# Collingwood v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 87 – 54 GWS GIANTS

_Collingwood see off GWS GIANTS._

Half time: 39 – 30 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 61% / GWS GIANTS 39% · Marvel Stadium · Fri, 27 Mar, 07:40 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Lachie Schultz (3' 1st Tipped ⚡), Daniel McStay (19'), Tim Membrey (21' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Nick Daicos (59' ×2), Oscar Steene (62'), Final quarter (30m 4s)Daniel McStay (58'), Jamie Elliott (62' Tipped ⚡), Dan Houston (72') · GWS GIANTS: Phoenix Gothard (4'), Jake Riccardi (28' Tipped ⚡), Max Gruzewski (41' Tipped ⚡), Jake Stringer (55' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harvey Thomas (65')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 61% | Won |
| GWS GIANTS | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.1 predicted → 33 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs GWS GIANTS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 26 Mar 2026, 09:59 pm · Last updated: 27 Mar 2026, 10:31 pm_

Collingwood 87–54 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 3 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

GWS GIANTS did plenty of the things that usually win footy games. They had the ball more, 425 disposals to Collingwood's 363, and they used it better too, hitting targets at 79.5 per cent against Collingwood's 76.3. They went inside 50 more often, 58 times to 50, and matched Collingwood on marks inside 50 at 15 apiece. On paper, that's a side controlling territory and general play.

None of it mattered where it counted. Collingwood won by 33, running out 87–54 at Marvel Stadium, and the gap between the stat sheet and the scoreboard tells its own story.

The ruck battle explains a fair chunk of it. GWS came in rated the stronger outfit there, 1004 to 959, but Collingwood won hit-outs 37 to 23. That's a proper mismatch on the day, and it fed into contested ball, where Collingwood edged it 119 to 114 despite having 62 fewer disposals overall. Collingwood also out-tackled them, 45 to 39, the sort of pressure number that turns clean possession into turnovers rather than scoreboard pressure.

The clearance count, 32 to 30 in GWS's favour, and the inside-50 disparity suggest GWS were doing the donkey work to get the ball forward. They just weren't cashing it in. Fifteen marks inside 50 each, but a scoreline 33 points apart, means Collingwood made their entries count and GWS didn't.

The quarter-by-quarter tells the real tale. Collingwood led 31–17 at the first break and 39–30 at half-time, a gap GWS actually started to close in the second term, only 8 points scored by Collingwood against 13 for GWS. Three-quarter time had it at 59–40, a 19-point margin. Then Collingwood put on 28 in the last quarter to GWS's 14 and turned a comfortable lead into a rout. That final term was the difference between a competitive loss and a 33-point beating.

GWS came in with the better recent form by some distance, 3.92 wins from their last five against Collingwood's 1.15, and they'd been conceding far less on average, 73.7 points to Collingwood's 96.8. Whatever was working in that stretch didn't show up here. Their midfield rating was the stronger one pre-match, 1049 to 1024, and it delivered the extra clearances and the disposal count, but Collingwood's forward efficiency and ruck dominance turned the ledger the other way.

Alphr's model backed Collingwood at 61 per cent and got the winner right, but the margin read was well off, tipped at 4.1 points against an actual 33. The total was closer to the mark in direction if not degree, projected at 168, with the game landing at 141, a defensive, low-scoring shootout by comparison to what was expected. Four from four on the picks that mattered, though the size of Collingwood's win was the one nobody saw coming.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 31 | 8 | 20 | 28 | 87 |
| GWS GIANTS | 17 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 54 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 363 | Disposals | **425** |
| **119** | Contested poss. | 114 |
| 30 | Clearances | **32** |
| 50 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| 104 | Marks | **124** |
| 15 | Marks inside 50 | 15 |
| **45** | Tackles | 39 |
| **37** | Hit-outs | 23 |
| **67** | Intercepts | 64 |
| 76.3% | Disposal eff. | **79.5%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.1 but the actual margin was 33 points. The game's 141 points came in 27 points lower than the predicted 168. Collingwood led 39–30 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 33. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.43 (edge -8.6%) — model probability 61.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -15.5 @ $1.91 (edge -8.6%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 4 · Predicted total: 168

