# St Kilda v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 80 – 113 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions fight back to run down St Kilda._

Half time: 39 – 31 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 53% / Brisbane Lions 47% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 28 Mar, 12:35 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Liam Ryan (21' ×3 1st), Cooper Sharman (37' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jack Higgins (61' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Owens (71' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Alix Tauru (94') · Brisbane Lions: Oscar Allen (36' ×2), Levi Ashcroft (50'), Cam Rayner (62' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jarrod Berry (64'), Zac Bailey (69' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Logan Morris (77' Tipped ⚡), Lincoln McCarthy (88'), Kai Lohmann (62' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Keidean Coleman (72'), Jaspa Fletcher (74'), Charlie Cameron (78' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 53% | Lost |
| Brisbane Lions | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.6 predicted → 33 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda Saints vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 26 Mar 2026, 10:03 pm · Last updated: 28 Mar 2026, 03:55 pm_

St Kilda 80–113 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 3 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Kilda led by eight at quarter time, 13 to 5, and still had it at half time, 39 to 31. Then Brisbane Lions found two extra points by the last change, up 68 to 66, and from there they simply ran away with it. Final score: Brisbane Lions 113, St Kilda 80.

That last quarter is the whole story. St Kilda scored 14 points after three-quarter time. Brisbane scored 45. A two-point game turned into a 33-point beating in the space of one quarter, and nothing in the first three quarters really warned you it was coming.

Look at the disposal efficiency and it starts to make sense. Brisbane finished at 72.7 per cent, St Kilda at 68.5. Not a huge gap on paper, but it's the kind of gap that compounds when a team is trying to defend a lead deep in the last quarter. Brisbane also won the footy outright, 399 disposals to 336, and won it at the source, 42 clearances to St Kilda's 28. St Kilda had more of the ball early through sheer will, evidently, because once Brisbane's midfield got its hands on enough of it, St Kilda couldn't wrestle it back.

The ruck battle is the strange stat of the day. St Kilda dominated hit-outs, 44 to 24, which is the sort of number that usually buys a team first use of the ball all afternoon. It didn't matter much here. Brisbane still out-marked them 107 to 93, including 14 marks inside 50 to 12, and turned first use into second and third use through sheer volume of the ball in Brisbane hands.

St Kilda's one clear advantage was the pressure game: 64 tackles to 56, and 79 intercepts to Brisbane's 70. That's a team that read the play and put bodies on it. Problem is, you can out-tackle and out-intercept a side and still concede 113 points if the team you're up against is finding 72.7 per cent efficiency and 52 inside 50s of its own. Defence held up in patches. It didn't hold up in the one quarter that decided the game.

Going in, the ratings had Brisbane's forward line and ruck stronger on paper, 980 to 935 and 1003 to 951, with St Kilda rated up in midfield and defence. St Kilda's form line also had them the better side of late, a healthy average margin of nearly 23 points against Brisbane's under 10. None of that lined up with a 33-point Brisbane win.

Alphr's model had St Kilda favourites at 53 per cent and predicted a 7.6-point St Kilda win in a game worth 168 points combined. The teams combined for 193, and Brisbane won by 33 going the other way. Every one of the four picks missed. A tough one to have called, and no use pretending otherwise: Brisbane's last quarter simply wasn't in the numbers beforehand, and it's the number that ended up mattering most.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 13 | 26 | 27 | 14 | 80 |
| Brisbane Lions | 5 | 26 | 37 | 45 | 113 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 336 | Disposals | **399** |
| 133 | Contested poss. | **139** |
| 28 | Clearances | **42** |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 52 |
| 93 | Marks | **107** |
| 12 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| **64** | Tackles | 56 |
| **44** | Hit-outs | 24 |
| **79** | Intercepts | 70 |
| 68.5% | Disposal eff. | **72.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

Brisbane Lions defied the model's 53% prediction for St Kilda, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.6 but the actual margin was 33 points. The game's 193 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 168. Brisbane Lions trailed 39–31 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 80–113. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $2.55 (edge +13.7%) — model probability 52.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +12.5 @ $1.90 (edge +13.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 187.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 8 · Predicted total: 168

