# Hawthorn v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 92 – 91 Geelong Cats

_Hawthorn hit back to deny Geelong Cats._

Half time: 47 – 56 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 61% / Geelong Cats 39% · MCG · Mon, 06 Apr, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Jack Gunston (7' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Ginnivan (11' ×2), Mitch Lewis (25' ×2), Mabior Chol (38' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nick Watson (45' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Josh Weddle (82') · Geelong Cats: Jack Martin (12'), Oliver Henry (20' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Oliver Wiltshire (33'), Jack Bowes (47' ×2), Oliver Dempsey (53' Tipped ⚡), Shannon Neale (62' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jeremy Cameron (69' Tipped ⚡), Mark Blicavs (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 61% | Won |
| Geelong Cats | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.5 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Apr 2026, 07:43 pm · Last updated: 6 Apr 2026, 06:42 pm_

Hawthorn 92–91 Geelong Cats in AFL Round 4 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hawthorn were rated 1574 to Geelong Cats' 1506 coming in, a gap the model read as an 11.5-point win with a total near 137. Hawthorn did win. The margin was one point, not eleven and a half, and the total blew out to 183, some 46 points over the projection. A 61% call landed. The size of it didn't.

Trace it back through the quarters and you can see why the gap opened up. Hawthorn led 21-13 at quarter time, roughly the buffer the ratings expected given their edges in every positional rating: midfield, forward line, defence, ruck. Then Geelong Cats flipped it, outscoring Hawthorn in the second term to lead 56-47 at half time. That's not a side playing to script. Hawthorn's forward line rating of 1074 against Geelong's 982 suggested control that simply didn't show up in that middle period.

The third quarter is where Hawthorn's edges started to bite. They swung it back, going from nine points down to four points up, 69-65 at the last change, and held that advantage the rest of the way. Full time: 92-91.

The ruck battle explains a lot of it. Hawthorn's rating there was 1118 to Geelong's 1050, and on the day it was 44 hit-outs to 26, the single biggest gap on the stat sheet. First use of the footy flowed from that, and Hawthorn backed it up around the contest, winning clearances 33-28 and finishing with 387 disposals to 342 at a shade better efficiency, 71.1% to 70.8%.

Geelong Cats had their own patches of dominance and it wasn't nothing. They won hit outs on marks, 101 to 90, marks inside 50 was close at 16 to Hawthorn's 18, and inside 50 count actually favoured them 54-53. So territory was even, arguably tilted their way. What undid them was turning that territory into scoreboard pressure, and defending Hawthorn's use of it. Hawthorn's defence rating of 1045 against Geelong's 972 showed up in the intercept count, 71 to 61, and in 63 tackles to 55. Cheap ball for Geelong Cats just wasn't on offer, even with all that territory.

Form lines before the match had these two closer than a straight ratings gap might suggest. Hawthorn's last-five average margin sat at minus 0.7, Geelong's at minus 5.2, with both sides scoring around the 100-point mark on average across that stretch. Neither team's recent trend screamed dominance, and that's more or less how this one played out too, decided by a single point after Geelong Cats had led at the main break.

For the model, three from four isn't a bad return on a game this tight. The winner was picked, the 1-39 point margin band was picked, and the under on 185.5 came in. The one miss was the size of the margin itself, undercooked by a wide stretch given how the total ballooned well past expectations. Some games are built to run hot and stay tight at the same time. This was one of them, and Hawthorn's ruck and contested ball edges were enough to get them home by a single point.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 21 | 26 | 22 | 23 | 92 |
| Geelong Cats | 13 | 43 | 9 | 26 | 91 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| **387** | Disposals | 342 |
| **129** | Contested poss. | 112 |
| **33** | Clearances | 28 |
| 53 | Inside 50s | **54** |
| 90 | Marks | **101** |
| **18** | Marks inside 50 | 16 |
| **63** | Tackles | 55 |
| **44** | Hit-outs | 26 |
| **71** | Intercepts | 61 |
| **71.1%** | Disposal eff. | 70.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 11.5 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The game's 183 points came in 46 points higher than the predicted 137. Hawthorn trailed 47–56 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 92–91. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 185.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.61 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 60.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -8.5 @ $1.90 (edge -1.4%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 185.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 12 · Predicted total: 137

