# Collingwood v Fremantle — AFL Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 39 – 45 Fremantle

_Fremantle surge back to topple Collingwood._

Half time: 23 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 63% / Fremantle 37% · Adelaide Oval · Fri, 10 Apr, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Ned Long (40'), Daniel McStay (46'), Angus Anderson (76'), Jack Crisp (83') · Fremantle: Sam Switkowski (21' 1st), Shai Bolton (34' Tipped ⚡), Jye Amiss (61' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Isaiah Dudley (62' Tipped ⚡), Matthew Johnson (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 63% | Lost |
| Fremantle | 37% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.4 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood vs Fremantle Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 5, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Apr 2026, 05:24 pm · Last updated: 10 Apr 2026, 10:26 pm_

Collingwood 39–45 Fremantle in AFL Round 5 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle 45, Collingwood 39. A six-point win at Adelaide Oval, tight enough on paper. But split the scoreline in half and it's a different story: Fremantle trailed 36-32 at three-quarter time, then outscored Collingwood in the final term to get home. That late shift is the number that actually decided this, not the six points on the final ledger.

Collingwood led at every change before that. Eight to seven at quarter time, 23 to 14 at half time, 36 to 32 at three-quarter time. All the shape of a comfortable home performance turning into a genuine contest for the Dockers, who found a way through in the last quarter to steal it.

The stat sheet says Collingwood should have won this comfortably. More disposals, 364 to 351. More inside 50s, 61 to 45, a gap of 16 entries that normally settles a game on its own. More marks, 101 to 81, more marks inside 50, 10 to 5, and well ahead on the defensive pressure numbers, 92 tackles to 62. Better disposal efficiency too, 72.0 per cent to 70.4. On effort and territory, this was Collingwood's afternoon.

Fremantle won it where it's actually decided: the contest itself. Fremantle had 144 contested possessions to 138, took 34 clearances to 30, and dominated the ruck battle, 47 hit-outs to 27. That ruck number lines up with the pre-match positional ratings, which had Fremantle's ruck stocks ahead 1050 to 1029, and their forward line rated well clear too, 1054 to 975. Collingwood held a narrow edge in defence, 1067 to 1060, but couldn't shut the door when it mattered in the last quarter.

Form lines going in suggested this was more live than the market thought. Fremantle came in with a better recent win rate than Collingwood over their last five, 1.95 to 1.55, and a tighter average losing margin, minus 1.9 points to Collingwood's minus 3.8, despite scoring less on average, 76.4 points to Collingwood's 93.9. Collingwood's defence had also been leakier, conceding 75.2 points a game on average against Fremantle's 66.1. None of that guaranteed an upset, but it wasn't exactly out of nowhere either.

Alphr's model had Collingwood as the 63 per cent favourite, expected to win by 5.4 points in a game projected to produce 138 combined points. Fremantle defied the head-to-head tip, but the model's margin call held up reasonably well against the actual six-point result. The total was nowhere close, though. The teams combined for 84 points, a full 54 down on the projection, in a genuinely low-scoring affair for both sides. Collingwood still covered the 12.5-point line, and the under on the 170.5 total landed easily. Two calls right, two wrong: a mixed night for the model, and a reminder that clearances and hit-outs can matter more than territory when the ball actually stops moving forward.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 8 | 15 | 13 | 3 | 39 |
| Fremantle | 7 | 7 | 18 | 13 | 45 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| **364** | Disposals | 351 |
| 138 | Contested poss. | **144** |
| 30 | Clearances | **34** |
| **61** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **101** | Marks | 81 |
| **10** | Marks inside 50 | 5 |
| **92** | Tackles | 62 |
| 27 | Hit-outs | **47** |
| **82** | Intercepts | 76 |
| **72.0%** | Disposal eff. | 70.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Fremantle defied the model's 63% prediction for Collingwood, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.4 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 84 points came in 54 points lower than the predicted 138. Fremantle trailed 23–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 39–45. The model went 2/4 on this match. Collingwood covered the 12.5-point line. The under 170.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $2.67 (edge +25.4%) — model probability 62.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +12.5 @ $1.90 (edge +17.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 5 · Predicted total: 138

