# Essendon v North Melbourne — AFL Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 69 – 81 North Melbourne

_North Melbourne hold off a fast-finishing Essendon._

Half time: 32 – 44 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 51% / North Melbourne 49% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 28 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Lachlan Blakiston (2' 1st), Isaac Kako (28'), Peter Wright (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jye Caldwell (66'), Saad El-Hawli (77'), Jade Gresham (79'), Zach Merrett (83') · North Melbourne: Cameron Zurhaar (7' Tipped ⚡), Zane Duursma (14' ×3), Nick Larkey (34' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tristan Xerri (39'), Lachy Dovaston (57'), Cooper Trembath (66' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Paul Curtis (75' Tipped ⚡), Tom Blamires (84')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 51% | Lost |
| North Melbourne | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 11.1 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 26 Mar 2026, 10:18 pm · Last updated: 29 Mar 2026, 01:31 am_

Essendon 69–81 North Melbourne in AFL Round 3 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne beat Essendon 81-69 at Marvel Stadium, and the scoreboard tells two different stories depending on when you look. At quarter time it was tight, 20-17. By half time it was a workable gap, 44-32. Then the third quarter happened, and North Melbourne turned a handy lead into what looked like a done deal, outscoring Essendon 34-10 to push the margin out to 36 points, 78-42, at the last change.

That should have been that. Instead Essendon won the final quarter 27-3, dragging the margin back from 36 points to 12 by the siren. It wasn't enough to complete the comeback, but it was enough to make the final margin look nothing like the game that produced it.

The third quarter is where this one was actually decided, and the numbers back it up. North Melbourne finished with 388 disposals to Essendon's 328, and a lot of that gap opened up through the middle of the ground in that period. North Melbourne won clearances 31 to 21 for the match and used it to control field position when it mattered most.

Essendon actually won the territory battle in gross terms, going inside 50 52 times to North Melbourne's 47, and their ruck division dominated hit-outs 25 to 13. Neither delivered enough scoreboard reward. North Melbourne were far more efficient with what they had, hitting targets at 79.9% compared to Essendon's 75.3%, and they made their entries count, taking 19 marks inside 50 to Essendon's 15 and out-marking Essendon overall 132 to 85.

Essendon's response came on the defensive end. They laid 54 tackles to North Melbourne's 38 and read the ball in defence well enough to rack up 67 intercepts to 53. That pressure is presumably what fuelled the final-quarter fightback, but it came too late to matter for the result, only for the respectability of the margin.

Going in, Alphr's ratings had Essendon the stronger side across the park, including a big edge in defence, 1051 to 895, and in the forward line, 1000 to 955. North Melbourne's recent form told a different story. They came in averaging 109.2 points a game over their last five compared to Essendon's 98.2, and their average winning margin over that stretch was 26.4 points against Essendon's razor-thin 0.1.

Alphr's model had Essendon favoured by 11.1 points with a combined total of 168. The result flipped that, North Melbourne winning by 12, and the total landed at 150, eighteen points under the projection. The model went 2 from 4 on this one. Essendon covered the 12.5-point line, and the under on the 190.5 total was the right call, even if picking the winner wasn't.

Strip away the final margin and what you get is a game North Melbourne controlled for three quarters through cleaner use of the ball and better ball use inside 50, before Essendon's pressure finally showed up on the scoreboard when it no longer changed the outcome. The gap that mattered was the 36-point buffer built in the third term, not the 12-point margin that closed it out.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 17 | 15 | 10 | 27 | 69 |
| North Melbourne | 20 | 24 | 34 | 3 | 81 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 328 | Disposals | **388** |
| 105 | Contested poss. | **112** |
| 21 | Clearances | **31** |
| **52** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| 85 | Marks | **132** |
| 15 | Marks inside 50 | **19** |
| **54** | Tackles | 38 |
| **25** | Hit-outs | 13 |
| **67** | Intercepts | 53 |
| 75.3% | Disposal eff. | **79.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

North Melbourne defied the model's 51% prediction for Essendon, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.1 but the actual margin was 12 points. The game's 150 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 168. The model went 2/4 on this match. Essendon covered the 12.5-point line. The under 190.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $2.60 (edge +12.1%) — model probability 50.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.1%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Essendon 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 190.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 11 · Predicted total: 168

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 5 in 2g | 14/10g (1·2·0·0·1·3·1·1·1·4) | 2/1g | 18/11g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 74% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 3 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 0/6g | 12/34g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 9/7g | 31/35g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (1·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 2/7g | 7/21g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/4g | 10/31g | 44% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 4/5g | 11/21g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·2·1·1) | 1/1g | 5/8g | 62% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·1) | 18/12g | 67/55g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 56% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 1 in 2g | 9/10g (0·2·2·0·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 22/11g | 80/40g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' 68' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/17g | 30/88g | 32% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 8/63g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | no games | 1/5g (1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Archer May | KF | 0 in 1g | 7/8g (0·2·3·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/35g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Parish | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 16/56g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Farrow | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | no games | 5/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 9/13g | 77/92g | 48% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 9% | — | 🏉 2' |
| – | Matt Guelfi | FWD | no games | 8/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·3·0) | 8/9g | 24/39g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Saad El-Hawli | DEF | no games | 1/9g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 11% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Johnson | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 10 in 2g | 30/10g (2·1·0·3·1·5·5·3·4·6) | 13/9g | 132/60g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' 61' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 4 in 2g | 15/10g (0·2·3·0·3·2·0·1·2·2) | 19/10g | 97/64g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 3 in 2g | 12/5g (3·3·3·3·0) | 0/0g | 6/2g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' 78' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 3 in 2g | 17/10g (1·1·2·0·2·0·5·3·1·2) | 0/2g | 50/36g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 6/23g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 6/19g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 0/3g | 3/23g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/11g | 32/80g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Lachy Dovaston | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/14g | 11/101g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 14/18g | 36/42g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 15/43g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 4/12g | 34% | — | 🏉 14' 21' 36' |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/44g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 30/99g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Callum Coleman-Jones | RUC | no games | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/4g | 8/13g | 31% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/17g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 10/31g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 23/57g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/15g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 12/33g | 20% | — | 🏉 39' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 27.5 | $1.88 | 48% | 10 ✓ |
| Darcy Parish | 25.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 19 ✓ |
| Archie Roberts | 24.5 | $1.88 | 54% | 25 ✗ |
| Jye Caldwell ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 22 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 22.5 | $2.00 | 49% | 22 ✓ |
| Sam Durham | 21.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 19 ✓ |
| Zak Johnson ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 85% | 9 ✓ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 17.5 | $1.87 | 32% | 0 ✓ |
| Jaxon Prior ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.78 | 68% | 18 ✗ |
| Jacob Farrow ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 13 ✓ |
| Xavier Duursma | 15.5 | $1.89 | 34% | 17 ✗ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel ⚡ Under | 33.5 | $1.89 | 66% | 33 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.90 | 73% | 31 ✗ |
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 35 ✗ |
| Luke Parker | 23.5 | $2.00 | 53% | 33 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 22.5 | $1.92 | 57% | 22 ✓ |
| Tristan Xerri ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 89% | 15 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel | 21.5 | $1.88 | 37% | 23 ✗ |
| Tom Powell | 20.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 23 ✗ |
| Dylan Stephens | 18.5 | $1.88 | 54% | 23 ✗ |
| Finn O'Sullivan | 17.5 | $1.99 | 56% | 24 ✗ |
| Luke McDonald ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r3-essendon-v-north-melbourne
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-03-28 14:31 UTC (latest tip update)