Win Probability
AI Game Review
Brisbane Lions defied the model's 53% prediction for St Kilda — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.6 but the actual margin was 33 points. The game's 193 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 168. Brisbane Lions trailed 39–31 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 80–113. A tough result for the model — all 4 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
53%
Brisbane Lions
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives St Kilda a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees St Kilda ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. St Kilda carry a 245-point ELO rating advantage (1482 vs 1237). Recent form favours St Kilda with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts St Kilda by 7.6 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Kilda to Win @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.7%
Line / Spread
St Kilda +12.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.7%
Margin Band
St Kilda 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 187.5 @1.87
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | WWWWL | 90.4 |
Brisbane Lions | WLLLL | 67.0 |
Avg Conceded
88.0
St Kilda
106.6
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
2.4
St Kilda
-39.6
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
376.8
St Kilda
346.8
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.0
St Kilda
50.0
Brisbane Lions
ELO–Market Disagreement
St Kilda hold the ELO advantage (1482 vs 1237), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.65).
The model sides with ELO — St Kilda predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
St Kilda predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +7.6
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.