# Carlton v Fremantle — AFL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 119 – 82 Fremantle

_Carlton see off Fremantle._

Half time: 55 – 44 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 53% / Fremantle 47% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 22 Aug, 01:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Harry McKay (15' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ben Ainsworth (22' ×3), Francis Evans (25' ×5), Brodie Kemp (35' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Sam Walsh (38'), Jagga Smith (67'), Patrick Cripps (82'), Blake Acres (83') · Fremantle: Shai Bolton (5' 1st), Josh Treacy (11' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Voss (12' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Andrew Brayshaw (24'), Michael Frederick (61' Tipped ⚡), Luke Jackson (63' Tipped ⚡), Isaiah Dudley (76' Tipped ⚡), Tobyn Murray (92')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 53% | Won |
| Fremantle | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 37 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton vs Fremantle Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 24, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 Aug 2026, 06:41 pm · Last updated: 22 Aug 2026, 03:58 pm_

Carlton 119–82 Fremantle in AFL Round 24 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The numbers had Carlton as 53% favourites, and that held up. A 119-82 win at Marvel Stadium outstripped our margin prediction, which sat at a neat 2.3. Carlton led by 22 points at three-quarter time and extended it to a final 37-point win. The model got the victor right but understated Carlton's impact. The actual combined score of 201 points left our 170 total sounding almost conservative.

Carlton didn't just edge out a prediction, they turned it on, especially in the midfield. Winning 43 clearances against Fremantle's 30, they ran riot. This translated directly to raw possession, with Carlton racking up 414 disposals compared to Fremantle's 300. That's control, simple as. Fremantle's ruck division put in the effort, winning 39 hit-outs to Carlton's 22. But it was quantity without quality, as Carlton still enjoyed the lion’s share of clearances.

The midfield might've been a big part of it, but the Blues' defence held firm as well. They managed 58 intercepts against Fremantle's 61, a stat that reads balanced on paper, but in context shows how they thwarted many a Freo surge. This defensive solidity enabled them to press forward more often than their opponents, with 52 inside 50s compared to Fremantle's 42.

Carlton's forward efficiency deserves a nod, too. More than just getting the ball down there, they were sharp when it mattered. They managed 22 marks inside 50 while Fremantle only managed 15. It’s one thing to deliver the ball forward, but another to make those entries count. The Blues did just that, converting set plays into scoreboard pressure.

It wasn’t all one-way traffic, though. Fremantle’s pressure was evident with 52 tackles to Carlton’s 40. But while they brought the heat, they couldn't cool down a Blues side that seemed to have each move pre-planned. Even with a higher tackle count, Fremantle couldn't disrupt the marching band of Carlton’s midfield.

The match told a tale of what happens when expectation meets execution. Carlton's forward line ran amok, well supported by a midfield that didn't just compete but dominated. In contrast, Fremantle's efforts fell flat where it counted. The numbers saw a close contest, but on the grass, it was anything but. Credit to Carlton, they took the pre-match marginal call and turned it into a commanding victory.

Wins and misses, all of it. Our model might've seen a tight game coming in, but Carlton had other ideas. Their ability to hold the ball, win clearances and make their inside 50s count made all the difference. The proof was there by the final whistle. A comprehensive win, done and dusted.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 29 | 26 | 25 | 39 | 119 |
| Fremantle | 32 | 12 | 14 | 24 | 82 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| **414** | Disposals | 300 |
| **125** | Contested poss. | 104 |
| **43** | Clearances | 30 |
| **52** | Inside 50s | 42 |
| **127** | Marks | 71 |
| **22** | Marks inside 50 | 15 |
| 40 | Tackles | **52** |
| 22 | Hit-outs | **39** |
| 58 | Intercepts | **61** |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.3 but the actual margin was 37 points. The game's 201 points came in 31 points higher than the predicted 170. Carlton led 55–44 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 37. The model went 3/4 on this match. Carlton covered the 9.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $2.41 (edge +11.1%) — model probability 52.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 2 · Predicted total: 170

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Carlton and Fremantle. The model can't split them, landing on Carlton at 53%. The ratings say otherwise: Fremantle sit 185 ELO points clear, 1835 to 1651, so the model is backing Carlton against the ratings gap. Form leans Fremantle's way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Carlton.

