# West Coast Eagles v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 35 – 163 Sydney Swans

_Sydney Swans run riot over West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 20 – 83 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 51% / Sydney Swans 49% · Optus Stadium · Sat, 04 Apr, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Jake Waterman (56' Tipped ⚡), Liam Baker (60'), Willem Duursma (95'), Final quarter (29m 15s)Willem Duursma (66') · Sydney Swans: Charlie Curnow (5' ×4 1st Tipped ⚡), Jake Lloyd (13' ×3), Joel Amartey (17' Tipped ⚡), Jai Serong (18'), Isaac Heeney (29' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Justin McInerney (39'), Harry Cunningham (55'), Brodie Grundy (58'), Nick Blakey (67'), Sam Wicks (80'), Chad Warner (90' ×2), Tom Papley (68' Tipped ⚡), James Jordon (72')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 51% | Lost |
| Sydney Swans | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 12.1 predicted → 128 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Sydney Swans Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Apr 2026, 12:40 pm · Last updated: 5 Apr 2026, 01:12 am_

West Coast Eagles 35–163 Sydney Swans in AFL Round 4 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

By half time at Optus Stadium, Sydney Swans led West Coast Eagles 83 to 20. That's not a scoreline, that's a hiding already in progress, and the Swans weren't done.

Three-quarter time had it at 130 to 29. Full time: 163 to 35. A 128-point margin, the Swans adding more points after the main break than West Coast managed in the entire match. Nobody rewrote anything in the second half. They just kept going.

The disposal count tells you why. Sydney finished with 427 to West Coast's 289, and used it better too, 76.3% efficiency against 73.0%. Contested ball went the same way, 135 to 92, clearances 41 to 28. When one side wins the footy that comprehensively and does more with it, the scoreboard stops being a contest and starts being an accumulation.

Inside 50 tells the same story from another angle. Sydney went forward 61 times to West Coast's 45, and once there they finished, 24 marks inside 50 against just 7 for the Eagles. That's a side taking the ball in and converting it into looks at goal, over and over, while West Coast's forward entries mostly went nowhere.

The ruck battle was lopsided too, Sydney winning hit-outs 35 to 18, which fed the clearance edge and kept West Coast chasing the ball all day. Add 46 tackles to 34 and 65 intercepts to 54, and there's no facet of the game West Coast came out ahead in.

None of this squares with what the positional ratings suggested going in. Sydney held the edge everywhere, midfield 1007 to 949, forwards 1062 to 1001, defence 992 to 941, with West Coast only ahead in ruck rating, 1011 to 966. On the day the actual hit-out count went the other way entirely, so even West Coast's one supposed advantage didn't show up. Form lines had West Coast averaging 107.6 points a game and conceding 95.7, numbers nowhere near what turned up here.

Alphr's model had West Coast as 12.1-point favourites, rated 1479 to Sydney's 1523, with 51% leaning the Eagles' way. It landed on a combined total of 180. The final tally was 198, and the margin ran out 128 points the other direction. All four picks missed.

Wins and misses, all of it. Sometimes the ratings are close and the game runs true. Sometimes a side turns up and just plays keepings off for four quarters, and the model's 12-point lean turns into a punchline. This was the second kind.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 5 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 35 |
| Sydney Swans | 38 | 45 | 47 | 33 | 163 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 289 | Disposals | **427** |
| 92 | Contested poss. | **135** |
| 28 | Clearances | **41** |
| 45 | Inside 50s | **61** |
| 76 | Marks | **123** |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **24** |
| 34 | Tackles | **46** |
| 18 | Hit-outs | **35** |
| 54 | Intercepts | **65** |
| 73.0% | Disposal eff. | **76.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Sydney Swans defied the model's 51% prediction for West Coast Eagles, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.1 but the actual margin was 128 points. The game's 198 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 180. Sydney Swans led 20–83 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 128. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** West Coast Eagles to win @ $5.10 (edge +31.8%) — model probability 51.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +32.5 @ $1.90 (edge +31.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: West Coast Eagles by 12 · Predicted total: 180

