# Adelaide Crows v Carlton — AFL Round 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 114 – 86 Carlton

_Adelaide Crows peck holes in Carlton._

Half time: 78 – 54 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 61% / Carlton 39% · Adelaide Oval · Thu, 09 Apr, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Izak Rankine (3' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Alex Neal-Bullen (16' ×2), Josh Rachele (18' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Taylor Walker (24' Tipped ⚡), Jordan Dawson (41'), Ben Keays (42' ×3), Riley Thilthorpe (46' Tipped ⚡), Isaac Cumming (74'), Final quarter (31m 38s)Finnbar Maley (70' Tipped ⚡), Jake Soligo (94') · Carlton: Ben Ainsworth (4' ×2), Adam Cerra (12'), Oliver Florent (25'), Elijah Hollands (27'), Mitch McGovern (29' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Matt Carroll (52'), Zac Williams (80'), Francis Evans (72' Tipped ⚡), Harry McKay (76' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Hollands (84')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 61% | Won |
| Carlton | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.5 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Carlton Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 5, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Apr 2026, 05:24 pm · Last updated: 11 Apr 2026, 01:06 am_

Adelaide Crows 114–86 Carlton in AFL Round 5 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Adelaide Crows shading this by 10.5 points, with a combined total of 140 and a 61% win probability for the Crows. Final scoreline at Adelaide Oval: Adelaide Crows 114, Carlton 86. That's a 28-point margin and 200 points on the board, 60 more than tipped. The winner was right. The shape of the win, and the size of it, was not close to what anyone modelled.

Go back to the start and Carlton actually had the better of it. Quarter time read Carlton 46, Adelaide 39, and on paper that tracked with the pre-match numbers: Carlton went in with the stronger midfield rating, 1105 to 1068, and a clear edge in the ruck, 1121 to 1066. They backed that up on the day too, winning clearances 45 to 40 for the match. For one term, the team sheet did what it said it would.

Then Adelaide turned it over. From quarter time to half time the Crows piled on 39 points to Carlton's 8, flipping a 7-point deficit into a 24-point lead at the main break, 78-54. That's the stretch that decided the game. Carlton had no answer for it, and Adelaide carried it through to three-quarter time, 92-62, before the margin stretched further to the final siren, 114-86.

The disposal count explains a fair bit of how it happened. Adelaide finished with 393 disposals to Carlton's 358, and used it better too, 69.7% efficiency to 67.9%. The Crows also won the contested footy, 173 to 162, which isn't the number you'd expect from the side rated weaker in the midfield coming in. Adelaide's work inside 50 was cleaner as well: 10 marks inside 50 to Carlton's 6, with 90 intercepts to 88 and a 55-50 edge in total marks. Carlton's rated defensive edge, 1064 to Adelaide's 1051 heading in, didn't hold up once the ball started hitting the Crows' forward line at that rate.

Carlton's clearest wins on the stat sheet, outside clearances, were about effort rather than polish. They laid 87 tackles to Adelaide's 71 and won inside 50s 60 to 56, so the pressure and the entries were both there. What let them down was conversion once it got inside forward 50, and that gap, 10 marks to 6 in Adelaide's favour, is where most of the scoreboard damage traces back to.

Form lines coming in had Carlton the busier side across the last five games, averaging more disposals and more wins, while Adelaide's recent average margin of plus-20.8 points suggested a side used to winning comfortably rather than grinding. That form held up more than the head-to-head ratings did.

As for Alphr's model, it went 3 from 4 on this one. It picked the winner and it nailed the 1-39 point margin band, but the exact margin pick of 10.5 points was well short of the actual 28, and Carlton comfortably covered the 33.5-point line. A game that was tight on paper turned into the sort of contest where the underdog led at quarter time and still finished the day 28 points worse off.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 39 | 39 | 14 | 22 | 114 |
| Carlton | 46 | 8 | 8 | 24 | 86 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| **393** | Disposals | 358 |
| **173** | Contested poss. | 162 |
| 40 | Clearances | **45** |
| 56 | Inside 50s | **60** |
| **55** | Marks | 50 |
| **10** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| 71 | Tackles | **87** |
| **45** | Hit-outs | 43 |
| **90** | Intercepts | 88 |
| **69.7%** | Disposal eff. | 67.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.5 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 200 points came in 60 points higher than the predicted 140. The model went 3/4 on this match. Carlton covered the 33.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.13 (edge -27.1%) — model probability 61.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +33.5 @ $1.90 (edge +23.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 11 · Predicted total: 140

