# Richmond v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 48 – 90 Port Adelaide

_Port Adelaide see off Richmond._

Half time: 22 – 37 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 56% / Port Adelaide 44% · MCG · Sat, 04 Apr, 04:15 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Maurice Rioli (48'), Liam Fawcett (52' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Lalor (72' ×2), Sam Banks (77') · Port Adelaide: Jacob Wehr (11' 1st), Jack Whitlock (30' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Georgiades (33' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Joe Richards (45'), Corey Durdin (62' Tipped ⚡), Jordon Sweet (69'), Jason Horne-Francis (63' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Lukosius (64' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Willem Drew (68')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 56% | Lost |
| Port Adelaide | 44% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 11.6 predicted → 42 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Apr 2026, 12:41 pm · Last updated: 4 Apr 2026, 08:31 pm_

Richmond 48–90 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 4 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Port Adelaide beat Richmond 90-48 at the MCG, a 42-point margin that on its own tells you everything and, once you look at the stat sheet, almost nothing. Richmond had 50 inside 50s to Port's 46. They won clearances 30-27 and contested possession 115-110. They laid 54 tackles to Port's 35. By most of the numbers that measure effort and territory, Richmond had the better of it. They still lost by 42.

The scoreboard tells the real story of when it mattered. Port led 12-1 at quarter time and never let up, going to the half up 37-22. By three-quarter time it was 59-32, and Richmond could find only 16 more points in the final term while Port piled on another 31 to close it out 90-48. The game was decided early and stayed decided.

So how does a team that wins clearances, contested ball and tackle count lose by 42? Efficiency and finishing. Port had 337 disposals to Richmond's 328, not a huge gap, but they made cleaner use of theirs, going at 71.8% compared with Richmond's 73.2% (Richmond were actually more efficient overall, which makes the score even harder to reconcile). The bigger tell is inside the arc: Port took 95 marks to Richmond's 90 and pulled down 11 marks inside 50 to Richmond's 13, and, crucially, only needed 46 forward-half entries to Richmond's 50 to run away with the scoring. Port's intercept work, 78 to Richmond's 72, meant they were repeatedly cutting off Richmond ball before it did damage, then using their own front-half advantage far more ruthlessly.

Hit-outs were close, 29 to Port and 27 to Richmond, so it wasn't a ruck mismatch that decided this. It was what happened after the ball hit the deck. Richmond could win it back, win it clean, even move it forward, but couldn't turn that work into scoreboard pressure the way Port did every time they got a look at goal.

For Alphr's model, this one was a miss on the margin. Port were rated as an 11.6-point favourite heading in, with a combined score around 171. The final margin blew out to 42, and the total landed at 138, well under that projection.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 1 | 21 | 10 | 16 | 48 |
| Port Adelaide | 12 | 25 | 22 | 31 | 90 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| 328 | Disposals | **337** |
| **115** | Contested poss. | 110 |
| **30** | Clearances | 27 |
| **50** | Inside 50s | 46 |
| 90 | Marks | **95** |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **54** | Tackles | 35 |
| 27 | Hit-outs | **29** |
| 72 | Intercepts | **78** |
| **73.2%** | Disposal eff. | 71.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Port Adelaide defied the model's 56% prediction for Richmond, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.6 but the actual margin was 42 points. The game's 138 points came in 33 points lower than the predicted 171. Port Adelaide led 22–37 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 42. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 179.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Richmond to win @ $2.71 (edge +19.1%) — model probability 56.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +19.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Richmond 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 12 · Predicted total: 171

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 29 | 29 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 5.7/g |
| Disposals | 98/g | 102/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.7/g | 21/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.7/g | 12/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.1% | 70.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 3 · 9 | 7 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 5/g |
| Disposals | 99/g | 149/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.3/g | 26/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.6% | 67.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 4 | 6 · 5 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 136/g | 94/g |
| Inside 50s | 10/g | 6.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.1% | 81.1% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.35/g (lg 1.18) +14% · Rucks 0.56/g (lg 0.49) +14% · Key Forwards 3.85/g (lg 3.75) +3%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.84/g (lg 3.75) +29% · Rucks 0.61/g (lg 0.49) +24% · Defenders 1.35/g (lg 1.18) +14%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 5 in 3g | 9/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·1·2·0·3) | 1/2g | 11/16g | 47% | — | — |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 3 in 3g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·2·2·0·2·1·0) | 1/1g | 12/9g | 63% | — | 🏉 72' 81' |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 3 in 3g | 10/10g (0·0·2·0·0·3·2·0·3·0) | 3/3g | 21/26g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 62% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (0·1·3·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 7/9g | 31/52g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 3/12g | 32/90g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/14g | 19/105g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/10g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 1 in 2g | 12/10g (3·1·2·0·1·2·2·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 8/8g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/15g | 17/141g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/42g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Gray | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 7/52g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 8/42g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Kane McAuliffe | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Fawcett | KF | no games | 1/1g (1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.60 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $20.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' 55' |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 16/32g | 32% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/95g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/28g | 10% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Samson Ryan | RUC | no games | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/13g | 37% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/24g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/20g | 20% | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 8 in 3g | 24/10g (3·2·1·3·2·1·4·3·2·3) | 8/4g | 10/7g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' 36' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 6 in 3g | 9/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·2·2) | 3/3g | 11/23g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 5 in 3g | 9/7g (0·0·3·1·2·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 64' |
| – | Jack Lukosius | FWD | 4 in 2g | 14/10g (2·1·0·3·0·2·0·2·3·1) | 5/8g | 4/6g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 64' 66' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 4 in 3g | 11/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·3·0·3·1) | 2/5g | 6/7g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' 84' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 3 in 3g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 7/16g | 7/19g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Jack Watkins | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 4/6g | 52% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 2/11g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 1/7g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 24% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/10g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 2/13g | 10% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/16g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ewan Mackinlay | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/11g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/19g | 8/23g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 12/11g | 16% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.77 | 79% | 20 ✓ |
| Jacob Hopper | 23.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 22 ✓ |
| Jack Ross ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 15 ✓ |
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 71% | 22 ✓ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 72% | 20 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.91 | 72% | 11 ✓ |
| Sam Grlj ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.80 | 84% | 19 ✗ |
| Kane McAuliffe ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 16 ✓ |
| Sam Lalor ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.85 | 89% | 12 ✓ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $1.79 | 70% | 30 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.89 | 73% | 24 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines | 22.5 | $1.87 | 37% | 11 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 74% | 18 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.77 | 68% | 23 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 20.5 | $2.01 | 55% | 11 ✓ |
| Jack Watkins ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.95 | 80% | 8 ✓ |
| Miles Bergman | 17.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 13 ✓ |
| Logan Evans ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.95 | 70% | 13 ✓ |
| Jacob Wehr ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.98 | 62% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-04 09:31 UTC (latest tip update)