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sydney Swans lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R24 | West Coast Eagles | 51 – 118 | Sydney Swans |
| 2024 | R4 | West Coast Eagles | 78 – 104 | Sydney Swans |
| 2023 | R15 | Sydney Swans | 205 – 34 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2022 | R5 | West Coast Eagles | 58 – 121 | Sydney Swans |
| 2021 | R16 | Sydney Swans | 118 – 26 | West Coast Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 22 · 36 | 27 · 24 |
| Goal Assists | 4.7/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 86/g | 91/g |
| Inside 50s | 12/g | 16.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.7/g | 8.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 64.6% | 68.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 6 | 20 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 5.3/g |
| Disposals | 134/g | 159/g |
| Inside 50s | 23/g | 32.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.1% | 72.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 0 · 6 | 1 · 0 |
| Goal Assists | 2/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 96/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.3/g | 14.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0/g | 0/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.5% | 78.7% |

**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.63/g (lg 0.49) +29% · Midfielders 2.37/g (lg 2.5) -5% · Key Forwards 3.48/g (lg 3.75) -7%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.76/g (lg 0.49) +55% · Midfielders 3.49/g (lg 2.5) +40% · Forwards 5.47/g (lg 4.4) +24%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 8 in 3g | 23/10g (0·4·2·3·1·2·3·3·1·4) | 7/6g | 94/60g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 4 in 3g | 12/10g (0·1·2·2·1·1·1·0·3·1) | 12/14g | 104/85g | 76% | — | — |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 4/8g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 3 in 3g | 12/10g (1·1·0·1·3·0·3·1·2·0) | 3/1g | 11/6g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (0·2·1) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 67% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 2 in 3g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Duff-Tytler | KF | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·2·0) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.67 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·2·0·0·2) | 1/1g | 15/22g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/6g | 5/20g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 5/17g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/41g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Harry Schoenberg | FWD | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 7/22g | 32% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 4/82g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Malakai Champion | FWD | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | no games | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 8/11g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/34g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 23/63g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | 9 in 3g | 19/10g (0·2·4·0·2·0·2·3·5·1) | 8/3g | 6/4g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 6 in 3g | 11/10g (1·0·0·1·1·2·0·3·2·1) | 4/5g | 1/4g | 46% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Logan McDonald | KF | 6 in 3g | 13/10g (0·1·0·3·1·2·0·1·2·3) | 8/3g | 5/3g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 80% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 5 in 3g | 11/10g (1·0·0·0·0·3·2·3·0·2) | 29/8g | 22/7g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 44' 53' 68' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 4 in 2g | 19/10g (0·1·5·1·1·5·1·1·2·2) | 19/11g | 9/9g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 63' 84' |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 3 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 5/19g | 3/12g | 34% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·1) | 6/4g | 9/7g | 60% | — | 🏉 90' 86' |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 2 in 3g | 11/10g (2·0·1·1·0·2·3·1·0·1) | 17/10g | 11/10g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Corey Warner | FWD | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 41% | — | 🏉 90' 86' |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 1/9g | 24% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 4/10g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 6/10g | 24% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/9g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/9g | 4% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Jai Serong | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 2/11g | 20% | — | 🏉 13' 70' 82' |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/7g | 14% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kelly | 22.5 | $1.92 | 57% | 24 ✗ |
| Harley Reid | 21.5 | $1.95 | 45% | 17 ✓ |
| Tom McCarthy | 21.5 | $1.94 | 58% | 19 ✓ |
| Liam Baker | 20.5 | $1.94 | 55% | 14 ✓ |
| Jack Graham | 19.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 19 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 19.5 | $1.90 | 44% | 19 ✓ |
| Josh Lindsay | 17.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 17 ✓ |
| Willem Duursma | 17.5 | $1.82 | 36% | 16 ✓ |

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin McInerney ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 24 ✓ |
| Callum Mills ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.90 | 69% | 18 ✓ |
| Chad Warner ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.93 | 66% | 24 ✗ |
| Corey Warner ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.93 | 99% | 12 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 20 ✓ |
| Isaac Heeney | 22.5 | $1.92 | 61% | 26 ✗ |
| Angus Sheldrick ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 25 ✗ |
| Riley Bice ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.80 | 95% | 27 ✗ |
| Brodie Grundy | 19.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 28 ✗ |
| Jake Lloyd | 18.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 19 ✗ |
| James Rowbottom ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 20 ✗ |
| Matt Roberts ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 17 ✓ |
| Jai Serong ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 27 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-04 14:12 UTC (latest tip update)