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 32 · 31 | 29 · 37 |
| Goal Assists | 6.8/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 101/g |
| Inside 50s | 24/g | 16.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.3/g | 5.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 63.8% | 70.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 11 | 13 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 2.5/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 168/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.8/g | 22.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.3% | 67.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 3 | 2 · 2 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposals | 116/g | 95/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.3/g | 8.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.8% | 76.5% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Defenders 1.35/g (lg 1.18) +14% · Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.49) +12% · Forwards 4.63/g (lg 4.42) +5%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.19/g (lg 1.18) +1% · Forwards 4.23/g (lg 4.42) -4% · Midfielders 2.31/g (lg 2.48) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 7 in 4g | 23/10g (4·3·1·3·2·3·3·2·1·1) | 1/3g | 67/48g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 5 in 4g | 15/10g (3·3·0·2·0·2·1·2·1·1) | 6/4g | 60/42g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 20' 34' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 4 in 3g | 17/10g (2·3·3·2·1·2·0·0·3·1) | 24/12g | 293/132g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 4 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·3·1) | 0/1g | 3/18g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 16/14g | 17/29g | 48% | — | 🏉 16' 99' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 4/8g | 6/23g | 32% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 3 in 3g | 8/10g (1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 7/9g | 33/58g | 48% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 7/18g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 2 in 3g | 16/10g (5·1·2·1·3·1·1·1·1·0) | 8/6g | 69/38g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 97' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 22/51g | 42% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 1 in 4g | 6/10g (0·1·0·3·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 13/10g | 65/78g | 66% | — | 🏉 42' 44' 57' |
| – | Finnbar Maley | KF | 1 in 2g | 5/9g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 1 in 4g | 7/10g (0·1·1·3·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 8/17g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/41g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 8/45g | 20% | — | — |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/34g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 0 in 4g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/18g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/41g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/49g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 18/139g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 18/71g | 6% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 7 in 4g | 17/10g (1·3·4·0·1·1·0·2·3·2) | 1/4g | 43/34g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' 30' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 6 in 4g | 19/10g (0·1·1·3·7·1·1·2·1·2) | 20/10g | 10/8g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 6 in 4g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·3·1·0·2) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 5 in 4g | 12/10g (0·1·1·5·0·0·1·1·0·3) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hollands | FWD | 4 in 4g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 1/3g | 0/4g | 46% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 3 in 4g | 9/10g (1·2·0·2·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 8/10g | 5/11g | 64% | — | 🏉 4' 13' |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 13% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Nic Newman | DEF | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 10/13g | 9/10g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 4/7g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Talor Byrne | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 5/12g | 52% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/8g | 1/10g | 28% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 0 in 2g | 12/10g (0·0·0·1·2·4·2·3·0·0) | 6/3g | 14/16g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.74 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| – | Hudson O'Keeffe | RUC | 0 in 2g | 3/7g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Boyd | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/17g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/10g | 18% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/6g | 12% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Wade Derksen | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | 23.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 26 ✗ |
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | $1.90 | 45% | 24 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell | 23.5 | $1.89 | 62% | 21 ✓ |
| Josh Rachele ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 93% | 26 ✗ |
| Wayne Milera ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 25 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.88 | 82% | 20 ✓ |
| Sam Berry ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 29 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.88 | 75% | 22 ✗ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | 16.5 | $1.96 | 59% | 16 ✓ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.95 | 66% | 29 ✓ |
| Jagga Smith ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.89 | 74% | 19 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps | 25.5 | $1.85 | 50% | 29 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra | 23.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 23 ✓ |
| Nic Newman | 20.5 | $1.91 | 30% | 19 ✓ |
| Oliver Florent | 18.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 25 ✗ |
| Oliver Hollands | 18.5 | $1.94 | 44% | 15 ✓ |
| Elijah Hollands | 17.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 16 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-10 15:06 UTC (latest tip update)