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 29 | 17 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 71/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.3/g | 15/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7/g | 6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 63.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 10 | 4 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 161/g | 165/g |
| Inside 50s | 27.3/g | 24.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3/g | 4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.9% | 73.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 0 | 2 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 141/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.7/g | 15/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.2% | 73.9% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.49) +6% · Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.5) -5% · Forwards 4.18/g (lg 4.41) -5%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.76/g (lg 2.5) +10% · Key Forwards 3.71/g (lg 3.74) -1% · Forwards 4.29/g (lg 4.41) -3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 6 in 3g | 13/10g (3·0·0·1·1·0·2·1·4·1) | 1/1g | 11/13g | 69% | — | — |
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 5 in 3g | 18/10g (0·2·4·2·2·3·0·1·2·2) | 13/8g | 97/65g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' 65' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 5 in 3g | 13/10g (1·1·1·2·2·0·1·2·2·1) | 2/7g | 50/43g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' 66' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 4 in 3g | 12/10g (0·2·4·0·1·1·0·1·3·0) | 2/5g | 12/50g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 3 in 3g | 11/10g (1·2·1·1·3·0·0·1·1·1) | 18/7g | 22/15g | 64% | — | 🏉 21' 52' 56' |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 17% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 8/16g | 21/83g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 2 in 3g | 16/10g (2·2·2·1·2·3·2·2·0·0) | 1/5g | 49/39g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' 47' 74' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 2 in 3g | 10/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·5·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 16/22g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (0·2·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 11/12g | 85/81g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 13/24g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/78g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dan Butler | FWD | no games | 10/10g (0·2·1·0·4·0·2·1·0·0) | 11/11g | 68/61g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Dougal Howard | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/48g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/15g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jack Carroll | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/12g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 29/39g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 40/109g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/43g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 7/40g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 47/79g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 5/12g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 11/31g | 26% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 6 in 2g | 17/10g (0·0·3·2·1·0·1·4·4·2) | 22/14g | 45/23g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 3 in 2g | 17/10g (1·1·2·2·2·3·1·2·2·1) | 2/5g | 4/6g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' 84' |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 3 in 1g | 22/10g (0·6·3·4·1·1·2·1·1·3) | 7/3g | 9/5g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 2 in 2g | 15/10g (2·0·2·2·3·1·2·1·1·1) | 11/10g | 18/18g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' 77' |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 2 in 2g | 10/10g (0·0·0·2·2·4·0·0·1·1) | 12/7g | 18/11g | 68% | — | 🏉 36' 44' |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 11/16g | 25/39g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 1 in 1g | 17/10g (1·2·2·2·0·1·3·2·3·1) | 10/9g | 22/16g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' 68' |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/22g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/9g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 8/10g | 9/19g | 26% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/7g | 22% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 38/64g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Keidean Coleman | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/5g | 10% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/17g | 18/32g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 33% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Lincoln McCarthy | FWD | 0 in 1g | 10/10g (2·2·1·1·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 8/7g | 13/16g | 74% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 9/31g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 0 in 1g | 13/10g (1·3·1·1·1·3·2·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 19/23g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 0 in 2g | 4/8g (0·0·0·1·3·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·2·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/6g | 30% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.95 | 70% | 29 ✓ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.82 | 66% | 29 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.92 | 87% | 22 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager | 25.5 | $1.85 | 62% | 19 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 67% | 24 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill | 19.5 | $1.91 | 42% | 21 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilson ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.94 | 75% | 16 ✓ |
| Hugo Garcia | 17.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 12 ✓ |
| Max Hall | 17.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 17 ✓ |
| Tom De Koning ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 11 ✓ |
| Mattaes Phillipou ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 96% | 15 ✓ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 30.5 | $1.80 | 47% | 19 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko | 29.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 28 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft | 28.5 | $1.95 | 53% | 31 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 23.5 | $1.94 | 54% | 15 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 22.5 | $1.92 | 34% | 24 ✗ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 22.5 | $1.77 | 55% | 17 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey | 21.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 17 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 19.5 | $1.83 | 46% | 31 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 17.5 | $1.85 | 34% | 25 ✗ |
| Keidean Coleman | 17.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 21 ✗ |
| Cam Rayner | 15.5 | $2.00 | 54% | 12 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-28 04:55 UTC (latest tip update)