# Adelaide Crows v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 157 – 101 GWS GIANTS

_Adelaide Crows run riot over GWS GIANTS._

Half time: 71 – 50 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 66% / GWS GIANTS 34% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 22 Aug, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Taylor Walker (5' ×6 1st Tipped 🎯), Izak Rankine (13' ×2), Ben Keays (25' ×3), Riley Thilthorpe (27' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Fogarty (46' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Isaac Cumming (52'), Lachlan McAndrew (74'), Josh Rachele (81' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (34m 40s)Izak Rankine (66'), Daniel Curtin (92') · GWS GIANTS: Jake Stringer (16' ×6 Tipped ⚡), Riley Hamilton (37'), Toby Greene (49' Tipped ⚡), Aaron Cadman (55' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Callum Brown (63'), Max Gruzewski (79' Tipped ⚡), Harry Rowston (86'), Nick Madden (85'), Xavier OHalloran (94')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 66% | Won |
| GWS GIANTS | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 18.2 predicted → 56 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs GWS GIANTS Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 24, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 Aug 2026, 06:41 pm · Last updated: 22 Aug 2026, 11:09 pm_

Adelaide Crows 157–101 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 24 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide Crows' focus on ball control and patience led to a decisive 157–101 win over the GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval. The Crows' strategy of maintaining possession and precise ball movement was evident in their 400 disposals compared to the Giants' 330. This approach allowed them to outplay the Giants, who aimed for quick ball movement but often fell short.

From the start, the difference in styles was clear. Adelaide's patience in possession helped them build a commanding 56–10 lead by the end of the first quarter. Despite the Giants' strong defensive ratings before the match, they struggled to disrupt the Crows' methodical play. GWS found themselves on the back foot, unable to make the most of the few chances they created.

The Crows' midfield dominance was crucial. They won the clearance battle 41 to 30, providing their forwards with quality delivery. Although the Giants had a higher-rated midfield coming into the game, Adelaide outperformed them in this area. Their control of the ball resulted in more inside 50s, with 64 entries compared to the Giants' 56.

Adelaide's forwards capitalised on their opportunities, taking 16 marks inside the attacking 50 compared to the Giants' 13. This efficiency was key to their strategy, ensuring they maximised scoring chances. The Giants, despite their defensive strengths, couldn't contain the Crows' forwards, who racked up 157 points.

GWS tried to stay competitive, particularly in the second quarter when they narrowed the gap to 21 points at half-time. However, Adelaide's relentless pressure and superior ball control widened the lead by the third term. A 110-75 advantage at three-quarter time left the Giants with too much to overcome in the final quarter. Adelaide continued to score, ending with a 56-point victory.

Defensively, the Crows excelled by intercepting the Giants' plays, recording 62 intercepts to GWS's 54. By cutting off the Giants' forward movements, the Crows effectively transitioned into attack.

The pre-match model predicted a 66% chance of an Adelaide win, with an expected margin of 18.2 points and a combined total of 168 points. The actual outcome was a 56-point win in a high-scoring game of 258 points, exceeding expectations. This result highlighted the unpredictability of AFL, keeping fans engaged.

While the model correctly anticipated the winner, the scale and nature of the Crows' victory were unexpected. This match showcased Adelaide's ability to dominate through a controlled yet ambitious style of play, leaving the Giants to reflect on their missed chances and tactical errors.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 56 | 15 | 39 | 47 | 157 |
| GWS GIANTS | 10 | 40 | 25 | 26 | 101 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| **400** | Disposals | 330 |
| **150** | Contested poss. | 106 |
| **41** | Clearances | 30 |
| **64** | Inside 50s | 56 |
| **89** | Marks | 64 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 13 |
| 45 | Tackles | **54** |
| **42** | Hit-outs | 36 |
| **62** | Intercepts | 54 |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 18.2 but the actual margin was 56 points. The game's 258 points came in 90 points higher than the predicted 168. Adelaide Crows led 71–50 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 56. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.25 (edge -13.7%) — model probability 66.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +25.5 @ $1.89 (edge +7.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 18 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Adelaide Crows here: 66% to see off GWS GIANTS. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Adelaide Crows sit 116 ELO points clear, 1633 to 1517. Form leans Adelaide Crows' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for GWS GIANTS.

Adelaide Crows own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Forward Line and Weather. The margin model has Adelaide Crows by 18.2, with the two sides combining for about 168. Adelaide Crows to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 91.4pts | Avg Score | 83.0pts |
| 83.6pts | Avg Conceded | 81.0pts |
| 7.8pts | Avg Margin | 2.0pts |
| 370.8 | Disposals | 365.6 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 70.6 | Tackles | 69.2 |
| 44.4 | Clearances | 36.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | R19 W · R20 L · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L | 91.4 |
| GWS GIANTS | R19 L · R20 L · R21 W · R22 L · R23 W | 83.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — GWS GIANTS lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R6 | Adelaide Crows | 52 – 34 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2024 | R16 | Adelaide Crows | 94 – 78 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2023 | R18 | Adelaide Crows | 57 – 71 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2023 | R1 | GWS GIANTS | 106 – 90 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2022 | R7 | Adelaide Crows | 54 – 113 | GWS GIANTS |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 202 · 177 | 233 · 197 |
| Goal Assists | 6.1/g | 5.4/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.4/g | 22.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.5/g | 9.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.9% | 65.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 84 · 56 | 45 · 61 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 138/g | 130/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.3/g | 20.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.6% | 70.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 16 | 7 · 22 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 141/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.4/g | 11/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.5% | 79.9% |

