Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Essendon
43%
Melbourne
57%
AI Match Overview
Melbourne hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Essendon are far from out of this at 43%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Recent form favours Essendon with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Melbourne.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Melbourne to Win @1.26
Lost ✗
Edge
-22.2%
Line / Spread
Essendon +25.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+25.2%
Margin Band
Melbourne Draw @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 185.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | W W L L L | 94.0 |
Melbourne | W L L L L | 73.9 |
Avg Conceded
81.8
Essendon
69.8
Melbourne
Avg Margin
8.7
Essendon
7.3
Melbourne
Disposals
370.3
Essendon
337.8
Melbourne
Inside 50s
57.4
Essendon
56.5
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Melbourne predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 137 · Line: -0.3
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.