# Brisbane Lions v Collingwood — AFL Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 119 – 65 Collingwood

_Brisbane Lions put Collingwood to the sword._

Half time: 62 – 33 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 56% / Collingwood 44% · Gabba · Thu, 02 Apr, 07:30 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Kai Lohmann (3' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Dayne Zorko (10'), Logan Morris (14' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Oscar Allen (19' ×3), Lincoln McCarthy (40' ×2), Will Ashcroft (54'), Final quarter (30m 26s)Logan Morris (66'), Zac Bailey (68' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Bruce Reville (84') · Collingwood: Daniel McStay (6' ×4), Jamie Elliott (17' Tipped ⚡), Roan Steele (44'), Lachlan Sullivan (47'), Lachie Schultz (75' Tipped ⚡), Jordan de Goey (82'), Tim Membrey (86' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 56% | Won |
| Collingwood | 44% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.7 predicted → 54 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 4, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 Apr 2026, 07:40 am · Last updated: 3 Apr 2026, 08:59 am_

Brisbane Lions 119–65 Collingwood in AFL Round 4 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane Lions wanted the ball in their hands all day. Collingwood wanted a contest, any contest, and were happy to go direct and hope for the best. Only one of those plans survived the afternoon, and the scoreboard at the Gabba read 119 to 65 by the final siren.

The disposal count tells you everything about how lopsided that argument became: 425 to 310. Brisbane also won the footy at the source, 131 contested possessions to 92, and turned that into 42 clearances against Collingwood's 24. When you control that much of the ball and win the hard-ball fights on top of it, you're not so much winning the game as running two different training drills on the same ground.

The quarter-by-quarter split shows how it built. Brisbane led by 21 at quarter time, 40 to 19, and stretched that out to 29 points by half time, 62 to 33. Collingwood actually won the third term, 19 to 17, clawing the margin back to 27 at the last change, 79 to 52. Then Brisbane put on 40 points to Collingwood's 13 in the final quarter and turned a competitive-looking scoreline into a rout. Whatever Collingwood found in that third term, Brisbane found a lot more of when it mattered.

Brisbane's forward entries backed up all that possession. Sixty-four inside 50s to 45, and crucially they were far more efficient once they got there, 20 marks inside 50 to Collingwood's 5. That's the difference between a side taking the simple option in front of goal and one that's flinging it forward and hoping. Brisbane's 150 marks overall to Collingwood's 71 says the same thing in a different way: Brisbane were happy to

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 40 | 22 | 17 | 40 | 119 |
| Collingwood | 19 | 14 | 19 | 13 | 65 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| **425** | Disposals | 310 |
| **131** | Contested poss. | 92 |
| **42** | Clearances | 24 |
| **64** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **150** | Marks | 71 |
| **20** | Marks inside 50 | 5 |
| 33 | Tackles | **46** |
| 23 | Hit-outs | **29** |
| **66** | Intercepts | 54 |
| **76.2%** | Disposal eff. | 75.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.7 but the actual margin was 54 points. The game's 184 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 168. Brisbane Lions led 62–33 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 54. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.38 (edge -16.7%) — model probability 55.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +17.5 @ $1.90 (edge -16.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 3 · Predicted total: 168

