Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
66%
Melbourne
34%
AI Match Overview
Carlton are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. The model sees Carlton ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Carlton carry a 57-point ELO rating advantage (1553 vs 1496). The margin model predicts Carlton by 8.1 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @1.97
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.1%
Line / Spread
Carlton +1.5 @1.89
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.1%
Margin Band
Carlton 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 180.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | W W W W L | 76.5 |
Melbourne | W W W W L | 94.5 |
Avg Conceded
96.1
Carlton
94.5
Melbourne
Avg Margin
25.5
Carlton
-9.8
Melbourne
Disposals
332.1
Carlton
334.8
Melbourne
Inside 50s
57.9
Carlton
57.1
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Carlton predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +8.1
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