# West Coast Eagles v Hawthorn — AFL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 45 – 107 Hawthorn

_Hawthorn run riot over West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 25 – 64 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 12% / Hawthorn 88% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 23 Aug, 07:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Milan Murdock (15' ×3), Jake Waterman (69' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (30m 21s)Jack Williams (70'), Harley Reid (96') · Hawthorn: Mitch Lewis (3' 1st Tipped ⚡), Nick Watson (14' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jack Gunston (20' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Dylan Moore (23' Tipped ⚡), Max Beattie (52' ×2), Will Day (79' ×2), Jai Newcombe (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 88% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 12% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 52.3 predicted → 62 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 24, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 Aug 2026, 06:41 pm · Last updated: 23 Aug 2026, 10:08 pm_

West Coast Eagles 45–107 Hawthorn in AFL Round 24 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

West Coast Eagles took a methodical approach, but ambition and attacking thrust won out. Hawthorn's 107–45 victory at Optus Stadium highlighted the contrast in styles. The Eagles aimed to control the ball, with 361 disposals to the Hawks' 367, but Hawthorn's ambition saw them surge forward more frequently and effectively.

The Eagles were on the back foot early, trailing 37–8 at quarter time. By half time, Hawthorn had extended their lead to 64–25. The final siren confirmed a convincing 62-point win for the Hawks. While the Eagles' ruck division outmatched Hawthorn in hit-outs, 48 to 36, it was Hawthorn's midfield that outmanoeuvred their opposition with 41 clearances to 31. Their intent was clear: move the ball forward and put the Eagles under pressure.

And pressure they applied. The Hawks laid 73 tackles compared to West Coast's 56, maintaining an intensity that the Eagles couldn't match. Their relentless drive put them inside the 50 arc 66 times, a stark contrast to West Coast's 46 entries. In this game of distance, West Coast's perceived control was overshadowed by Hawthorn's execution and efficiency.

Inside the forward 50, Hawthorn's efficiency was evident. They took 17 marks to the Eagles’ six, showing cleaner hands and better positioning when it mattered most. It was a clinical display in front of goal, while the Eagles struggled to capitalise on their own entries.

This win marked Hawthorn's fourth successful outing in their last five matches. Their form was evident: averaging 100.6 points for and conceding just 78.2 in recent weeks. In contrast, the Eagles had yet to win a game in the same span, averaging 67.8 points scored and a hefty 103.4 conceded. The pattern held on the field again.

The stats highlighted Hawthorn's dominance and mirrored Alphr's pre-match read. An 88% win probability for Hawthorn indicated a strong prediction, with a projected margin of 52.3 points. The real margin landed at 62, slightly wider but well within the ballpark. A total score of 152 points was below the predicted 168, possibly a nod to Hawthorn's superior defensive effort.

What does the Eagles' future hold? Rethinking their approach might be a start, as the game of ambition and raw metres seems beyond their current capabilities. For Hawthorn, this was a display of their willingness to take risks and be rewarded for it. The numbers, once again, do the talking.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 8 | 17 | 6 | 14 | 45 |
| Hawthorn | 37 | 27 | 21 | 22 | 107 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 361 | Disposals | **367** |
| 139 | Contested poss. | **143** |
| 31 | Clearances | **41** |
| 46 | Inside 50s | **66** |
| 62 | Marks | **87** |
| 6 | Marks inside 50 | **17** |
| 56 | Tackles | **73** |
| **48** | Hit-outs | 36 |
| **79** | Intercepts | 76 |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 88% probability. The predicted margin of 52.3 was reasonable against the actual 62-point result. The game's 152 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 168. Hawthorn led 25–64 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 62. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.06 (edge -6.8%) — model probability 87.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -46.5 @ $1.90 (edge +5.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 52 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hawthorn here: 88% to see off West Coast Eagles. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hawthorn sit 505 ELO points clear, 1603 to 1098. Form leans Hawthorn's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for West Coast Eagles.

