Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.5 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 200 points came in 60 points higher than the predicted 140. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
61%
Carlton
39%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Carlton are far from out of this at 39%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Carlton carry a 65-point ELO rating advantage (1576 vs 1511). Recent form favours Carlton with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Adelaide Crows. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 10.5 points with a combined total of 140.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.13
Winner ✓
Edge
-27.1%
Line / Spread
Carlton +33.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.0%
Margin Band
Adelaide Crows 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 168.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | W W L L L | 106.7 |
Carlton | W W W L L | 109.9 |
Avg Conceded
80.0
Adelaide Crows
71.0
Carlton
Avg Margin
20.8
Adelaide Crows
-2.4
Carlton
Disposals
339.3
Adelaide Crows
338.1
Carlton
Inside 50s
55.9
Adelaide Crows
49.8
Carlton
ELO–Market Disagreement
Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1576 vs 1511), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.13).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 140 · Line: +10.5
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