Win Probability
AI Game Review
West Coast Eagles defied the model's 57% prediction for Port Adelaide — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 20.5 but the actual margin was 2 points. West Coast Eagles trailed 54–46 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 90–92. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 191.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
57%
West Coast Eagles
43%
AI Match Overview
Port Adelaide hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though West Coast Eagles are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Port Adelaide ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Port Adelaide carry a 46-point ELO rating advantage (1531 vs 1485). Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 20.5 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @1.29
Lost ✗
Edge
-20.5%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide -24.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-20.5%
Margin Band
Port Adelaide 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 191.5 @1.87
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | WWWLL | 101.0 |
West Coast Eagles | WWWWL | 106.7 |
Avg Conceded
73.9
Port Adelaide
100.0
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
22.5
Port Adelaide
10.4
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
353.1
Port Adelaide
337.6
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
50.0
Port Adelaide
43.3
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 21 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +20.5
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.