# Fremantle v Richmond — AFL Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 103 – 43 Richmond

_Fremantle demolish Richmond._

Half time: 39 – 33 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 69% / Richmond 31% · Optus Stadium · Sat, 28 Mar, 04:15 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Jye Amiss (18' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Josh Treacy (38' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Isaiah Dudley (45' Tipped ⚡), Caleb Serong (60' ×2), Matthew Johnson (80'), Patrick Voss (83' Tipped ⚡), Sean Darcy (78') · Richmond: Steely Green (36' ×3), Tim Taranto (58'), Jonty Faull (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 69% | Won |
| Richmond | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.5 predicted → 60 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Richmond Tigers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 26 Mar 2026, 10:06 pm · Last updated: 29 Mar 2026, 03:50 am_

Fremantle 103–43 Richmond in AFL Round 3 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Richmond arrived with the better recent form on paper. Three wins from their last five to Fremantle's fewer than two, an average score of 96.3 against Fremantle's 83.0, and a scoring margin that sat almost dead level over that stretch. None of it showed up when it counted.

For a half, Richmond actually held their own. Fremantle led 11-3 at quarter time, a gap that looked ominous, but Richmond clawed it back to within six by the main break, 39-33. They were still finding it inside 50 often enough, still competing in the intercept game, where they finished just two behind Fremantle, 57 to 59. That's a stat that says Richmond's defensive read of the ball wasn't the problem.

The problem was everywhere else, and it showed up brutally in the third quarter. Fremantle piled on from 39-33 to 78-34, a term where Richmond managed a single point while conceding 39. That's the passage that turned a competitive contest into a procession, and by the final change the game was already decided in all but scoreboard formality.

Look at the totals and it's not hard to see why Richmond couldn't hold the line. Fremantle finished with 398 disposals to 314, and used it better too, hitting targets at 74.4% against Richmond's 69.8%. Richmond's forward half often had the ball but rarely had it long enough to matter.

The clearance count tells the rest of the story. Fremantle won that battle 41-26, and the hit-out numbers explain why: 57 to 9. Fremantle's ruck rating of 1095 against Richmond's 941 was the biggest positional gap on the sheet coming in, and it played out almost exactly as advertised, giving Fremantle first use of the ball at contest after contest.

That midfield dominance fed everything forward. Fremantle went inside 50 sixty-three times to 36, and once there, they finished, with 17 marks inside 50 to Richmond's 7. Marks across the ground told a similar tale, 93 to 64. Richmond's forwards simply didn't get the service, and their defenders, for all their intercept work, were left defending wave after wave.

Alphr's model backed Fremantle at 69% and got the winner right, but the margin was never going to be close to what it produced. A tip of 12.5 points turned into 60. The total was closer to the mark, predicted at 168 against an actual 146, and the model's over call at 143.5 landed. Three from four isn't a bad return, but a 60-point margin against a Richmond outfit that had been scoring at 96 a game is the sort of miss that reminds you form lines only tell you so much once the ball's actually bounced.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 11 | 28 | 39 | 25 | 103 |
| Richmond | 3 | 30 | 1 | 9 | 43 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **398** | Disposals | 314 |
| **146** | Contested poss. | 118 |
| **41** | Clearances | 26 |
| **63** | Inside 50s | 36 |
| **93** | Marks | 64 |
| **17** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| **61** | Tackles | 53 |
| **57** | Hit-outs | 9 |
| **59** | Intercepts | 57 |
| **74.4%** | Disposal eff. | 69.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.5 but the actual margin was 60 points. The game's 146 points came in 22 points lower than the predicted 168. Fremantle led 39–33 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 60. The model went 3/4 on this match. Fremantle covered the 48.5-point line. The over 143.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.03 (edge -27.7%) — model probability 69.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -48.5 @ $1.90 (edge -27.7%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 143.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 13 · Predicted total: 168

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 6 in 2g | 15/10g (2·1·1·0·1·2·0·2·3·3) | 0/1g | 15/11g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 6 in 2g | 19/10g (1·0·0·3·2·2·3·2·2·4) | 16/5g | 69/44g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 62' 93' 69' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 4 in 2g | 12/10g (2·0·1·0·2·0·2·1·2·2) | 2/1g | 36/24g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 3 in 2g | 10/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·1·1·1·2) | 1/1g | 16/15g | 78% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 3/9g | 33/90g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/7g | 24/68g | 40% | — | 🏉 60' 72' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 2 in 2g | 9/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 2/5g | 38/43g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 1 in 2g | 15/10g (2·2·3·3·0·0·3·1·1·0) | 7/4g | 58/40g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 18' 72' |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 6/31g | 18% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 1 in 2g | 23/10g (1·6·3·3·3·0·3·3·0·1) | 1/1g | 23/18g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 83' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (1·3·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 40/55g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/63g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 21/68g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/23g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/39g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 12/36g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 8/54g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/20g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/91g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/25g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 23/66g | 26% | — | 🏉 78' |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 3 in 2g | 11/10g (2·1·1·0·0·2·2·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 3 in 2g | 11/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·3·2·0·3) | 0/3g | 2/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 63% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 46% | — | 🏉 36' 49' 55' |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 2/10g | 2/7g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Harry Armstrong | KF | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (0·2·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.67 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/5g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/10g | 6/9g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 1 in 1g | 13/10g (1·3·1·2·0·1·2·2·0·1) | 2/1g | 3/1g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.73 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/14g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Gray | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 3/9g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jasper Alger | FWD | no games | 2/4g (0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/1g | 48% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 4/4g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/7g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 8/12g | 38% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 2/3g | 22% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $1.79 | 76% | 32 ✗ |
| Andrew Brayshaw ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.85 | 74% | 21 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.85 | 70% | 27 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.80 | 87% | 33 ✗ |
| Luke Jackson ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 81% | 17 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 21.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 14 ✓ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 82% | 23 ✗ |
| Neil Erasmus ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 21 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson | 18.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 17 ✓ |
| Karl Worner ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 14 ✓ |
| Heath Chapman ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 19 ✗ |
| Corey Wagner ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 22 ✗ |
| Jaeger O'Meara | 16.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 19 ✗ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.92 | 70% | 24 ✓ |
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 82% | 20 ✓ |
| Jacob Hopper | 23.5 | $2.00 | 41% | 20 ✓ |
| Sam Banks | 21.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 18 ✓ |
| Jack Ross | 21.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 23 ✗ |
| Dion Prestia | 19.5 | $1.87 | 29% | 16 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 18.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 19 ✗ |
| Tyler Sonsie | 16.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 20 ✗ |
| Sam Lalor ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.78 | 72% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r3-fremantle-v-richmond
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-03-28 16:50 UTC (latest tip update)