# North Melbourne v Carlton — AFL Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 96 – 86 Carlton

_North Melbourne fight back to deny Carlton._

Half time: 37 – 40 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 52% / Carlton 48% · Marvel Stadium · Fri, 03 Apr, 03:15 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Paul Curtis (11' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nick Larkey (17' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Darling (19' Tipped ⚡), Cooper Trembath (33' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Zane Duursma (52' ×3), Final quarter (36m 50s)Cooper Trembath (59'), Cameron Zurhaar (77' Tipped ⚡), Harry Sheezel (85'), Jy Simpkin (91') · Carlton: Marc Pittonet (7' ×2 1st), Brodie Kemp (14' ×3), Mitch McGovern (27' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nic Newman (43'), Elijah Hollands (64'), Sam Walsh (68'), Jagga Smith (84'), Harry McKay (85' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 52% | Won |
| Carlton | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.6 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Carlton Blues Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Apr 2026, 12:40 pm · Last updated: 3 Apr 2026, 07:49 pm_

North Melbourne 96–86 Carlton in AFL Round 4 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne trailed by 22 points at three-quarter time. By the final siren they'd won by 10. That's a 32-point swing in one quarter of footy, and it's the whole story of this game.

Carlton did most things right for three quarters. They led at every change, out to 73-51 heading into the last term, and had the bigger numbers everywhere that's supposed to matter. Their ruck division dominated, 41 hit-outs to 22. Midfield on top too, 35 clearances to 31. Marks, 114 to 86, a gulf that size usually means territory and control.

The pre-game numbers backed that up. Carlton went in rated above North Melbourne in every department: midfield, forwards, defence and ruck. Their recent form had them conceding just 66.9 points a game on average, the kind of defensive record that makes a 22-point buffer at three-quarter time look safe. It wasn't.

North Melbourne kept pushing the ball forward all day regardless of the scoreboard, finishing with 54 inside 50s to 48, and when they got there they made it count. 14 marks inside 50 to Carlton's 7. That's the number that matters most in this one. Carlton could win the ball in the middle and win it in the air, but North Melbourne kept turning entries into clean, contested marks close to goal, and Carlton's defence, rated the stronger unit coming in, couldn't keep repelling it.

The last quarter is where it all came apart for Carlton. North Melbourne scored 45 points in the term to Carlton's 13, the reversal that turned a 22-point deficit into a 10-point win. The disposal efficiency numbers hint at how: North Melbourne finished at 76.0%, Carlton at 74.3%. Not a huge gap over four quarters, but exactly the kind of edge that shows up when a team needs to hold the ball under pressure late. North Melbourne also out-tackled Carlton, 66 to 59, and won the contested possession count, 120 to 115, despite losing the clearance battle outright.

Carlton's problem wasn't generating the ball. It was what happened once North Melbourne got their hands on it forward of centre. A team that had been conceding under 67 points a game shipped 45 in a single quarter to lose a match they'd controlled for three.

For North Melbourne, it's a result that runs against most of what the ratings said going in.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 21 | 16 | 14 | 45 | 96 |
| Carlton | 22 | 18 | 33 | 13 | 86 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 337 | Disposals | **339** |
| **120** | Contested poss. | 115 |
| 31 | Clearances | **35** |
| **54** | Inside 50s | 48 |
| 86 | Marks | **114** |
| **14** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| **66** | Tackles | 59 |
| 22 | Hit-outs | **41** |
| 53 | Intercepts | 53 |
| **76.0%** | Disposal eff. | 74.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted North Melbourne to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.6 but the actual margin was 10 points. Total score prediction of 187 was close to the actual 182, within 5 points. North Melbourne trailed 37–40 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 96–86. The model went 2/4 on this match. The over 180.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $2.31 (edge +8.9%) — model probability 52.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 180.5 @ $1.93 (edge +3.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 7 · Predicted total: 187

