# Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Melbourne 109 – 89 Gold Coast SUNS

_Melbourne see off Gold Coast SUNS._

Half time: 56 – 50 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Melbourne 47% / Gold Coast SUNS 53% · MCG · Sun, 05 Apr, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Melbourne: Brody Mihocek (10' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Christian Salem (29'), Jake Melksham (37' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Harvey Langford (42' ×2), Harry Sharp (46'), Jacob van Rooyen (50' Tipped ⚡), Koltyn Tholstrup (67'), Max Gawn (80'), Xavier Lindsay (83'), Kysaiah Pickett (90' Tipped ⚡), Latrelle Pickett (77') · Gold Coast SUNS: Ethan Read (8' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Zeke Uwland (13'), Ben King (19' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Lachlan Gulbin (30'), Wil Powell (55'), Will Graham (64'), Jed Walter (78' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Joel Jeffrey (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 53% | Lost |
| Melbourne | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.0 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 4, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Apr 2026, 12:41 pm · Last updated: 5 Apr 2026, 06:23 pm_

Melbourne 109–89 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 4 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Gold Coast SUNS shading this by 2 points, a 53 per cent favourite off ratings of 1548 to 1502, with the total pegged at 179. Melbourne won by 20, the board read 109-89, and the 198 points scored blew that total out by 19. Call it one from four for the model on this one, an 18-point margin miss by its own numbers.

The read wasn't wrong about everything, though. Gold Coast actually justified the tip for a quarter, leading 25-18 at the first break and playing the game the model expected. Then Melbourne flipped it, going to the main break up 56-50, a 13-point swing inside one term. From there it was a levelling out rather than a shootout, Melbourne stretching to 90-76 at three-quarter time and closing it out 109-89. Gold Coast SUNS still covered the 22.5-point line, just, finishing 2.5 points inside it even in defeat.

Where the model's positional numbers held up was in the engine room. Melbourne went in with a ruck rating of 1087 against Gold Coast's 969, about as lopsided as these ratings get, and the hit-out count backed it in at 42 to 27. That platform fed a midfield rated almost even on paper, 1053 to 1048, but nothing like even on the day. Melbourne won clearances 39 to 28 and contested possession 138 to 116. First use of the ball won the second phase too.

Forward line ratings told the same story. Melbourne's 1071 against Gold Coast's 966 showed up directly in the inside 50 count, 59 to 45, and in the finishing work, 19 marks inside 50 to 14. More entries, cleaner hands once they got there.

Gold Coast's answer was with ball in hand. They actually won total disposals, 351 to 341, and their efficiency was well clear, 78.6 per cent to Melbourne's 68.6. They even edged marks overall, 90 to

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 18 | 38 | 34 | 19 | 109 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 25 | 25 | 26 | 13 | 89 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Melbourne | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Disposals | **351** |
| **138** | Contested poss. | 116 |
| **39** | Clearances | 28 |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| 89 | Marks | **90** |
| **19** | Marks inside 50 | 14 |
| **59** | Tackles | 54 |
| **42** | Hit-outs | 27 |
| **64** | Intercepts | 59 |
| 68.6% | Disposal eff. | **78.6%** |

**Model Report Card**

Melbourne defied the model's 53% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.0 but the actual margin was 20 points. The game's 198 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 179. Melbourne led 56–50 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 1/4 on this match. Gold Coast SUNS covered the 22.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.32 (edge -22.5%) — model probability 53.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +22.5 @ $1.92 (edge -22.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 190.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 2 · Predicted total: 179