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 4 in 2g | 11/10g (1·1·1·1·0·2·0·1·2·2) | 5/7g | 19/14g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 3 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 6/6g | 2/12g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 3 in 2g | 19/10g (2·1·1·0·2·2·4·4·1·2) | 16/11g | 37/23g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 3 in 2g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·3·0) | 9/10g | 38/20g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | 3 in 2g | 3/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 2 in 2g | 9/10g (1·3·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 1/5g | 10/11g | 60% | — | 🏉 59' 75' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (4·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 12/11g | 27/23g | 66% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/4g | 9/14g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 6/14g | 12/34g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 1 in 2g | 11/10g (2·2·1·1·2·0·0·2·0·1) | 13/11g | 174/101g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 25' 74' |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/12g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 3/25g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 7/20g | 24% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 11/23g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/15g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/16g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/19g | 10/34g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 15/18g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Steene | RUC | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 22/38g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 17/35g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 0 in 2g | 8/10g (2·0·2·0·0·1·3·0·0·0) | 10/16g | 19/37g | 32% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 6 in 3g | 21/10g (1·4·3·3·1·3·0·5·0·1) | 22/16g | 176/88g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' 84' |
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 5 in 3g | 21/10g (2·6·2·1·2·0·3·3·0·2) | 23/11g | 55/23g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 88% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 4 in 3g | 10/10g (2·0·2·0·1·0·1·3·1·0) | 4/4g | 21/13g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | 3 in 3g | 13/10g (2·0·0·2·0·3·3·2·0·1) | 2/1g | 2/2g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.43 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 41' |
| – | Phoenix Gothard | FWD | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (1·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 67% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 6/11g | 17/26g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 3/15g | 4/20g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 3/3g | 2/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 1 in 3g | 9/10g (2·0·0·5·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 8/5g | 6/8g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 42% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 1 in 3g | 15/10g (2·2·1·3·2·4·0·0·1·0) | 16/13g | 40/31g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 78% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 4/11g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/12g | 13/22g | 10% | — | — |
| – | James Leake | DEF | no games | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 12/56g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josaia Delana | FWD | 0 in 3g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/11g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/16g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 9/29g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hannaford | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 30.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 36 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 33 ✗ |
| Dan Houston ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.89 | 82% | 18 ✓ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 20.5 | $1.95 | 45% | 10 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 20.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 26 ✗ |
| Jordan De Goey ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 16 ✓ |
| Brayden Maynard | 17.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 18 ✗ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 17.5 | $1.96 | 60% | 16 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron | 17.5 | $1.78 | 58% | 12 ✓ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 17.5 | $1.75 | 35% | 31 ✗ |
| Isaac Quaynor | 16.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $2.00 | 62% | 11 ✓ |
| Harry Perryman | 16.5 | $1.95 | 52% | 15 ✓ |
| Beau McCreery ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.80 | 77% | 14 ✓ |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.88 | 72% | 39 ✗ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.89 | 85% | 28 ✓ |
| Finn Callaghan | 26.5 | $1.88 | 53% | 35 ✗ |
| Clayton Oliver | 26.5 | $1.99 | 51% | 37 ✗ |
| Stephen Coniglio ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 13 ✓ |
| Toby Greene ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.85 | 75% | 21 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg | 18.5 | $1.83 | 60% | 13 ✓ |
| Harvey Thomas ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 27 ✗ |
| Connor Idun ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 23 ✗ |
| Joe Fonti ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 21 ✗ |
| Ryan Angwin | 16.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 25 ✗ |
| Jayden Laverde | 16.5 | $1.83 | 51% | 17 ✗ |
| Xavier O'Halloran | 16.5 | $1.77 | 62% | 16 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-27 11:31 UTC (latest tip update)