Win Probability
AI Game Review
Fremantle defied the model's 63% prediction for Collingwood, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.4 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 84 points came in 54 points lower than the predicted 138. Fremantle trailed 23–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 39–45. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 170.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
63%
Fremantle
37%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Fremantle are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 5.4 points with a combined total of 138.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @2.67
Lost ✗
Edge
+25.4%
Line / Spread
Collingwood +12.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+17.9%
Margin Band
Collingwood 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 170.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | W W L L L | 93.9 |
Fremantle | W W L L L | 76.4 |
Avg Conceded
75.2
Collingwood
66.1
Fremantle
Avg Margin
-3.8
Collingwood
-1.9
Fremantle
Disposals
361.1
Collingwood
356.7
Fremantle
Inside 50s
54.9
Collingwood
46.9
Fremantle
ELO–Market Disagreement
Collingwood hold the ELO advantage (1512 vs 1511), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.60).
The model sides with ELO, Collingwood predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Collingwood predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 138 · Line: +5.4
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.