# Adelaide Crows v Fremantle — AFL Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 76 – 78 Fremantle

_Fremantle hold off a fast-finishing Adelaide Crows._

Half time: 29 – 54 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 49% / Fremantle 51% · Adelaide Oval · Fri, 03 Apr, 07:15 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Finnbar Maley (3' 1st), Jordan Dawson (14' ×2), Sam Berry (23'), Alex Neal-Bullen (46'), Zac Taylor (72'), Josh Rachele (79' Tipped ⚡), Riley Thilthorpe (84' Tipped ⚡), Brayden Cook (88'), James Peatling (90'), Taylor Walker (67' Tipped ⚡) · Fremantle: Isaiah Dudley (7' Tipped ⚡), Patrick Voss (9' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jye Amiss (18' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Josh Treacy (22' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Andrew Brayshaw (42'), Shai Bolton (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 51% | Won |
| Adelaide Crows | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.5 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Fremantle Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 4, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Apr 2026, 12:40 pm · Last updated: 3 Apr 2026, 10:08 pm_

Adelaide Crows 76–78 Fremantle in AFL Round 4 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time at Adelaide Oval had Fremantle in control, up 54 to 29. Adelaide had scored just 8 points in the second term to Fremantle's 27, and on that trajectory it looked done and dusted. It wasn't.

Adelaide came out for the third quarter and flipped the game, outscoring Fremantle 30 to 9 to trail by just four at the last change, 63 to 59. The final term was tighter again, Adelaide 17 to Fremantle's 15, but it wasn't quite enough. Fremantle got home 78 to 76.

Look at the full stat sheet and the result makes more sense than the scoreboard swings suggest. Fremantle won the footy count, 358 disposals to 306, and the contested ball too, 145 to 134. They went inside 50 more often, 55 times to Adelaide's 48, and used it better, hitting targets at 74.9% efficiency to Adelaide's 71.2%. Clearances were even, 39 apiece, but everywhere else Fremantle had more of the ball and did more with it.

Adelaide's response wasn't built on volume, it was built on pressure and precision. They laid 83 tackles to Fremantle's 69, a big gap, and when they did get the ball inside 50 they made it count: 16 marks inside 50 to Fremantle's 12. That gives some shape to the third-quarter turnaround. Adelaide couldn't match Fremantle possession for possession, so they choked the space around the ball and made their forward entries count instead. For a period, it worked. In the end, it wasn't quite enough to get across the line.

The ruck battle is worth a mention too. Fremantle edged the hit-outs, 48 to 46, a minor category on its own but one that fed into their broader control of general play through the middle. Adelaide's 68 intercepts to Fremantle's 66 shows they weren't beaten in every facet, they just couldn't turn enough of that ball-winning into scoreboard pressure across four quarters.

Going in, the numbers had Fremantle rated ahead in every key position group: 1061 in the ruck to Adelaide's 963, 1089 up forward to 1030, 986 in the midfield to 968, and 1007 in defence to 987. Those gaps are modest rather than overwhelming, and that's roughly how the game played out, a genuine contest rather than a mismatch, with Fremantle's edges just enough to get them home by two points.

Recent form coming in told an odd story for Fremantle: an average margin of minus 1.0 across their last five games against Adelaide's plus 14.2, despite Fremantle carrying more wins in that stretch, 3.48 to 2.06. Translation: Fremantle had been scraping through close finishes rather than dominating them. This was exactly that kind of afternoon, tight enough that the extra polish in disposal use and forward pressure was the difference, rather than any real gulf in output between the two sides.

Alphr's model had this one close to right. It gave Fremantle the win at 51% and picked the margin at 0.5 points against an actual margin of 2, about as sharp a margin read as you'll get. The total of 154 points landed 24 below the model's predicted 178, with Fremantle covering the 1.5-point line and the draw margin band call landing. Three from four on this one, a result the shape of the game backs up.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 21 | 8 | 30 | 17 | 76 |
| Fremantle | 27 | 27 | 9 | 15 | 78 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 306 | Disposals | **358** |
| 134 | Contested poss. | **145** |
| 39 | Clearances | 39 |
| 48 | Inside 50s | **55** |
| **66** | Marks | 64 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| **83** | Tackles | 69 |
| 46 | Hit-outs | **48** |
| **68** | Intercepts | 66 |
| 71.2% | Disposal eff. | **74.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 51% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Fremantle by 0.5 vs the actual margin of 2 points. The game's 154 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 178. The model went 3/4 on this match. Fremantle covered the 1.5-point line. The Draw margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.84 (edge -3.1%) — model probability 51.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +1.5 @ $1.89 (edge -3.1%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle Draw @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 175.5 @ $1.93 (edge +3.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 1 · Predicted total: 178

