# Fremantle v Hawthorn — AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Fremantle v Hawthorn
Thu, 03 Sept, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Qualifying & Elimination Finals

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.43 (edge -3.3%) — model probability 66.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -14.5 @ $1.90 (edge +1.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 163.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 16 · Predicted total: 168

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Fremantle | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 98.6pts | Avg Score | 97.6pts |
| 80.6pts | Avg Conceded | 76.8pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Margin | 20.8pts |
| 358.8 | Disposals | 394.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.8 | Tackles | 53.8 |
| 37.8 | Clearances | 34.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 W · R24 L | 98.6 |
| Hawthorn | R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 D · R24 W | 97.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-03 12:42 UTC (latest tip update)