Hawthorn own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Stat Profile and Lineup Strength. The margin model has Hawthorn by 52.3, with the two sides combining for about 168. Hawthorn to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 67.8pts | Avg Score | 100.6pts |
| 103.4pts | Avg Conceded | 78.2pts |
| -35.6pts | Avg Margin | 22.4pts |
| 346.0 | Disposals | 404.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 64.4 | Tackles | 58.4 |
| 35.8 | Clearances | 37.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 L | 67.8 |
| Hawthorn | R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 D | 100.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 132 · 223 | 242 · 191 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 5.3/g |
| Disposals | 76/g | 118/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.5/g | 22/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.2/g | 10.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.9% | 68% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 60 · 76 | 44 · 65 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 129/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.1/g | 20.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.8% | 71.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 18 · 24 | 25 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 136/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.2/g | 13.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.7% | 81.3% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.37/g (lg 2.47) -4% · Forwards 4.18/g (lg 4.51) -7% · Key Forwards 3.48/g (lg 3.91) -11%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Midfielders 3.34/g (lg 2.47) +35% · Rucks 0.69/g (lg 0.52) +33% · Forwards 5.44/g (lg 4.51) +21%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 48 in 22g | 23/10g (3·3·0·3·1·5·1·2·3·2) | 8/7g | 123/71g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 84% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 29 in 22g | 16/10g (1·3·1·3·2·3·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 26/17g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 14 in 22g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 22/33g | 48% | — | 🏉 96' |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 14 in 21g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 9/11g | 61% | — | — |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 13 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/12g | 28/69g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 9 in 16g | 8/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 6/74g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 8 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 22/52g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·2·2·2·0) | 1/1g | 24/27g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.75 AI 56% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 8 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/8g | 11/32g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 6 in 22g | 5/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 3/52g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Milan Murdock | FWD | 6 in 8g | 6/8g (1·0·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 75% | — | 🏉 15' 39' 85' |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/14g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Duff-Tytler | KF | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/7g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/11g | 6/24g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/14g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/9g | 25/74g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Gross | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/11g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lindsay | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/17g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Herbert | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/23g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 54 in 16g | 30/10g (0·6·5·1·3·1·7·2·3·2) | 38/17g | 20/9g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 25' 42' 90' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 52 in 20g | 26/10g (2·2·3·3·3·5·3·5·0·0) | 2/2g | 5/3g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 62' 82' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 32 in 21g | 15/10g (3·0·1·2·1·1·5·0·0·2) | 8/4g | 4/3g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 82% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 29 in 17g | 19/10g (3·2·2·5·1·1·2·2·0·1) | 14/7g | 6/7g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 86% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 20 in 21g | 9/10g (0·4·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·1) | 5/6g | 8/6g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 16 in 22g | 7/10g (1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/4g | 4/4g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 9 in 22g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 2/11g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 7 in 22g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 1/5g | 30% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Will Day | MID | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·2·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/6g | 44% | — | 🏉 79' 80' |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 6 in 22g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 6 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/3g | 0/3g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 5 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 6/13g | 1/9g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 5 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 1/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/8g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 4 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 4/12g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jack Dalton | FWD | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/11g | 2/9g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Max Beattie | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | 🏉 52' 57' |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/66g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/9g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | 24.5 | — | 56% | 21 ✓ |
| Tim Kelly | 24.5 | — | 58% | 28 ✗ |
| Tom McCarthy | 22.5 | — | 59% | 20 ✓ |
| Cameron Mackenzie | 20.5 | — | — | — |
| Marcus Herbert | 20.5 | — | 63% | 20 ✓ |
| Connor MacDonald | 20.5 | — | 65% | 23 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan | 19.5 | — | 64% | — |
| Elliot Yeo | 19.5 | — | 76% | 25 ✗ |
| Josh Lindsay | 17.5 | — | 50% | 12 ✓ |
| Jack Graham | 17.5 | — | 61% | 21 ✗ |
| Liam Duggan | 16.5 | — | 49% | — |
| Liam Baker | 15.5 | — | 35% | 14 ✓ |
| Willem Duursma | 15.5 | — | 42% | 19 ✗ |
| Joshua Weddle | 15.5 | — | — | — |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 26.5 | — | 59% | 19 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey | 24.5 | — | 64% | 16 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 23.5 | — | 54% | 24 ✗ |
| Karl Amon | 21.5 | — | 60% | 13 ✓ |
| Josh Battle | 20.5 | — | 63% | 13 ✓ |
| Will Day | 20.5 | — | 57% | 23 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 20.5 | — | 56% | 18 ✓ |
| Dylan Moore | 19.5 | — | 68% | 22 ✗ |
| James Sicily | 19.5 | — | 48% | 19 ✓ |
| Blake Hardwick | 18.5 | — | 56% | 22 ✗ |
| Harry Morrison | 16.5 | — | 45% | 20 ✗ |
| Bailey Macdonald | 15.5 | — | 74% | 12 ✓ |
| Nick Watson | 14.5 | — | 68% | 12 ✓ |
| Lloyd Meek | 13.5 | — | 58% | 16 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — West Coast Eagles 1098 · Hawthorn 1603 · ELO difference: 505 in favour of Hawthorn

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | West Coast Eagles | Hawthorn | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1227 (best 1227) | 1132 (best 1185) | West Coast Eagles +95 |
| Forwards | 1020 (best 1283) | 1139 (best 1317) | Hawthorn +119 |
| Defence | 1144 (best 1315) | 1169 (best 1328) | Hawthorn +24 |
| Ruck | 1230 (best 1230) | 1188 (best 1376) | West Coast Eagles +42 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 50.2% | Hawthorn |
| 2 | Stat Profile | 14.4% | Hawthorn |
| 3 | Lineup Strength | 8.9% | Hawthorn |
| 4 | Recent Form | 7.2% | Hawthorn |
| 5 | Weather | 4.8% | West Coast Eagles |
| 6 | Ruck | 4.5% | Hawthorn |
| 7 | Forward Line | 4.5% | Hawthorn |

**Model Confidence: 88%** — Hawthorn predicted to win by 52 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 4/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-23 12:08 UTC (latest tip update)