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 39 · 31 | 23 · 29 |
| Goal Assists | 5/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 23/g | 20.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 12.3/g | 9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.7% | 61.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 14 | 8 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 139/g |
| Inside 50s | 18/g | 24.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.5% | 67.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 0 | 4 · 3 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 144/g | 148/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.7/g | 14/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 84.1% | 75.1% |

**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.83/g (lg 3.76) +2% · Forwards 4.26/g (lg 4.39) -3% · Midfielders 2.28/g (lg 2.5) -9%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.48/g (lg 2.5) -1% · Forwards 4/g (lg 4.39) -9% · Key Forwards 3.37/g (lg 3.76) -10%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 13 in 3g | 41/10g (4·4·7·2·3·5·3·4·5·4) | 43/24g | 243/121g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 97% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 41' 71' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 7 in 3g | 16/10g (1·2·1·1·1·2·1·2·4·1) | 4/4g | 37/21g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' 55' 79' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 5 in 3g | 15/10g (1·3·0·3·2·0·1·2·1·2) | 9/6g | 41/34g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' 80' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 4 in 3g | 11/10g (1·1·2·1·0·1·1·0·1·3) | 8/7g | 55/54g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 3 in 3g | 11/10g (2·0·0·2·3·0·1·2·1·0) | 3/5g | 63/50g | 68% | — | 🏉 11' 91' |
| – | Sam Butler | FWD | 3 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/8g | 47% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·3·1·1·0·2·0) | 3/6g | 30/40g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/6g | 14/43g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 13/27g | 40% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 2 in 3g | 10/10g (2·1·1·0·1·0·3·1·0·1) | 15/7g | 59/33g | 78% | — | 🏉 25' 91' |
| – | Ned Reeves | RUC | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 6/21g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 9/51g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·3·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 9/27g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 8/28g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 12/79g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Flynn Perez | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jack Dalton | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/49g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 31/81g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 15/68g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 3/26g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/31g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/24g | 0% | — | — |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 6 in 3g | 17/10g (1·1·1·1·3·0·4·4·0·2) | 2/4g | 22/16g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 6 in 3g | 23/10g (4·3·3·4·1·1·1·1·5·0) | 3/3g | 11/11g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' 72' 90' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 5 in 3g | 16/10g (0·3·3·2·0·2·1·1·3·1) | 5/3g | 15/10g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 80% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 4 in 3g | 13/10g (0·4·2·1·1·1·0·0·1·3) | 11/10g | 35/34g | 68% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 3 in 2g | 33/10g (11·6·4·0·4·2·3·0·3·0) | 40/15g | 127/46g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 97% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 3 in 2g | 12/10g (2·1·1·1·2·0·1·1·2·1) | 9/6g | 48/30g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 36' 71' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 9/17g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 8/41g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 20/32g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/13g | 3/52g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 7/6g | 25/33g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (1·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/10g | 24/38g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | no games | 8/10g (1·1·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/8g | 7/21g | 56% | — | 🏉 47' 61' |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/11g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 8/24g | 24/80g | 34% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Mitchell Edwards | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/10g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Wiltshire | FWD | 0 in 1g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 33% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 3/26g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Bruhn | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/12g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 4/44g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/38g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 77% | 29 ✗ |
| Jai Newcombe | 23.5 | $1.93 | 52% | 25 ✗ |
| James Sicily ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 70% | 20 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.89 | 68% | 26 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 18 ✓ |
| Connor Macdonald ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.83 | 78% | 26 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 19 ✓ |
| Conor Nash | 19.5 | $1.94 | 59% | 17 ✓ |
| Jack Scrimshaw ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.94 | 73% | 13 ✓ |
| Josh Battle | 18.5 | $1.94 | 55% | 15 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 17.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 23 ✗ |
| Josh Weddle | 16.5 | $1.79 | 61% | 13 ✓ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.91 | 68% | 33 ✗ |
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 27 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 22 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 22 ✓ |
| Tanner Bruhn ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.92 | 93% | 26 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 12 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 20 ✗ |
| Shaun Mannagh ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 6 ✓ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 16.5 | $1.90 | 48% | 12 ✓ |
| Mark Blicavs ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 14 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie | 15.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 19 ✗ |
| Jeremy Cameron ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.94 | 63% | 16 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-06 08:42 UTC (latest tip update)