# Sydney Swans v North Melbourne — AFL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 123 – 70 North Melbourne

_Sydney Swans sail past North Melbourne._

Half time: 61 – 35 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 83% / North Melbourne 17% · SCG · Sun, 23 Aug, 03:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Jesse Dattoli (16'), Tom Hanily (20'), Billy Cootee (21' ×2), Braeden Campbell (34' ×2), Jake Lloyd (36'), Tom Papley (38' Tipped ⚡), Charlie Curnow (40' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Logan McDonald (43' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (35m 34s)Billy Cootee (66'), Harry Kyle (74') · North Melbourne: Charlie Spargo (5' 1st), Paul Curtis (26' Tipped ⚡), Jy Simpkin (30'), Zac Banch (58'), Jack Darling (59' Tipped ⚡), Nick Larkey (74' Tipped ⚡), Cameron Zurhaar (82' ×2), Cooper Trembath (90' Tipped ⚡), Tristan Xerri (99')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 83% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 17% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 35.8 predicted → 53 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 24 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 Aug 2026, 09:32 pm · Last updated: 23 Aug 2026, 06:12 pm_

Sydney Swans 123–70 North Melbourne in AFL Round 24 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sydney Swans defeated North Melbourne 123–70 at the SCG. The final score suggests a comfortable win, but the game was tighter at points. At three-quarter time, North Melbourne trailed by just 21 points, 75–54. However, Sydney dominated the final quarter, outscoring North 48–16. The Swans' control in clearances, 48 to 31, was a key factor.

North Melbourne struggled to penetrate Sydney's defence, managing only 39 inside 50s compared to Sydney's 70. Despite having more marks, 106 to 77, North couldn't convert these into scoring opportunities. Their inability to capitalise in the forward line was evident.

Sydney's ruck division was effective, winning 41 hit-outs to North's 29. This advantage allowed their midfield to control the game. The Swans had 390 disposals to North's 372, and their edge in contested possessions, 145 to 119, kept North on the back foot.

Alphr’s model predicted an 83% chance of a Sydney win with a 35.8-point margin. While the winner was correctly picked, the actual margin was 53 points. The game total of 193 points exceeded the predicted 167. Sydney comfortably covered the 3.5-point line.

Sydney's recent form was indicative of their performance. With four wins in their last five games, they averaged 119.2 points scored and conceded 81.8. North, in contrast, averaged 86.2 scored and 97.2 conceded. Sydney played like a team accustomed to closing out games.

North Melbourne's recent form showed a 1-4 record, and despite having a stronger-rated forward line pre-match, they couldn't deliver on the day. Sydney's midfield, rated 1206 to North's 1163, was always going to be a decisive factor. It was.

North Melbourne had potential but failed to execute. Their higher-rated defence and ruck division didn't translate into control on the field. Even with a forward line rated at 1203 to Sydney's 994, they couldn't make it count.

Sydney fans at the SCG witnessed a strong finish from their team. The Swans capitalised on their strengths, seized key moments, and added another win to their record.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 27 | 34 | 14 | 48 | 123 |
| North Melbourne | 20 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 70 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **390** | Disposals | 372 |
| **145** | Contested poss. | 119 |
| **48** | Clearances | 31 |
| **70** | Inside 50s | 39 |
| 77 | Marks | **106** |
| 12 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| **69** | Tackles | 63 |
| **41** | Hit-outs | 29 |
| **64** | Intercepts | 59 |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 83% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 35.8 but the actual margin was 53 points. The game's 193 points came in 26 points higher than the predicted 167. Sydney Swans led 61–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 53. The model went 2/4 on this match. Sydney Swans covered the 3.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $2.10 (edge +35.6%) — model probability 83.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +39.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 189.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 36 · Predicted total: 167

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sydney Swans here: 83% to see off North Melbourne. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sydney Swans sit 393 ELO points clear, 1749 to 1356. Form leans Sydney Swans' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for North Melbourne.

Sydney Swans own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Venue and Weather. The margin model has Sydney Swans by 35.8, with the two sides combining for about 167. Sydney Swans to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sydney Swans | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 119.2pts | Avg Score | 86.2pts |
| 81.8pts | Avg Conceded | 97.2pts |
| 37.4pts | Avg Margin | -11.0pts |
| 366.8 | Disposals | 385.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 57.0 | Tackles | 52.0 |
| 39.2 | Clearances | 35.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 W | 119.2 |
| North Melbourne | R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 W · R23 L | 86.2 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Sydney Swans | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 234 · 166 | 200 · 187 |
| Goal Assists | 4.7/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposals | 97/g | 95/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.7/g | 14.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.4/g | 10.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.5% | 72.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Sydney Swans | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 112 · 70 | 53 · 86 |
| Goal Assists | 5.3/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 158/g | 151/g |
| Inside 50s | 28.8/g | 24/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3/g | 3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.2% | 72.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Sydney Swans | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 16 | 14 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 2/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 121/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.6/g | 9.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.6% | 81.2% |

