Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 18.8 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The game's 128 points came in 40 points lower than the predicted 168. The model went 2/4 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
73%
Adelaide Crows
27%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Adelaide Crows. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Geelong Cats carry a 27-point ELO rating advantage (1526 vs 1499). The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 18.8 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.23
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.1%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -26.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-8.1%
Margin Band
Geelong Cats 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 166.5 @1.86
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | WWWLL | 70.8 |
Adelaide Crows | WWWLL | 79.2 |
Avg Conceded
86.1
Geelong Cats
89.9
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
-2.4
Geelong Cats
-4.6
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
374.9
Geelong Cats
377.7
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
42.1
Geelong Cats
45.4
Adelaide Crows
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 19 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +18.8
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.