# Geelong Cats v Richmond — AFL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 133 – 76 Richmond

_Geelong Cats put Richmond to the sword._

Half time: 78 – 29 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 94% / Richmond 6% · GMHBA Stadium · Sat, 22 Aug, 07:45 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Shaun Mannagh (2' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Oliver Dempsey (10'), Jay Polkinghorne (15' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Shannon Neale (17' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Dangerfield (31' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Oliver Henry (49' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Bailey Smith (53' ×3), Lawson Humphries (88'), Final quarter (34m 43s)Shannon Neale (65'), Mitchell Edwards (87') · Richmond: Tim Taranto (4'), Tom Lynch (5' ×3), Seth Campbell (12'), Hugo Ralphsmith (67'), Steely Green (82' ×2), Samson Ryan (75' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 94% | Won |
| Richmond | 6% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 66.0 predicted → 57 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Richmond Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 24, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 Aug 2026, 06:41 pm · Last updated: 22 Aug 2026, 10:33 pm_

Geelong Cats 133–76 Richmond in AFL Round 24 at GMHBA Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

437 disposals to Richmond's 331. That's the number that decided Geelong Cats’ 133-76 win at GMHBA Stadium. With that kind of possession, the Cats dominated the play, keeping the ball out of Richmond's reach and dictating terms from the outset.

By quarter-time, Geelong had already established a 20-point lead, hitting the scoreboard with precision and keeping Richmond to just two goals. The inside 50 count of 66 to 48 demonstrated how often the Cats charged into their forward line. That forward pressure was clinical: 17 marks inside 50 versus Richmond's 14 made a big difference. It was all about capitalising on opportunities.

The half-time score of 78-29 was a testament to Geelong's midfield supremacy. Richmond had the edge in clearances, 44 to 33, but it wasn't enough. Geelong's midfield, rated at 1288 compared to Richmond’s 1067, showed up in the disposal count. They controlled the ball better and made more of it, evident in the efficiency moving into attack.

Richmond might have hoped for a ruck advantage, and on paper, they had it: 44 hit-outs to 33. But Geelong's defence was a fortress, bringing down 69 intercepts to Richmond's 55. Their ability to read the play and cut off the Tigers’ forward forays meant that even when Richmond got first use, they were often thwarted before they could do real damage.

By the final siren, the Cats had piled on another 32 points while Richmond managed to claw back 28. The Tigers never truly got within striking distance after the half. Geelong’s forward line, rated 1207 against Richmond’s 931, played up to its billing with the Cats averaging 111.6 points in their last five matches against Richmond’s 56.6. This match was no anomaly.

Despite Richmond's sporadic forward pushes, they couldn't break down Geelong's defensive organisation, which was rated marginally higher than their own defence. Geelong’s last-five form read WWWWW, whereas Richmond's patchy LLWLL suggested inconsistency. The final 209-point tally was off Alphr's predicted combined total of 170, but the model did nail the outcome: a 94% win probability for Geelong and a margin close to its predicted 66 points.

The Cats’ victory demonstrated the power of possession and the value of efficiency in front of goal. Wins and misses, all of it laid bare with the numbers. Richmond had their moments but lacked the polish and consistency needed to challenge a side like Geelong. For the Tigers, it’s back to the drawing board. The Cats, they keep marching on.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 40 | 38 | 23 | 32 | 133 |
| Richmond | 20 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 76 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **437** | Disposals | 331 |
| **133** | Contested poss. | 129 |
| 33 | Clearances | **44** |
| **66** | Inside 50s | 48 |
| **106** | Marks | 71 |
| **17** | Marks inside 50 | 14 |
| **58** | Tackles | 48 |
| 33 | Hit-outs | **44** |
| **69** | Intercepts | 55 |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 94% probability. The predicted margin of 66.0 was reasonable against the actual 57-point result. The game's 209 points came in 39 points higher than the predicted 170. Geelong Cats led 78–29 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 57. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.02 (edge -4.1%) — model probability 94.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -60.5 @ $1.90 (edge +5.5%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 184.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 66 · Predicted total: 170

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Geelong Cats here: 94% to see off Richmond. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Geelong Cats sit 679 ELO points clear, 1775 to 1096. Form leans Geelong Cats' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Richmond.

