AFL | Round 3

Brisbane Lions defied the model's 53% prediction for St Kilda, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.6 but the actual margin was 33 points. The game's 193 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 168. Brisbane Lions trailed 39–31 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 80–113. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

53%St KildaFavourite

St Kilda

53%

Brisbane Lions

47%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives St Kilda a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees St Kilda ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Defensive ELO. Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts St Kilda by 7.6 points with a combined total of 168.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Kilda to Win @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+13.7%

✗

Line / Spread

St Kilda +12.5 @1.90

Lost ✗

Edge

+13.7%

✗

Margin Band

St Kilda 1-39 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 187.5 @1.87

Lost ✗

Edge

+1.5%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
St Kilda	W L L L L	80.4
Brisbane Lions	W W L L L	98.2

Avg Conceded

96.3

St Kilda

80.6

Brisbane Lions

Avg Margin

23.0

St Kilda

9.6

Brisbane Lions

Disposals

364.1

St Kilda

359.1

Brisbane Lions

Inside 50s

45.9

St Kilda

49.0

Brisbane Lions

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

St Kilda hold the ELO advantage (1486 vs 1472), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.65).

The model sides with ELO, St Kilda predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

STK

1486Overall1472

BRI

ELO difference: +13 in favour of St Kilda

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1016Midfield970

STK +46

935Forwards980

BRI +44

969Defence935

STK +34

951Ruck1003

BRI +52

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STK

Stat

BRI

1.2

Wins (Last 5)

2.1

80.4pts

Avg Score

98.2pts

96.3pts

Avg Conceded

80.6pts

23.0pts

Avg Margin

9.6pts

364.1

Disposals

359.1

45.9

Inside 50s

49.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Kilda

Midfield ELO11.0%

Kilda

Recent Win Rate10.0%

—

Forward Line ELO9.0%

Lions

Defensive ELO8.0%

Kilda

Venue Advantage7.0%

Kilda

H2H History6.0%

—

Model Confidence

53%

St Kilda predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 168 · Line: +7.6

0/4 predictions correct

Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props