Win Probability
AI Game Review
North Melbourne defied the model's 51% prediction for Essendon, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.1 but the actual margin was 12 points. The game's 150 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 168. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 190.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Essendon
51%
North Melbourne
49%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Essendon a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Essendon ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Essendon carry a 89-point ELO rating advantage (1514 vs 1425). Recent form favours Essendon with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts Essendon by 11.1 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Essendon to Win @2.60
Lost ✗
Edge
+12.1%
Line / Spread
Essendon +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.1%
Margin Band
Essendon 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 190.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | W W W W L | 98.2 |
North Melbourne | W W L L L | 109.2 |
Avg Conceded
79.0
Essendon
79.8
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
0.1
Essendon
26.4
North Melbourne
Disposals
337.8
Essendon
369.3
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
52.1
Essendon
48.1
North Melbourne
ELO–Market Disagreement
Essendon hold the ELO advantage (1514 vs 1425), but the market favours North Melbourne (@1.63).
The model sides with ELO, Essendon predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Essendon predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +11.1
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