Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted North Melbourne to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.6 but the actual margin was 10 points. Total score prediction of 187 was close to the actual 182, within 5 points. North Melbourne trailed 37–40 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 96–86. The model went 2/4 on this match. The over 180.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
52%
Carlton
48%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives North Melbourne a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Carlton are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but North Melbourne counter with Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Carlton carry a 105-point ELO rating advantage (1553 vs 1448). Recent form favours North Melbourne with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Carlton by 6.6 points with a combined total of 187.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
North Melbourne to Win @2.31
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.9%
Line / Spread
Carlton +8.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+8.9%
Margin Band
Carlton 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 180.5 @1.93
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | W W W W L | 89.1 |
Carlton | W W L L L | 94.7 |
Avg Conceded
98.3
North Melbourne
66.9
Carlton
Avg Margin
16.7
North Melbourne
15.7
Carlton
Disposals
365.6
North Melbourne
357.7
Carlton
Inside 50s
45.8
North Melbourne
46.2
Carlton
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
North Melbourne predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 187 · Line: -6.6
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.