Carlton own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Defence, Weather and Midfield. The margin model has Carlton by 2.3, with the two sides combining for about 170. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Carlton | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 104.2pts | Avg Score | 102.8pts |
| 81.8pts | Avg Conceded | 71.8pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Margin | 31.0pts |
| 397.0 | Disposals | 364.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 59.2 | Tackles | 56.4 |
| 38.4 | Clearances | 36.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 D | 104.2 |
| Fremantle | R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 W | 102.8 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 194 · 182 | 223 · 159 |
| Goal Assists | 4.1/g | 4.5/g |
| Disposals | 105/g | 89/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.9/g | 16.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.6/g | 11.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.5% | 71.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 65 · 74 | 92 · 47 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 5.2/g |
| Disposals | 146/g | 166/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.2/g | 28.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.1/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.5% | 73.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 19 | 4 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 138/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.1/g | 9.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 0.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77.4% | 84.2% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.2/g (lg 4.5) -7% · Midfielders 2.1/g (lg 2.47) -15% · Key Forwards 3.3/g (lg 3.89) -15%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.65/g (lg 0.52) +25% · Defenders 1.25/g (lg 1.05) +19% · Forwards 4.67/g (lg 4.5) +4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 34 in 22g | 13/10g (0·0·2·1·2·2·2·1·2·1) | 7/6g | 27/41g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 33 in 22g | 14/10g (2·1·0·2·0·1·0·5·2·1) | 4/4g | 21/24g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' 46' 68' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 30 in 20g | 16/10g (0·3·1·3·1·0·0·3·3·2) | 20/9g | 108/51g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' 70' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 23 in 22g | 11/10g (1·1·1·1·1·2·1·1·2·0) | 2/8g | 24/30g | 76% | — | 🏉 22' 75' 79' |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 17 in 20g | 12/10g (0·3·2·1·0·0·2·1·1·2) | 4/3g | 15/12g | 60% | — | 🏉 25' 29' 50' 78' 72' |
| – | Talor Byrne | FWD | 15 in 17g | 12/10g (2·0·3·0·1·0·3·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 9/6g | 56% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 13 in 18g | 10/10g (1·1·2·2·0·0·3·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 18/50g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 13 in 22g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 52/79g | 44% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 10 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 0/3g | 10/27g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 7 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/8g | 28% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 7 in 22g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 3/8g | 13/50g | 28% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Matthew Cottrell | FWD | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/8g | 13/29g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 8/36g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/7g | 30/76g | 32% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 4/10g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 7/34g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/12g | 11/33g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/24g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 4/66g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/21g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Wade Derksen | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 51 in 22g | 23/10g (4·2·0·3·4·3·1·3·2·1) | 8/5g | 12/9g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 81' 87' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 39 in 21g | 19/10g (4·2·2·2·2·1·1·1·4·0) | 3/1g | 4/3g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 70' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 27 in 22g | 11/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·2·3) | 2/2g | 2/2g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 23 in 22g | 14/10g (3·3·2·2·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 4/6g | 12/14g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 22 in 17g | 14/10g (2·0·4·0·2·3·1·0·0·2) | 5/8g | 17/14g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 61' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 20 in 21g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1·1) | 13/12g | 21/20g | 70% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 10 in 19g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·2) | 0/9g | 0/16g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (3·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/14g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 7 in 22g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/3g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 6 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/11g | 10/21g | 24% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 6 in 21g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 14/14g | 12/16g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/16g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/19g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 13/13g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 4/18g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Christopher Scerri | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/22g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/12g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tobyn Murray | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 92' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | 27.5 | — | 62% | 32 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps | 26.5 | — | 64% | 24 ✓ |
| George Hewett | 26.5 | — | 73% | 30 ✗ |
| Jagga Smith | 24.5 | — | 66% | 31 ✗ |
| Oliver Florent | 24.5 | — | 85% | 29 ✗ |
| Billy Wilson | 21.5 | — | 77% | 18 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra | 21.5 | — | 68% | 20 ✓ |
| Blake Acres | 20.5 | — | 51% | 17 ✓ |
| Matt Johnson | 19.5 | — | — | — |
| Cooper Lord | 18.5 | — | 52% | 21 ✗ |
| Ben Ainsworth | 16.5 | — | 66% | 20 ✗ |
| Francis Evans | 16.5 | — | 83% | 11 ✓ |
| Lachlan Cowan | 15.5 | — | 66% | 16 ✗ |
| Harry McKay | 14.5 | — | 79% | 7 ✓ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 25.5 | — | 58% | 21 ✓ |
| Caleb Serong | 25.5 | — | 64% | 23 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | 21.5 | — | 64% | 21 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton | 21.5 | — | 69% | 17 ✓ |
| Hayden Young | 20.5 | — | 76% | 23 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 19.5 | — | 54% | 15 ✓ |
| Karl Worner | 18.5 | — | 61% | 14 ✓ |
| Neil Erasmus | 17.5 | — | 60% | 15 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 17.5 | — | 58% | 14 ✓ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | 16.5 | — | 62% | 12 ✓ |
| Bailey Banfield | 14.5 | — | 69% | 14 ✓ |
| Judd McVee | 14.5 | — | 56% | 13 ✓ |
| Josh Treacy | 13.5 | — | 75% | 7 ✓ |
| Michael Frederick | 12.5 | — | 68% | 11 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Carlton 1651 · Fremantle 1835 · ELO difference: 185 in favour of Fremantle

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Carlton | Fremantle | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1282 (best 1376) | 1195 (best 1195) | Carlton +87 |
| Forwards | 1222 (best 1366) | 1131 (best 1351) | Carlton +90 |
| Defence | 1241 (best 1452) | 1138 (best 1243) | Carlton +103 |
| Ruck | 1257 (best 1257) | 1282 (best 1433) | Fremantle +25 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Form | 25.2% | Carlton |
| 2 | ELO Rating | 23.2% | Fremantle |
| 3 | Defence | 13.0% | Carlton |
| 4 | Stat Profile | 11.9% | Fremantle |
| 5 | Weather | 7.0% | Carlton |
| 6 | Midfield | 6.2% | Fremantle |
| 7 | Lineup Strength | 4.0% | Carlton |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Carlton predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 170 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-22 05:58 UTC (latest tip update)