# St Kilda v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 80 – 103 Gold Coast SUNS

_Gold Coast SUNS eclipse St Kilda._

Half time: 53 – 68 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 66% / Gold Coast SUNS 34% · Marvel Stadium · Thu, 20 Aug, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Max Hall (7' 1st Tipped ⚡), Liam Ryan (12' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ryan Byrnes (21' ×2), Hugo Garcia (28'), Rowan Marshall (31'), Mitch Owens (43' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Hugh Boxshall (46' ×3) · Gold Coast SUNS: Ben King (8' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Leo Lombard (16' ×3), Noah Anderson (19'), Lachlan Gulbin (29'), Nick Holman (34' ×2), Touk Miller (51'), Jed Walter (63' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ben Long (91' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 66% | Lost |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 34% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 11.7 predicted → 23 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 24, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 19 Aug 2026, 06:30 pm · Last updated: 20 Aug 2026, 10:08 pm_

St Kilda 80–103 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 24 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Kilda couldn't turn their statistical strengths into a win at Marvel Stadium, falling to Gold Coast SUNS 80-103. They had a higher disposal efficiency at 76.6% and were rated stronger in midfield and forward positions. But from the start, they trailed. Their 9 marks inside 50 were overshadowed by the SUNS' 17, showing a clear disconnect when it mattered most.

In the first quarter, St Kilda showed some promise, scoring 31 points to Gold Coast's 46. However, as the game progressed, their inability to capitalise on forward entries became clear. They recorded 51 inside 50s, matching the SUNS's 50, but fell short in securing marks in scoring positions. This allowed the SUNS defence to clear the danger effectively.

St Kilda struggled in the ruck, losing the hit-outs 45-28. This lack of dominance meant their midfield's potential wasn't realised. Despite having a higher midfield rating of 1354 over the SUNS' 1163, they were outclassed in clearances, 40 to 32. Winning possession is only useful if executed well, and St Kilda couldn't manage that on the day.

At half-time, the game was still within reach at 53-68. St Kilda's defensive efforts were commendable, leading tackles with 68 over Gold Coast's 60. But the pressure wasn’t enough to turn turnovers into points. The SUNS led intercepts too, with 66 to St Kilda’s 60, showcasing their defensive strength.

The third quarter was crucial. St Kilda only added 7 points while Gold Coast surged ahead to lead 88-60. St Kilda’s forward line failed to ignite. In the final quarter, they added a modest 20 points, while Gold Coast comfortably added 15, maintaining their lead and finishing with a 23-point margin.

Gold Coast's form suggested an upset was possible, despite being underdogs with a model prediction favouring St Kilda by 11.7 points. The result surprised many, as Gold Coast defied the 66% probability against them. They capitalised on St Kilda's missed opportunities with a solid performance.

St Kilda entered the match with a better recent run, two wins to one against the SUNS in their last five games. However, the SUNS were determined. Their strategic, effective ball movement and cleaner finishes in front of goal gave them a clear edge.

Alphr's model misread this one, going 1/4, with Gold Coast covering the 14.5-point line. In their last five outings, St Kilda's average score was slightly better at 82.4 compared to Gold Coast's 80.4. But games aren't won on paper. Gold Coast executed their plan effectively, turning the tables at Marvel.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 31 | 22 | 7 | 20 | 80 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 46 | 22 | 20 | 15 | 103 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Disposals | **389** |
| 121 | Contested poss. | **126** |
| 32 | Clearances | **40** |
| **51** | Inside 50s | 50 |
| 72 | Marks | **98** |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **17** |
| **68** | Tackles | 60 |
| 28 | Hit-outs | **45** |
| 60 | Intercepts | **66** |
| **76.6%** | Disposal eff. | 74.5% |

**Model Report Card**

Gold Coast SUNS defied the model's 66% prediction for St Kilda, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.7 but the actual margin was 23 points. Gold Coast SUNS led 53–68 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 23. The model went 1/4 on this match. Gold Coast SUNS covered the 14.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.45 (edge -3.0%) — model probability 66.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 12 · Predicted total: 170

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Kilda here: 66% to see off Gold Coast SUNS. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Kilda sit 93 ELO points clear, 1455 to 1362. Form leans St Kilda's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Gold Coast SUNS.