Geelong Cats own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Recent Form and Lineup Strength. The margin model has Geelong Cats by 66.0, with the two sides combining for about 170. Geelong Cats to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 111.6pts | Avg Score | 56.6pts |
| 80.8pts | Avg Conceded | 91.4pts |
| 30.8pts | Avg Margin | -34.8pts |
| 372.6 | Disposals | 337.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.8 | Tackles | 55.2 |
| 43.6 | Clearances | 36.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 W | 111.6 |
| Richmond | R19 L · R20 L · R21 W · R22 L · R23 L | 56.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 236 · 198 | 140 · 217 |
| Goal Assists | 5.6/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 96/g | 85/g |
| Inside 50s | 20/g | 15.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.7/g | 7.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.5% | 69.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 67 · 53 | 37 · 90 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 144/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 26.3/g | 18.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.2/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.6% | 70.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 23 · 15 | 21 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 134/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.7/g | 12.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.2% | 78.7% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.94/g (lg 3.89) +27% · Rucks 0.66/g (lg 0.52) +27% · Midfielders 3.01/g (lg 2.47) +22%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.99/g (lg 3.89) +3% · Forwards 4.33/g (lg 4.5) -4% · Midfielders 2.14/g (lg 2.47) -13%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GMHBA Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 43 in 22g | 21/10g (1·2·2·3·0·1·5·2·3·2) | 5/2g | 48/27g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 55' 97' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 40 in 21g | 20/10g (1·2·2·0·1·2·4·3·4·1) | 5/5g | 48/32g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' 52' |
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 39 in 16g | 19/10g (3·1·3·3·4·0·3·2·0·0) | 41/16g | 144/51g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 89% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 32 in 22g | 12/10g (1·0·0·0·4·1·1·1·1·3) | 3/2g | 26/23g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 2' 22' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 29 in 22g | 17/10g (1·2·0·2·3·2·0·2·4·1) | 4/4g | 34/32g | 74% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 22 in 17g | 13/10g (2·0·1·2·0·3·2·0·1·2) | 10/11g | 22/16g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 20 in 16g | 12/10g (1·1·1·1·0·5·0·1·0·2) | 12/16g | 86/77g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 31' 39' 81' |
| – | Jay Polkinghorne | KF | 11 in 5g | 11/5g (2·2·3·1·3) | 0/0g | 3/2g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 84% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' 69' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 10 in 15g | 7/10g (0·2·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 7/7g | 48/49g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 8 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 5/20g | 30% | — | 🏉 53' 73' 92' |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 6 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 15/67g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·0·0) | 8/10g | 45/59g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 5/22g | 18% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 4/59g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 4 in 22g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 13/61g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jhye Clark | DEF | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/12g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/26g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Edwards | RUC | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 7% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/19g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/42g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Bruhn | DEF | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 8/21g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 3/75g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 6/54g | 2% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 22 in 20g | 11/10g (0·1·0·2·1·1·2·0·2·2) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 68% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 17 in 22g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 3/3g | 1/2g | 40% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 17 in 14g | 13/10g (3·2·2·0·0·1·2·2·0·1) | 27/14g | 6/3g | 80% | — | 🏉 5' 63' 79' |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 14 in 19g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 42% | — | 🏉 82' 73' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 14 in 20g | 10/10g (2·0·4·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/8g | 2/4g | 50% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 6 in 18g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 34% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Kane McAuliffe | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/4g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Gray | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Retschko | MID | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Taj Hotton | FWD | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Judson Clarke | MID | 0 in 2g | 7/10g (1·1·1·2·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Kye Annand | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Samson Ryan | RUC | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/1g | 28% | — | 🏉 75' 77' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 33.5 | — | 59% | 40 ✗ |
| Tanner Bruhn | 24.5 | — | 75% | 29 ✗ |
| Thomas Stewart | 23.5 | — | — | — |
| Lawson Humphries | 21.5 | — | 65% | 22 ✗ |
| Ollie Dempsey | 21.5 | — | — | — |
| Gryan Miers | 20.5 | — | 68% | 25 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 18.5 | — | 47% | 15 ✓ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 18.5 | — | 57% | 33 ✗ |
| Jhye Clark | 18.5 | — | 76% | 22 ✗ |
| Tyler Sonsie | 17.5 | — | 68% | — |
| Zach Guthrie | 17.5 | — | 72% | 19 ✗ |
| Connor O'Sullivan | 15.5 | — | 49% | 14 ✓ |
| Jeremy Cameron | 15.5 | — | 60% | 22 ✗ |
| Mark Blicavs | 15.5 | — | 63% | — |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Ross | 24.5 | — | 70% | 32 ✗ |
| Tim Taranto | 23.5 | — | 40% | 36 ✗ |
| Patrick Retschko | 19.5 | — | 44% | 18 ✓ |
| Jayden Short | 19.5 | — | 50% | 18 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 18.5 | — | 66% | 13 ✓ |
| Sam Banks | 18.5 | — | 59% | 3 ✓ |
| Kane McAuliffe | 18.5 | — | 54% | 22 ✗ |
| Toby Nankervis | 17.5 | — | 61% | 24 ✗ |
| Seth Campbell | 16.5 | — | 67% | 22 ✗ |
| Tom Brown | 16.5 | — | 55% | 9 ✓ |
| Ben Miller | 15.5 | — | 62% | 5 ✓ |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | 15.5 | — | 61% | 16 ✗ |
| Taj Hotton | 14.5 | — | 68% | 19 ✗ |
| Sam Grlj | 14.5 | — | 66% | 15 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Geelong Cats 1775 · Richmond 1096 · ELO difference: 679 in favour of Geelong Cats

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Geelong Cats | Richmond | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1288 (best 1288) | 1067 (best 1133) | Geelong Cats +221 |
| Forwards | 1207 (best 1363) | 931 (best 1100) | Geelong Cats +276 |
| Defence | 1207 (best 1296) | 1168 (best 1278) | Geelong Cats +39 |
| Ruck | 1154 (best 1154) | 1100 (best 1199) | Geelong Cats +54 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 52.5% | Geelong Cats |
| 2 | Recent Form | 14.8% | Geelong Cats |
| 3 | Lineup Strength | 7.8% | Geelong Cats |
| 4 | Forward Line | 5.7% | Geelong Cats |
| 5 | Stat Profile | 5.7% | Richmond |
| 6 | Defence | 3.8% | Geelong Cats |
| 7 | Venue | 3.0% | Geelong Cats |

**Model Confidence: 94%** — Geelong Cats predicted to win by 66 points · Predicted total: 170 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r24-geelong-cats-v-richmond
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-22 12:33 UTC (latest tip update)