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 26 · 22 | 26 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 6.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 79/g |
| Inside 50s | 25/g | 14.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.3/g | 9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 63.5% | 64.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 9 | 18 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 5.3/g |
| Disposals | 110/g | 184/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.7/g | 30.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.8% | 71.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 3 | 0 · 2 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 9/g | 9.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.1% | 80.2% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.34/g (lg 4.43) -2% · Midfielders 2.18/g (lg 2.47) -12% · Key Forwards 3.3/g (lg 3.75) -12%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.22/g (lg 1.19) +3% · Forwards 4.29/g (lg 4.43) -3% · Midfielders 2.31/g (lg 2.47) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 6 in 3g | 25/10g (3·4·3·1·3·2·3·3·2·1) | 5/3g | 66/47g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 84' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 4 in 3g | 19/10g (5·3·3·0·2·0·2·1·2·1) | 9/4g | 59/41g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 3 in 2g | 18/10g (2·2·3·3·2·1·2·0·0·3) | 25/15g | 292/131g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 3 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·3) | 0/1g | 2/17g | 27% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/12g | 16/28g | 46% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 2 in 2g | 17/10g (1·5·1·2·1·3·1·1·1·1) | 6/5g | 69/37g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 3/4g | 22/50g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 1 in 3g | 9/10g (3·0·1·0·3·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 65/77g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/17g | 28% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (1·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 31/57g | 46% | — | 🏉 14' 72' |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 1 in 3g | 11/10g (1·0·1·1·3·3·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 24/22g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/40g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Chayce Jones | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 15/54g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Finnbar Maley | KF | 0 in 1g | 4/8g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 3' |
| – | Hugh Bond | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 0 in 3g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·3·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/16g | 36% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/33g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/40g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 9/81g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/44g | 20% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 18/70g | 6% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 10 in 3g | 22/10g (0·0·3·2·2·3·2·2·4·4) | 4/4g | 7/6g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 84' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 7 in 3g | 14/10g (1·1·0·1·2·0·2·3·3·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 4 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 0/6g | 1/7g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 4 in 3g | 10/10g (0·1·0·2·0·2·1·2·2·0) | 4/6g | 13/13g | 68% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 3 in 3g | 15/10g (2·3·3·0·0·3·1·1·0·2) | 5/3g | 4/4g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 40' 44' 70' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 3 in 3g | 10/10g (1·1·1·0·1·2·1·1·1·1) | 5/5g | 5/10g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 3 in 3g | 10/10g (0·1·1·2·1·1·1·1·2·0) | 1/1g | 2/1g | 76% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/8g | 1/10g | 34% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 2 in 3g | 23/10g (6·3·3·3·0·3·3·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 3/1g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' 51' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (3·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 3/8g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 1/4g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/9g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 2/9g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 2/9g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.92 | 78% | 23 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $2.00 | 63% | 23 ✗ |
| Wayne Milera ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 27 ✗ |
| Josh Rachele ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 94% | 19 ✓ |
| Sam Berry ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 87% | 21 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.94 | 64% | 12 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.89 | 74% | 14 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 75% | 26 ✗ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.91 | 69% | 19 ✗ |
| Brayden Cook ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 10 ✓ |
| Riley Thilthorpe | 13.5 | $1.93 | 61% | 15 ✗ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.83 | 67% | 32 ✗ |
| Andrew Brayshaw ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 25 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.85 | 84% | 21 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | 23.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 76% | 26 ✗ |
| Neil Erasmus | 19.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 20 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 19.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 10 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 18.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 20 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson | 17.5 | $1.94 | 45% | 20 ✗ |
| Jaeger O'Meara | 17.5 | $1.90 | 52% | 11 ✓ |
| Corey Wagner ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 18 ✗ |
| Karl Worner | 16.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 10 ✓ |
| Heath Chapman ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.86 | 68% | 16 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-03 11:08 UTC (latest tip update)