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 31 · 20 | 21 · 26 |
| Goal Assists | 5.3/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 97/g | 102/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.3/g | 16.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.7/g | 5.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76.6% | 71.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 9 | 9 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 2/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 161/g | 181/g |
| Inside 50s | 25/g | 25.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.2% | 65.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 4 | 1 · 1 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 0/g |
| Disposals | 112/g | 88/g |
| Inside 50s | 8/g | 6.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 82.6% | 75.3% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Defenders 1.36/g (lg 1.19) +14% · Rucks 0.56/g (lg 0.49) +14% · Forwards 4.62/g (lg 4.41) +5%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Key Forwards 5.22/g (lg 3.74) +40% · Defenders 1.55/g (lg 1.19) +30% · Rucks 0.59/g (lg 0.49) +20%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 12 in 3g | 30/10g (1·0·3·1·5·5·3·4·6·2) | 19/9g | 134/61g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 70' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 5 in 3g | 16/10g (2·3·0·3·2·0·1·2·2·1) | 16/9g | 98/65g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 5 in 3g | 14/6g (3·3·3·3·0·2) | 0/0g | 8/3g | 83% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' 70' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 4 in 3g | 17/10g (1·2·0·2·0·5·3·1·2·1) | 13/6g | 51/37g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 83' |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 4 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3) | 1/2g | 7/13g | 39% | — | 🏉 52' 79' 64' |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 6/24g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 6/20g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/24g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 1 in 2g | 12/10g (0·3·1·1·1·3·1·1·1·0) | 15/15g | 62/42g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/10g | 32/81g | 40% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/13g | 11/102g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 20/19g | 36/43g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 15/44g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/45g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 30/100g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Callum Coleman-Jones | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 8/14g | 28% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 7/18g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 10/32g | 38% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 23/58g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/16g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Zac Banch | FWD | no games | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 25% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 5 in 3g | 15/10g (0·1·3·4·0·1·1·0·2·3) | 7/9g | 16/33g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' 61' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 4 in 3g | 19/10g (2·0·1·1·3·7·1·1·2·1) | 15/5g | 93/44g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 85' |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 4 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·3·1·0) | 0/3g | 4/19g | 20% | — | 🏉 7' 39' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 3 in 3g | 10/10g (1·1·2·0·2·0·1·2·0·1) | 17/12g | 16/22g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hollands | FWD | 3 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/4g | 7/12g | 42% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 2 in 3g | 10/10g (1·0·1·1·5·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 6/16g | 28% | — | 🏉 14' 50' 68' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 2 in 3g | 11/10g (0·1·3·0·3·0·2·1·1·0) | 17/12g | 41/27g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 62% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 5/13g | 12/43g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 9/13g | 47/71g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Talor Byrne | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/9g | 8/28g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 0 in 1g | 12/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·4·2·3·0) | 2/1g | 6/4g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 4/62g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Boyd | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/30g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Nic Newman | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 10/42g | 6% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 10/25g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/21g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 10/42g | 18% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Wade Derksen | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 32.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 24 ✓ |
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 24 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $2.00 | 67% | 22 ✓ |
| Luke Parker | 24.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 20 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 22.5 | $1.88 | 55% | 17 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel | 21.5 | $1.93 | 39% | 27 ✗ |
| Dylan Stephens ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| Tom Powell | 20.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| Finn O'Sullivan | 18.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 21 ✗ |
| George Wardlaw ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 69% | 16 ✓ |
| Luke McDonald | 16.5 | $1.92 | 57% | 18 ✗ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagga Smith ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.89 | 90% | 17 ✓ |
| Sam Walsh ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 19 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 21 ✓ |
| George Hewett | 23.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 22 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra | 21.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 19 ✓ |
| Nic Newman | 20.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 19 ✓ |
| Oliver Hollands ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.89 | 68% | 21 ✗ |
| Oliver Florent ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.95 | 78% | 20 ✗ |
| Elijah Hollands ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 18 ✗ |
| Harry McKay ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.83 | 76% | 12 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-03 08:49 UTC (latest tip update)