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Melbourne | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 28 · 30 | 46 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 9.3/g |
| Disposals | 96/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.3/g | 26/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.7/g | 14/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.4% | 72.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Melbourne | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 13 | 6 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 128/g | 105/g |
| Inside 50s | 22/g | 21.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.7/g | 3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.7% | 70.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Melbourne | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 0 · 0 | 6 · 2 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 153/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.3/g | 16.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 0/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77.8% | 83.8% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Midfielders 2.49/g (lg 2.48) +0% · Forwards 4.31/g (lg 4.42) -2% · Defenders 1.14/g (lg 1.18) -3%
**Who scores on Melbourne** — Defenders 1.47/g (lg 1.18) +25% · Rucks 0.53/g (lg 0.49) +8% · Forwards 4.43/g (lg 4.42) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 6 in 3g | 14/10g (1·1·0·2·1·2·1·6·0·0) | 5/3g | 53/38g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 5 in 3g | 11/10g (2·1·2·0·1·0·0·3·1·1) | 15/8g | 158/95g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 34' |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 4 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·2) | 3/11g | 29/75g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 4 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 4/4g | 8/12g | 34% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 4 in 3g | 11/10g (2·0·2·1·1·1·0·1·1·2) | 2/4g | 41/49g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 3 in 3g | 14/10g (1·5·1·0·1·1·2·1·1·1) | 9/6g | 105/65g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 90' |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 2 in 3g | 9/10g (0·0·1·3·1·1·1·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 11/14g | 46% | — | 🏉 42' 66' |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/6g | 25/61g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/23g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/10g | 5/22g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jai Culley | MID | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/7g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Latrelle Pickett | FWD | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 33% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 11/13g | 63/127g | 38% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Bailey Laurie | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Blake Howes | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/19g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 16/105g | 2% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 12/21g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 0 in 3g | 10/10g (1·1·0·3·2·2·1·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 28/54g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lever | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/70g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jake Melksham | FWD | no games | 22/10g (0·5·4·5·1·2·1·2·0·2) | 11/10g | 98/90g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' 39' 72' 63' |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/14g | 25% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Tom McDonald | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/15g | 78/133g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 7% | — | 🏉 83' |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 16 in 3g | 40/10g (4·6·2·3·7·0·2·4·5·7) | 12/6g | 18/6g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 97% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 48' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 4 in 3g | 17/10g (2·3·2·3·1·2·0·2·1·1) | 8/10g | 9/11g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 78% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 4 in 3g | 10/10g (2·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·4) | 2/2g | 5/2g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' 36' 86' |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 4 in 3g | 5/7g (1·0·0·0·2·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 43% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/9g | 5/61g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 3 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 5/13g | 7/11g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jake Rogers | FWD | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·1·1·1·0) | 4/7g | 2/6g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 1/3g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/12g | 56/104g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/13g | 17/33g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 16% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 1/6g | 12% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 1 in 3g | 10/10g (2·2·1·2·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 5/3g | 53% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Ballard | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/6g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | no games | 8/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·2·1·0·1) | 3/3g | 1/1g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' 74' |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/10g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Gulbin | FWD | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | no games | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zeke Uwland | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 13' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Salem | 23.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 22 ✓ |
| Jack Steele ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.89 | 79% | 26 ✗ |
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 89% | 25 ✗ |
| Caleb Windsor ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 94% | 17 ✓ |
| Xavier Lindsay ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.74 | 93% | 16 ✓ |
| Tom Sparrow ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 85% | 21 ✗ |
| Max Gawn | 17.5 | $2.01 | 44% | 22 ✗ |
| Harvey Langford ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.85 | 65% | 10 ✓ |
| Ed Langdon | 16.5 | $1.89 | 50% | 15 ✓ |
| Kade Chandler ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $2.02 | 69% | 16 ✗ |
| Daniel Turner ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $2.01 | 76% | 11 ✓ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.98 | 67% | 21 ✓ |
| Noah Anderson | 27.5 | $1.80 | 41% | 22 ✓ |
| John Noble | 25.5 | $1.93 | 58% | 26 ✗ |
| Matt Rowell | 24.5 | $1.80 | 28% | 13 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.80 | 75% | 16 ✓ |
| Wil Powell ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $2.01 | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Bodhi Uwland | 19.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 24 ✗ |
| Daniel Rioli | 18.5 | $1.89 | 55% | 23 ✗ |
| Sam Clohesy | 17.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 17 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-05 08:23 UTC (latest tip update)