Win Probability
AI Game Review
Port Adelaide defied the model's 56% prediction for Richmond, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.6 but the actual margin was 42 points. The game's 138 points came in 33 points lower than the predicted 171. Port Adelaide led 22–37 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 42. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 179.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Richmond
56%
Port Adelaide
44%
AI Match Overview
Richmond hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Port Adelaide are far from out of this at 44%. Port Adelaide are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Richmond counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Port Adelaide carry a 122-point ELO rating advantage (1576 vs 1454). Recent form favours Richmond with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Richmond by 11.6 points with a combined total of 171.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Richmond to Win @2.71
Lost ✗
Edge
+19.1%
Line / Spread
Richmond +13.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+19.1%
Margin Band
Richmond 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 179.5 @1.87
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | W W W L L | 103.7 |
Port Adelaide | W L L L L | 106.8 |
Avg Conceded
70.6
Richmond
99.7
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
-6.0
Richmond
9.2
Port Adelaide
Disposals
339.2
Richmond
354.9
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
42.6
Richmond
47.4
Port Adelaide
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Richmond predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 171 · Line: +11.6
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