# Geelong Cats v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 68 – 60 Adelaide Crows

_Geelong Cats survive a scare against Adelaide Crows._

Half time: 41 – 33 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 73% / Adelaide Crows 27% · GMHBA Stadium · Thu, 26 Mar, 07:30 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Tom Stewart (6' 1st), Oliver Henry (9'), Shaun Mannagh (15' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Dempsey (29' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Martin (59' ×2), Max Holmes (64') · Adelaide Crows: Zac Taylor (12' ×3), Riley Thilthorpe (19' Tipped ⚡), Josh Rachele (37' Tipped ⚡), Isaac Cumming (47'), Izak Rankine (54' Tipped ⚡), Alex Neal-Bullen (66'), Nick Murray (92')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 73% | Won |
| Adelaide Crows | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 18.8 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Mar 2026, 08:48 pm · Last updated: 27 Mar 2026, 03:25 am_

Geelong Cats 68–60 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 3 at GMHBA Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Geelong Cats 68, Adelaide Crows 60. Straightforward enough on paper, except the margin moved around all day and never really settled. Geelong led by 14 at quarter time, were down to just 4 by the three-quarter mark, then found another 17 points in the last term to get home by 8. This was tighter than the final scoreline wants you to believe.

The quarter-by-quarter tells the real story. Geelong went out to 28-14 early, doing what a side with 67 inside 50s to 45 should do. Adelaide clawed it back across the middle two quarters, cutting a 14-point deficit down to 4 by the last change. Whatever plan the Crows had for shutting the game down, it worked for a half. It just didn't survive the final twenty minutes.

Adelaide's ruck division had the better day by a distance, 51 hit-outs to 38, and their disposal efficiency was cleaner too at 69.3% against Geelong's 65.8%. On raw craft, this was arguably an even contest, maybe better than even for the Crows. But hit-outs and clean hands don't mean much if you can't get first use, and Geelong won the clearance count 42-35 and turned that into territory: 67 inside 50s to 45, and a lopsided 98 marks to 65.

That's the number that actually decides this. Geelong had 409 disposals to Adelaide's 329, an 80-possession gap built almost entirely on marking the ball and resetting from it. Adelaide moved the ball better when they had it. Geelong just had it far more often, and backed that up with 82 intercepts to 73, reading the ball in defence often enough to keep denying second and third efforts forward.

Adelaide's forward and ruck ratings going in were both stronger than Geelong's, 1022 to 969 and 1021 to 975, and for stretches of this game that showed. It's why they were still only 4 points back at the final change despite getting out-marked and out-run all afternoon. Their issue wasn't quality, it was volume, and volume is what wins territory battles over four quarters.

Alphr's model had Geelong at 73% to win with a predicted margin of 18.8 and a combined total of 168. The winner was right. The margin wasn't especially close, 8 points actual against a near-19 point tip, and the total missed by 40, with the game landing at 128. The 1-39 margin band still came in, which is the only reason this one scraped to 2 from 4 rather than worse.

Adelaide's recent form had them scoring at a healthier clip than Geelong coming in, 79.16 to 70.75 on average, but also conceding more, 89.85 to 86.14. Both trends showed up here. They put up 60, more than useful, but leaked enough repeat entries that it wasn't enough.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 28 | 13 | 10 | 17 | 68 |
| Adelaide Crows | 14 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 60 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| **409** | Disposals | 329 |
| **159** | Contested poss. | 127 |
| **42** | Clearances | 35 |
| **67** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **98** | Marks | 65 |
| **8** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| **76** | Tackles | 72 |
| 38 | Hit-outs | **51** |
| **82** | Intercepts | 73 |
| 65.8% | Disposal eff. | **69.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 18.8 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The game's 128 points came in 40 points lower than the predicted 168. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.23 (edge -8.1%) — model probability 73.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -26.5 @ $1.91 (edge -8.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 19 · Predicted total: 168

### H2H History (Last 5) — Geelong Cats lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R13 | Adelaide Crows | 75 – 74 | Geelong Cats |
| 2025 | R5 | Adelaide Crows | 100 – 119 | Geelong Cats |
| 2024 | R21 | Geelong Cats | 90 – 85 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2024 | R2 | Adelaide Crows | 77 – 96 | Geelong Cats |
| 2023 | R8 | Geelong Cats | 98 – 72 | Adelaide Crows |

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GMHBA Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 6 in 2g | 23/10g (0·4·3·3·4·1·1·1·1·5) | 2/3g | 35/19g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 86% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 4 in 2g | 15/10g (0·1·1·1·1·3·0·4·4·0) | 2/4g | 20/24g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.37 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' 87' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 4 in 2g | 15/10g (0·0·3·3·2·0·2·1·1·3) | 3/3g | 18/15g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' |
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 3 in 1g | 38/10g (5·11·6·4·0·4·2·3·0·3) | 39/17g | 125/45g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 97% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jhye Clark | DEF | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 2 in 1g | 11/10g (0·2·1·1·1·2·0·1·1·2) | 7/6g | 35/24g | 78% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 2/12g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 14/61g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 1 in 2g | 12/10g (2·0·4·2·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 11/9g | 68% | — | 🏉 59' 77' |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·1·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 13/9g | 42/55g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/14g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 5/18g | 22/97g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/52g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 15/39g | 40% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Mitchell Edwards | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/18g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Wiltshire | FWD | no games | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/34g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Bruhn | DEF | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 7/15g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 10/53g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/68g | 6% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/46g | 2% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 5 in 2g | 26/10g (2·3·4·3·1·3·2·3·3·2) | 4/4g | 3/3g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 4 in 2g | 11/10g (0·1·1·1·2·1·0·1·2·2) | 10/6g | 4/3g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 3 in 2g | 19/10g (1·5·3·3·0·2·0·2·1·2) | 4/3g | 3/2g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.64 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 30% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (1·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 3/5g | 2/3g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (3·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 10/13g | 4/6g | 44% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 1 in 2g | 10/10g (1·3·0·1·0·3·0·1·1·0) | 5/8g | 2/3g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 1 in 1g | 17/10g (1·1·5·1·2·1·3·1·1·1) | 8/5g | 2/2g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.47 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 54' |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 1 in 2g | 12/10g (1·1·0·1·1·3·3·1·1·0) | 2/2g | 2/1g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Chayce Jones | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Finnbar Maley | KF | no games | 4/7g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 57% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Bond | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 0 in 2g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·1·3·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 25% | — | 🏉 12' 78' 84' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 30.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 40 ✗ |
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 27 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.85 | 76% | 25 ✗ |
| Tanner Bruhn ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.91 | 92% | 15 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 24 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 20.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 23 ✗ |
| Lawson Humphries ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.91 | 70% | 12 ✓ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 17.5 | $1.84 | 59% | 24 ✗ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 16.5 | $1.92 | 46% | 21 ✗ |
| Zach Guthrie | 15.5 | $1.90 | 49% | 8 ✓ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Milera ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.83 | 79% | 19 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 30 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.88 | 79% | 22 ✗ |
| Sam Berry ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.89 | 77% | 22 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.78 | 70% | 7 ✓ |
| Josh Rachele ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.89 | 89% | 31 ✗ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | 17.5 | $1.93 | 56% | 11 ✓ |
| Isaac Cumming | 15.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 10 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-26 16:25 UTC (latest tip update)