**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Defenders 1.4/g (lg 1.05) +33% · Rucks 0.69/g (lg 0.52) +33% · Key Forwards 5.04/g (lg 3.91) +29%
**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.72/g (lg 0.52) +38% · Midfielders 2.35/g (lg 2.49) -6% · Forwards 4.17/g (lg 4.49) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 66 in 21g | 35/10g (2·3·3·6·5·0·4·3·5·4) | 23/9g | 40/16g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' 79' 82' |
| – | Logan McDonald | KF | 39 in 20g | 22/10g (2·2·1·3·1·1·3·4·3·2) | 9/3g | 62/43g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 83% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' 89' 96' |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 26 in 17g | 17/10g (1·2·2·0·2·4·2·1·3·0) | 21/11g | 156/94g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 17 in 22g | 10/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·1·0·3·2) | 4/17g | 26/129g | 36% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Billy Cootee | FWD | 9 in 8g | 9/8g (1·0·1·0·2·2·2·1) | 1/1g | 2/3g | 75% | — | 🏉 21' 68' |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 9 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/14g | 10/36g | 32% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 9 in 20g | 8/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·0·2·2·0) | 1/10g | 27/69g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jai Serong | MID | 7 in 21g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 3/10g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/23g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Errol Gulden | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/6g | 34/50g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Dattoli | FWD | 3 in 2g | 3/5g (0·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 40% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 5/31g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 2 in 5g | 6/10g (0·2·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 16/46g | 48% | — | 🏉 34' 71' |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/12g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 2 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 17/95g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tom Hanily | FWD | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (1·2·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 1/5g | 50% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/12g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 16/43g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 11/90g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 6/123g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harry Kyle | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 18/74g | 6% | — | — |
| – | William Green | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 44 in 22g | 18/10g (4·1·1·1·3·0·1·2·0·5) | 17/8g | 3/2g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 37 in 19g | 20/10g (3·2·0·0·3·3·2·2·4·1) | 4/6g | 0/2g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 83% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 35 in 21g | 20/10g (4·0·2·2·1·2·3·0·2·4) | 20/15g | 5/5g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 31 in 22g | 14/10g (1·4·1·0·1·1·0·3·0·3) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 90' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 12 in 22g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 9/13g | 4/4g | 40% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 11 in 18g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 6/11g | 0/3g | 38% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 8 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/10g | 3/4g | 40% | — | 🏉 82' 75' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 7 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 7 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 32% | — | 🏉 99' |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 6 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Zac Banch | FWD | 6 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 57% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 5 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/19g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 3 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 78/117g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 1/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Goater | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Dawson | RUC | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | 32.5 | — | 82% | 41 ✗ |
| Callum Mills | 24.5 | — | 66% | 26 ✗ |
| Angus Sheldrick | 22.5 | — | 83% | 16 ✓ |
| James Rowbottom | 20.5 | — | 89% | 19 ✓ |
| Jake Lloyd | 20.5 | — | 70% | 18 ✓ |
| Matthew Roberts | 20.5 | — | — | — |
| Brodie Grundy | 20.5 | — | 65% | 26 ✗ |
| Braeden Campbell | 20.5 | — | 94% | 20 ✓ |
| Jai Serong | 19.5 | — | 77% | 24 ✗ |
| Tom McCartin | 18.5 | — | 71% | 11 ✓ |
| Sam Wicks | 17.5 | — | 71% | 14 ✓ |
| Tom Blamires | 17.5 | — | 52% | — |
| Caiden Cleary | 17.5 | — | 93% | 18 ✗ |
| Bailey Scott | 15.5 | — | 84% | — |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Daniel | 25.5 | — | 60% | 26 ✗ |
| Luke Parker | 25.5 | — | 55% | 26 ✗ |
| Colby McKercher | 24.5 | — | 74% | 18 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 24.5 | — | 57% | 17 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 23.5 | — | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| Finn O'Sullivan | 22.5 | — | 74% | 20 ✓ |
| Dylan Stephens | 20.5 | — | 64% | 17 ✓ |
| Tristan Xerri | 18.5 | — | 76% | 21 ✗ |
| Cameron Zurhaar | 18.5 | — | 77% | 19 ✗ |
| George Wardlaw | 17.5 | — | 63% | 18 ✗ |
| Riley Hardeman | 15.5 | — | 68% | 20 ✗ |
| Luke McDonald | 15.5 | — | 56% | 24 ✗ |
| Paul Curtis | 15.5 | — | 81% | 7 ✓ |
| Charlie Spargo | 14.5 | — | 69% | 15 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Sydney Swans hold the ELO advantage (1749 vs 1356), but the market favours North Melbourne (@1.91). The model sides with ELO, Sydney Swans predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sydney Swans 1749 · North Melbourne 1356 · ELO difference: 393 in favour of Sydney Swans

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sydney Swans | North Melbourne | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1206 (best 1305) | 1163 (best 1195) | Sydney Swans +43 |
| Forwards | 994 (best 1250) | 1203 (best 1312) | North Melbourne +209 |
| Defence | 1093 (best 1155) | 1110 (best 1269) | North Melbourne +17 |
| Ruck | 1164 (best 1328) | 1380 (best 1380) | North Melbourne +216 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 58.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 2 | Forward Line | 9.1% | North Melbourne |
| 3 | Venue | 9.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 4 | Ruck | 6.5% | North Melbourne |
| 5 | Weather | 6.2% | Sydney Swans |
| 6 | Defence | 3.7% | North Melbourne |
| 7 | Stat Profile | 2.5% | Sydney Swans |

**Model Confidence: 83%** — Sydney Swans predicted to win by 36 points · Predicted total: 167 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-23 08:12 UTC (latest tip update)