**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Defenders 1.15/g (lg 1.05) +10% · Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.52) +4% · Forwards 4.34/g (lg 4.5) -4%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.07/g (lg 1.05) +2% · Forwards 4.4/g (lg 4.5) -2% · Midfielders 2.19/g (lg 2.47) -11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 36 in 22g | 18/10g (4·3·1·1·3·1·1·2·0·2) | 6/4g | 78/52g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 81' 83' |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 31 in 19g | 17/10g (0·3·1·1·0·2·3·5·0·2) | 2/3g | 77/56g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' 32' 70' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 27 in 22g | 12/10g (1·1·1·3·2·0·1·3·0·0) | 6/8g | 82/88g | 68% | — | 🏉 25' 29' 93' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 27 in 13g | 23/10g (2·1·0·1·2·5·4·2·4·2) | 6/7g | 129/79g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' 77' 95' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 26 in 15g | 16/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·5·3·2·2) | 26/14g | 312/141g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 18' 20' 76' 85' 83' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 22 in 19g | 10/10g (3·2·0·1·2·0·1·0·1·0) | 5/11g | 44/66g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 19 in 19g | 9/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·3·1·1) | 5/6g | 76/47g | 80% | — | 🏉 13' 80' |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 13 in 20g | 7/10g (2·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 7/28g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 12 in 20g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 10/10g | 22/39g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 10 in 21g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/2g | 11/27g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 9 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 26/59g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 7 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 8/30g | 28% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/11g | 21% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/26g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/28g | 24% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 9/55g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 19/79g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Hall-Kahan | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/16g | 18/148g | 6% | — | — |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/17g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/43g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/35g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/51g | 4% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 42 in 22g | 18/10g (3·0·1·7·1·0·1·3·1·1) | 21/13g | 19/13g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 44' 61' 72' 95' 71' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 33 in 20g | 24/10g (5·3·2·3·2·3·0·2·2·2) | 25/15g | 26/17g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 31 in 17g | 17/10g (4·1·2·2·1·0·1·1·2·3) | 1/2g | 2/3g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' 87' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 21 in 17g | 15/10g (0·0·3·1·3·1·1·1·1·4) | 1/3g | 3/7g | 60% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | 19 in 14g | 15/10g (2·2·3·3·0·1·1·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 13 in 20g | 10/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·3·3·1·0) | 11/15g | 15/15g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 9 in 21g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/2g | 1/3g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 7 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 9/19g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Conor Stone | MID | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hamilton | FWD | 4 in 7g | 4/7g (0·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 29% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/5g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 13/11g | 13/16g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Josaia Delana | FWD | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/10g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/13g | 4/16g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nicholas Madden | RUC | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Toby McMullin | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Izak Rankine | 27.5 | — | 78% | 35 ✗ |
| Lachlan Ash | 27.5 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Dawson | 26.5 | — | 63% | 32 ✗ |
| Wayne Milera | 24.5 | — | 66% | 19 ✓ |
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | — | 48% | 23 ✓ |
| Sam Berry | 21.5 | — | 63% | 20 ✓ |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | 19.5 | — | 67% | 24 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell | 19.5 | — | 64% | 15 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo | 18.5 | — | 61% | 11 ✓ |
| Brayden Cook | 18.5 | — | 73% | 16 ✓ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | 17.5 | — | 69% | 16 ✓ |
| Daniel Curtin | 17.5 | — | 64% | 22 ✗ |
| Harrison Himmelberg | 17.5 | — | — | — |
| Joseph Fonti | 16.5 | — | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | 28.5 | — | 62% | 25 ✓ |
| Lachie Whitfield | 27.5 | — | 64% | 21 ✓ |
| Toby Greene | 20.5 | — | 70% | 17 ✓ |
| Xavier O'Halloran | 19.5 | — | 83% | 11 ✓ |
| Connor Idun | 19.5 | — | 58% | 20 ✗ |
| Harvey Thomas | 19.5 | — | 72% | 11 ✓ |
| Stephen Coniglio | 18.5 | — | 65% | 20 ✗ |
| Harry Rowston | 17.5 | — | 74% | 16 ✓ |
| Conor Stone | 15.5 | — | 76% | 11 ✓ |
| Toby McMullin | 15.5 | — | 96% | 13 ✓ |
| Ryan Angwin | 15.5 | — | 57% | 17 ✗ |
| Jake Stringer | 13.5 | — | 81% | 12 ✓ |
| Kieren Briggs | 12.5 | — | 55% | 11 ✓ |
| Sam Taylor | 12.5 | — | 64% | 3 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Adelaide Crows 1633 · GWS GIANTS 1517 · ELO difference: 116 in favour of Adelaide Crows

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Adelaide Crows | GWS GIANTS | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1099 (best 1163) | 1138 (best 1138) | GWS GIANTS +39 |
| Forwards | 1235 (best 1461) | 1165 (best 1431) | Adelaide Crows +69 |
| Defence | 1125 (best 1269) | 1444 (best 1565) | GWS GIANTS +319 |
| Ruck | 1257 (best 1257) | 1130 (best 1260) | Adelaide Crows +127 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 31.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 2 | Forward Line | 15.9% | GWS GIANTS |
| 3 | Defence | 10.7% | GWS GIANTS |
| 4 | Weather | 9.7% | Adelaide Crows |
| 5 | Stat Profile | 8.5% | GWS GIANTS |
| 6 | Lineup Strength | 5.8% | Adelaide Crows |
| 7 | Recent Form | 5.3% | Adelaide Crows |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 18 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r24-adelaide-crows-v-gws-giants
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-22 13:09 UTC (latest tip update)