗ |
| Christian Salem | 23.5 | $1.87 | 41% | 12 ✓ |
| Max Gawn | 22.5 | $1.88 | 51% | 22 ✓ |
| Tom Sparrow ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.83 | 78% | 18 ✓ |
| Caleb Windsor ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 77% | 7 ✓ |
| Xavier Lindsay ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 73% | 16 ✓ |
| Ed Langdon | 17.5 | $1.78 | 37% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-11 07:38 UTC (latest tip update)