# Port Adelaide v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 90 – 92 West Coast Eagles

_West Coast Eagles surge back to soar past Port Adelaide._

Half time: 54 – 46 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 57% / West Coast Eagles 43% · Adelaide Oval · Sun, 29 Mar, 12:30 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Jack Watkins (3' 1st), Jack Whitlock (5' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Georgiades (14' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Corey Durdin (42' ×2), Final quarter (31m 9s)Darcy Byrne-Jones (64'), Jason Horne-Francis (82' Tipped ⚡), Lachie Jones (87') · West Coast Eagles: Bo Allan (12' ×2), Elliot Yeo (29'), Jake Waterman (38' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Jack Graham (48'), Willem Duursma (60'), Harley Reid (67' ×2), Jamie Cripps (81' Tipped ⚡), Hamish Davis (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 57% | Lost |
| West Coast Eagles | 43% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 20.5 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 26 Mar 2026, 10:21 pm · Last updated: 29 Mar 2026, 03:54 pm_

Port Adelaide 90–92 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 3 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Port Adelaide led by 22 at the first change, 35 to 13, and looked like they might have this one put away early. West Coast Eagles had other ideas.

By half-time the margin was down to 8, Port Adelaide 54, West Coast Eagles 46. That's a 33-point turnaround in one quarter from the visitors, the kind of shift that changes the whole complexion of a game. Then came the third term, where West Coast Eagles didn't just close the gap, they blew through it. Port Adelaide managed 11 points for the quarter, West Coast Eagles piled on 30, and suddenly the home side was chasing an 11-point deficit at the last change, 76 to 65.

Port Adelaide had one more crack in them. They scored 25 in the final quarter to West Coast Eagles' 16, clawing back to within striking distance, but it wasn't enough. West Coast Eagles held on, 92 to 90.

The clearance count tells you where this one turned. West Coast Eagles won that battle 42 to 27, a gulf that let them dictate terms through the middle when it mattered most, particularly in that third-quarter surge. Port Adelaide's disposal count, 340 to 303, and their inside 50 tally, 54 to 42, show a side that had the ball plenty and kept pushing forward. But general possession doesn't win you the game if the other mob is winning it out of the middle and converting.

Port Adelaide were the tidier side going forward, with 16 marks inside 50 to West Coast Eagles' 13, and they held the edges in marks overall (91 to 70), hit-outs (45 to 40) and intercepts (65 to 58). All of that speaks to the forward and ruck strength this side carried in, rated at 1052 and 1068 against West Coast Eagles' 957 and 1017. On paper, Port Adelaide should have used that advantage to control the game from end to end. Instead it was West Coast Eagles's clearance work, and whatever they did with it through that third quarter, that decided things.

Port Adelaide came into this one rated well ahead on recent form, averaging 100.9 points scored and just 73.9 conceded across their last five, with an average winning margin over 22 points. West Coast Eagles's defensive numbers over the same stretch, conceding just under 100 a game, suggested a side that could be got at. For three quarters that read looked right. Then West Coast Eagles turned it on when the game was there to be won, and Port Adelaide's fourth-quarter response fell agonisingly short.

Alphr's model had Port Adelaide favourites here, rated 1531 to 1485, expecting a 20.5-point win. Instead West Coast Eagles got home by 2, in a match where the total landed under the 191.5 line. Wins and misses, all of it. The margin call was well off, but sometimes the side with the ball doesn't win the game, the side that wins it out of the middle does.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 35 | 19 | 11 | 25 | 90 |
| West Coast Eagles | 13 | 33 | 30 | 16 | 92 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **340** | Disposals | 303 |
| 122 | Contested poss. | **126** |
| 27 | Clearances | **42** |
| **54** | Inside 50s | 42 |
| **91** | Marks | 70 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 13 |
| **60** | Tackles | 58 |
| **45** | Hit-outs | 40 |
| **65** | Intercepts | 58 |
| **71.8%** | Disposal eff. | 71.0% |

**Model Report Card**

West Coast Eagles defied the model's 57% prediction for Port Adelaide, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 20.5 but the actual margin was 2 points. West Coast Eagles trailed 54–46 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 90–92. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 191.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.29 (edge -20.5%) — model probability 57.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -24.5 @ $1.91 (edge -20.5%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 191.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 21 · Predicted total: 168

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 5 in 2g | 25/10g (4·3·2·1·3·2·1·4·3·2) | 6/3g | 100/52g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 35' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 4 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·2) | 9/5g | 10/7g | 54% | — | 🏉 42' 54' |
| – | Jack Lukosius | FWD | 3 in 1g | 13/10g (0·2·1·0·3·0·2·0·2·3) | 4/8g | 9/11g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 67% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 3 in 2g | 10/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·3·0·3) | 5/4g | 39/39g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 82' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 5/13g | 45/121g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 2 in 2g | 6/6g (0·0·3·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 8' 91' |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 4/8g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·2) | 3/2g | 13/14g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Jack Watkins | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 3' |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 9/30g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 4/22g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/6g | 11/74g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/66g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 2/28g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ewan Mackinlay | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/35g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 24/63g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/43g | 4% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/13g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Will Brodie | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 30/77g | 18% | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 4 in 2g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·2·2) | 4/13g | 6/15g | 32% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 4 in 2g | 21/10g (2·0·4·2·3·1·2·3·3·1) | 4/4g | 11/10g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 64' 78' 78' |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 3 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 3 in 2g | 12/10g (1·0·1·2·2·1·1·1·0·3) | 16/15g | 28/16g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 81' |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 3 in 2g | 14/10g (2·1·1·0·1·3·0·3·1·2) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 81% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 76% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cooper Duff-Tytler | KF | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.51 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Jacob Newton | FWD | 1 in 2g | 2/4g (0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 12' 44' |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Deven Robertson | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/5g | 40% | — | 🏉 67' 71' |
| – | Harry Schoenberg | FWD | no games | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 14/36g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 3/13g | 14% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Josh Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 7/16g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/16g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/8g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 4/13g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.88 | 80% | 30 ✓ |
| Will Brodie ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.81 | 68% | 18 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 78% | 18 ✓ |
| Willem Drew | 20.5 | $1.94 | 59% | 20 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 25 ✗ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 19.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 21 ✗ |
| Jack Watkins ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.91 | 69% | 19 ✗ |
| Logan Evans ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.88 | 85% | 19 ✗ |
| Joe Richards ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.90 | 72% | 14 ✓ |
| Aliir Aliir | 15.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 12 ✓ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 21 ✓ |
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 20 ✓ |
| Deven Robertson ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 100% | 16 ✓ |
| Elliot Yeo | 20.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 7 ✓ |
| Tim Kelly | 20.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 23 ✗ |
| Liam Baker | 20.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 20 ✓ |
| Jack Graham | 19.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 13 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 19.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 14 ✓ |
| Josh Lindsay ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 19 ✗ |
| Brady Hough | 15.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 11 ✓ |
| Harry Schoenberg ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.85 | 71% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-29 04:54 UTC (latest tip update)