St Kilda own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Recent Form and Weather. The margin model has St Kilda by 11.7, with the two sides combining for about 170. St Kilda to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Kilda | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 82.4pts | Avg Score | 80.4pts |
| 84.4pts | Avg Conceded | 94.6pts |
| -2.0pts | Avg Margin | -14.2pts |
| 393.8 | Disposals | 345.6 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 56.6 | Tackles | 59.6 |
| 38.4 | Clearances | 38.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | R19 L · R20 W · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W | 82.4 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 W · R23 L | 80.4 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 182 · 194 | 219 · 204 |
| Goal Assists | 4.7/g | 5.2/g |
| Disposals | 106/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.5/g | 23/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.4/g | 9.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.8% | 67.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 70 · 59 | 34 · 72 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 153/g | 104/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.6/g | 17.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.3/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.2% | 70.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 28 · 15 | 24 · 19 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 139/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.8/g | 13.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.2% | 82.7% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Midfielders 2.59/g (lg 2.47) +5% · Forwards 4.69/g (lg 4.49) +4% · Defenders 1.07/g (lg 1.06) +1%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.6/g (lg 2.47) +5% · Key Forwards 4.06/g (lg 3.88) +5% · Forwards 4.15/g (lg 4.49) -8%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 31 in 16g | 23/10g (3·5·6·0·2·2·2·1·1·1) | 6/6g | 41/24g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 76' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 27 in 19g | 12/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·2·5) | 5/5g | 61/53g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' 67' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 26 in 20g | 13/10g (0·0·2·4·1·1·3·0·0·2) | 6/3g | 67/49g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 77% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 25 in 22g | 11/10g (1·1·0·1·0·2·0·3·2·1) | 1/2g | 22/25g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.37 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 16 in 21g | 5/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 22/33g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 13 in 20g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·2·0·1·1) | 2/9g | 57/90g | 48% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 11 in 19g | 8/10g (2·0·2·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 19/41g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 10 in 22g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 10/27g | 34% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 10 in 20g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 18/34g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 9 in 22g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 24/95g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Dan Butler | FWD | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 8/7g | 70/67g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 5 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/8g | 32/51g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Lake | FWD | 4 in 6g | 4/6g (0·0·1·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 4 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 10/52g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 8/52g | 16% | — | 🏉 21' 40' |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/9g | 13% | — | 🏉 46' 88' 86' |
| – | Angus Hastie | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/11g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/90g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dougal Howard | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/52g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 28/140g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/53g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 7% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 57 in 22g | 19/10g (3·1·1·3·1·1·3·2·2·2) | 17/8g | 45/20g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' 25' 84' |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 31 in 17g | 17/10g (1·2·2·1·3·0·2·3·1·2) | 1/2g | 10/8g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' 80' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 27 in 20g | 14/10g (2·0·4·0·2·1·1·3·0·1) | 4/5g | 34/54g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 91' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 22 in 19g | 14/10g (0·1·0·3·1·1·3·2·2·1) | 2/5g | 8/12g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 15 in 22g | 9/10g (1·2·0·1·1·2·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 53% | — | 🏉 16' 23' 45' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 12 in 14g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/4g | 49% | — | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 11 in 22g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·0) | 6/13g | 10/31g | 36% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 7 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 8/14g | 20% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 7 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/20g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 8/20g | 30% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Jake Rogers | FWD | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Gulbin | FWD | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 38% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Ned Moyle | RUC | 4 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/6g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/20g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Beau Addinsall | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/14g | 12/27g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 8/26g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 5/12g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/7g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/9g | 9/21g | 28% | — | 🏉 34' 82' |
| – | Ben Jepson | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Ballard | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/19g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Hill ⚡ Under | 33.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 42 ✗ |
| Hugo Garcia ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 28 ✗ |
| Max Hall ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.83 | 79% | 37 ✗ |
| Jackson Macrae | 25.5 | $1.87 | — | — |
| Marcus Windhager | 23.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 22 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilson | 21.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 25 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 19 ✓ |
| Christian Petracca | 20.5 | — | 53% | — |
| Liam Stocker | 19.5 | — | 81% | 24 ✗ |
| Mattaes Phillipou ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 19 ✓ |
| Zeke Uwland | 18.5 | — | 53% | — |
| Dougal Howard | 17.5 | — | 91% | 4 ✓ |
| Ryan Byrnes | 17.5 | — | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Rowan Marshall | 17.5 | — | 42% | 15 ✓ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 26.5 | $1.94 | 50% | 37 ✗ |
| Matt Rowell | 26.5 | $1.94 | 54% | 28 ✗ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.93 | 65% | 42 ✗ |
| Touk Miller | 24.5 | $1.79 | 61% | 40 ✗ |
| Bodhi Uwland ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 22 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli | 20.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 17 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey | 18.5 | — | 69% | 15 ✓ |
| Sam Clohesy | 18.5 | — | 70% | 13 ✓ |
| Mac Andrew | 17.5 | $1.77 | 57% | 19 ✗ |
| Bailey Humphrey ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.77 | 75% | 16 ✓ |
| Beau Addinsall | 15.5 | — | 38% | 20 ✗ |
| Jarrod Witts | 12.5 | — | 72% | 6 ✓ |
| Ben Jepson | 12.5 | — | 36% | 14 ✗ |
| Ethan Read | 12.5 | — | 82% | 9 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Kilda 1455 · Gold Coast SUNS 1362 · ELO difference: 93 in favour of St Kilda

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | St Kilda | Gold Coast SUNS | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1354 (best 1354) | 1163 (best 1163) | St Kilda +192 |
| Forwards | 1224 (best 1529) | 963 (best 1204) | St Kilda +261 |
| Defence | 1288 (best 1446) | 1155 (best 1309) | St Kilda +133 |
| Ruck | 1224 (best 1224) | 1141 (best 1282) | St Kilda +83 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 27.4% | St Kilda |
| 2 | Recent Form | 20.4% | St Kilda |
| 3 | Weather | 11.8% | St Kilda |
| 4 | Forward Line | 8.2% | St Kilda |
| 5 | Stat Profile | 7.8% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 6 | Defence | 7.2% | St Kilda |
| 7 | Venue | 6.3% | Gold Coast SUNS |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — St Kilda predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 170 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-20 12:08 UTC (latest tip update)