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 30 · 24 | 24 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 4.7/g |
| Disposals | 79/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.7/g | 17.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.7/g | 8.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 62.7% | 67.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 13 | 10 · 5 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 167/g | 136/g |
| Inside 50s | 23/g | 19/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.3/g | 2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.3% | 72.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 5 | 1 · 1 |
| Goal Assists | 2/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposals | 138/g | 142/g |
| Inside 50s | 15/g | 13/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.2% | 78.8% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.59/g (lg 0.49) +20% · Defenders 1.22/g (lg 1.19) +3% · Midfielders 2.31/g (lg 2.48) -7%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.49) +4% · Forwards 4.23/g (lg 4.43) -5% · Midfielders 2.3/g (lg 2.48) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 8 in 3g | 19/10g (0·3·2·1·0·1·4·4·2·2) | 30/18g | 173/92g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 79% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 5 in 3g | 18/10g (1·2·2·2·3·1·2·2·1·2) | 4/4g | 29/26g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' 68' 78' |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 5 in 2g | 24/10g (6·3·4·1·1·2·1·1·3·2) | 7/4g | 36/20g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 77' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 4 in 3g | 15/10g (0·2·2·3·1·2·1·1·1·2) | 18/13g | 78/83g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 4 in 3g | 12/10g (0·0·2·2·4·0·0·1·1·2) | 15/7g | 10/10g | 70% | — | 🏉 19' 32' 43' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 3 in 2g | 18/10g (2·2·2·0·1·3·2·3·1·2) | 16/13g | 80/83g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' 82' |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 3/13g | 24% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 7/22g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 15/21g | 131/154g | 14% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | James Tunstill | MID | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 5/15g | 44/93g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 12/33g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Keidean Coleman | DEF | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 6/33g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 5/13g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Lincoln McCarthy | FWD | 1 in 2g | 9/10g (2·1·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 6/8g | 81/63g | 74% | — | 🏉 40' 88' |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 8/39g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Darragh Joyce | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/15g | 7/42g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 11/19g | 38/81g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 23/113g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 0 in 2g | 12/10g (3·1·1·1·3·2·0·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 2/6g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 0 in 3g | 4/9g (0·0·0·1·3·0·0·0·0) | 3/1g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·2·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 12/28g | 28% | — | 🏉 54' |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 5 in 3g | 11/10g (1·1·1·0·2·0·1·2·2·1) | 7/10g | 1/4g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 5 in 3g | 13/10g (2·1·1·2·0·0·2·0·1·4) | 19/12g | 10/9g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 86' |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 4 in 3g | 18/10g (1·1·0·2·2·4·4·1·2·1) | 24/14g | 16/15g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 5/9g | 3/4g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 3 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 8/5g | 64/86g | 68% | — | 🏉 6' 8' 76' 80' |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 3 in 3g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·3·0·0) | 25/15g | 22/12g | 54% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | 3 in 3g | 3/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/12g | 2/9g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/9g | 2/8g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/18g | 9/26g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 1/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Steene | RUC | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/15g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/18g | 4/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 5/13g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 2/6g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 0 in 3g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·1·3·0·0·0·0) | 9/19g | 5/13g | 30% | — | — |
| – | William Hayes | FWD | no games | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 28.5 | $1.89 | 34% | 29 ✗ |
| Will Ashcroft | 28.5 | $1.81 | 50% | 36 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko | 28.5 | $1.98 | 51% | 28 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 22.5 | $1.98 | 35% | 23 ✗ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 22.5 | $1.93 | 57% | 27 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 22.5 | $1.96 | 48% | 21 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 21.5 | $1.77 | 52% | 20 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey | 21.5 | $1.91 | 53% | 25 ✗ |
| Keidean Coleman ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 22 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 18.5 | $1.99 | 40% | 25 ✗ |
| Ryan Lester | 16.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 19 ✗ |
| Bruce Reville ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 15 ✓ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.95 | 74% | 25 ✓ |
| Dan Houston ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.90 | 75% | 32 ✗ |
| Jack Crisp | 21.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 15 ✓ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 19.5 | $1.85 | 45% | 11 ✓ |
| Jordan De Goey ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.84 | 71% | 15 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 17.5 | $1.80 | 61% | 12 ✓ |
| Brayden Maynard | 17.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 24 ✗ |
| Lachie Schultz ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.80 | 67% | 10 ✓ |
| Isaac Quaynor | 15.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 12 ✓ |
| Harry Perryman | 15.5 | $1.90 | 46% | 12 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-02 21:59 UTC (latest tip update)