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 33 · 37 | 35 · 29 |
| Goal Assists | 5/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 111/g | 81/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.8/g | 14.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.8/g | 9.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.8% | 68.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 7 | 20 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 5/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 181/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.5/g | 31.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.7% | 71% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 1 · 2 | 0 · 2 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 137/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.3/g | 9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.9% | 80.6% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.31/g (lg 4.42) -2% · Midfielders 2.24/g (lg 2.48) -10% · Key Forwards 3.29/g (lg 3.76) -12%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.58/g (lg 0.49) +18% · Defenders 1.21/g (lg 1.18) +3% · Midfielders 2.31/g (lg 2.48) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 7 in 4g | 10/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·2·4) | 14/12g | 6/10g | 70% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 6 in 4g | 11/10g (1·1·0·2·0·1·2·2·1·1) | 1/3g | 10/7g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 60% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 6 in 4g | 12/10g (1·1·2·0·0·2·0·1·4·1) | 18/10g | 20/16g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 68% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 5 in 4g | 18/10g (1·0·2·2·4·4·1·2·1·1) | 21/12g | 28/13g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 4 in 4g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·3·0·0·1) | 9/9g | 5/10g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 4 in 3g | 10/10g (3·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·2) | 3/6g | 7/8g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | 4 in 4g | 4/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 5/8g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 30/93g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 5/8g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 10/15g | 6/15g | 36% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/3g | 26% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Oscar Steene | RUC | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Angus Anderson | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 7/17g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/15g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/12g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 0/11g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 4/10g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 4/11g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/14g | 4/13g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 0 in 4g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/17g | 7/16g | 30% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 12 in 4g | 24/10g (0·3·2·2·3·2·2·4·4·2) | 7/5g | 9/7g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 84% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 8 in 4g | 14/10g (1·0·1·2·0·2·3·3·1·1) | 1/1g | 1/2g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 7 in 4g | 17/10g (3·3·0·0·3·1·1·0·2·4) | 3/5g | 8/5g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' 74' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 5 in 4g | 11/10g (1·0·2·0·2·1·2·2·0·1) | 7/8g | 14/14g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 34' |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 4 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 1/7g | 1/8g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 4 in 4g | 19/10g (3·3·3·0·3·3·0·1·1·2) | 8/2g | 5/2g | 81% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 78% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 4/10g | 2/11g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 3 in 4g | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·2·1·1·1·1·0) | 6/7g | 5/11g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 3 in 4g | 10/10g (1·1·2·1·1·1·1·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/2g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 18% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/9g | 3/9g | 44% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 1/5g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/10g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 2/10g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/10g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.94 | 81% | 23 ✓ |
| Dan Houston ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 87% | 14 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 18.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 23 ✗ |
| Brayden Maynard | 17.5 | $1.94 | 61% | 17 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 17 ✗ |
| Jordan De Goey | 16.5 | $1.94 | 59% | 6 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.90 | 76% | 13 ✓ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 16.5 | $1.90 | 41% | 14 ✓ |
| Harry Perryman | 15.5 | $1.80 | 61% | 16 ✗ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | 30.5 | $1.91 | 59% | 24 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 27.5 | $1.82 | 50% | 19 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | 25.5 | $1.80 | 62% | 27 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton | 23.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 17 ✓ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 22 ✓ |
| Neil Erasmus | 20.5 | $1.90 | 52% | 18 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 19.5 | $1.86 | 44% | 17 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 18.5 | $1.87 | 33% | 25 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson | 18.5 | $1.91 | 39% | 10 ✓ |
| Heath Chapman | 16.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 17 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-10 12:26 UTC (latest tip update)