Win Probability
AI Game Review
Sydney Swans defied the model's 51% prediction for West Coast Eagles — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 12.1 but the actual margin was 128 points. The game's 198 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 180. Sydney Swans led 20–83 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 128. A tough result for the model — all 4 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
51%
Sydney Swans
49%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives West Coast Eagles a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Sydney Swans are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but West Coast Eagles counter with Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Sydney Swans carry a 44-point ELO rating advantage (1523 vs 1479). Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts West Coast Eagles by 12.1 points with a combined total of 180.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
West Coast Eagles to Win @5.10
Lost ✗
Edge
+31.8%
Line / Spread
West Coast Eagles +32.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+31.8%
Margin Band
West Coast Eagles 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 182.5 @1.89
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | WWWLL | 107.7 |
Sydney Swans | WWLLL | 74.7 |
Avg Conceded
95.7
West Coast Eagles
82.2
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
-2.2
West Coast Eagles
1.0
Sydney Swans
Disposals
379.3
West Coast Eagles
372.7
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
56.2
West Coast Eagles
44.7
Sydney Swans
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
West Coast Eagles predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 180 · Line: +12.1
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.