Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 11.5 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The game's 183 points came in 46 points higher than the predicted 137. Hawthorn trailed 47–56 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 92–91. The model went 3/4 on this match. The under 185.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
61%
Geelong Cats
39%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Geelong Cats are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Hawthorn carry a 67-point ELO rating advantage (1574 vs 1506). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 11.5 points with a combined total of 137.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.61
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.4%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -8.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.4%
Margin Band
Hawthorn 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 185.5 @1.86
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | W W L L L | 100.5 |
Geelong Cats | W W W L L | 100.3 |
Avg Conceded
85.2
Hawthorn
98.5
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
-0.7
Hawthorn
-5.2
Geelong Cats
Disposals
376.5
Hawthorn
377.6
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
55.7
Hawthorn
52.5
Geelong Cats
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 137 · Line: +11.5
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