# Richmond v St Kilda — AFL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 45 – 94 St Kilda

_St Kilda run riot over Richmond._

Half time: 23 – 48 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 22% / St Kilda 78% · MCG · Sat, 15 Aug, 12:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Jack Ross (20'), Mykelti Lefau (40' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tim Taranto (48'), Tom Lynch (64'), Sam Grlj (68') · St Kilda: Max Hall (5' 1st Tipped ⚡), Mitch Owens (19' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Cooper Sharman (34' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Marcus Windhager (45'), Dan Butler (78' ×2), Jack Higgins (62' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 78% | Won |
| Richmond | 22% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 33.5 predicted → 49 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond vs St Kilda Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 23, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Aug 2026, 07:50 pm · Last updated: 15 Aug 2026, 03:14 pm_

Richmond 45–94 St Kilda in AFL Round 23 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Kilda led from start to finish at the MCG, defeating Richmond 94–45. The Saints opened with a 10-point lead at quarter time and steadily widened the gap. By half-time, the margin had grown to 25 points. Richmond never looked like mounting a comeback.

The third quarter was decisive. St Kilda added 27 points to Richmond's 4, pushing their lead to a commanding 48 points by three-quarter time. From that point, Richmond was chasing shadows. With every goal, St Kilda made the task steeper for Richmond, who struggled to find answers.

St Kilda’s midfield dominance was clear, winning 45 clearances to Richmond’s 31. This set the tone for the Saints to control the play. Their 452 disposals compared to Richmond’s 335 demonstrated their grip. Their ball use was efficient, circulating it with 77.0% disposal efficiency, while Richmond managed only 71.9%.

The Saints also led in inside 50s, making 60 entries compared to Richmond’s 47. This was a direct result of their controlled play, facilitated by clear dominance in midfield. Despite each team pulling in 11 marks inside 50, St Kilda was the more threatening outfit in front of goal.

Defensively, St Kilda’s pressure was relentless. They laid 88 tackles to Richmond’s 60, stifling the Tigers’ attempts to claw back into the contest. St Kilda’s increased pressure and ability to maintain possession saw them steadily pile on the points. Richmond found it hard to clear their lines and create scoring opportunities.

Richmond’s season-long defensive strength, indicated by their pre-match rating of 1166, was unable to stifle the St Kilda attack, which came in with a forward line rated at 1107. Despite Richmond's better ruck rating, hitting 42 to St Kilda's 43, it translated to little impact on the overall flow of the game.

The model had Richmond at 1118 and St Kilda at 1432 pre-match, favouring the Saints with a 33.5-point predicted margin. The Saints took it by 49. Richmond’s recent form was poor, with only one win from their last five games, mirroring their struggles on the day. St Kilda’s two wins in their last five hinted at a stronger outing, and they delivered.

While our model called the winner correctly with a 78% probability, it underestimated the margin by 15.5 points. The match total also missed our predicted 167 points, falling short at 139. But when it comes to pressure and control, St Kilda had Richmond’s measure from start to end.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 10 | 13 | 4 | 18 | 45 |
| St Kilda | 20 | 28 | 27 | 19 | 94 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 335 | Disposals | **452** |
| 111 | Contested poss. | **155** |
| 31 | Clearances | **45** |
| 47 | Inside 50s | **60** |
| 89 | Marks | **121** |
| 11 | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| 60 | Tackles | **88** |
| 42 | Hit-outs | **43** |
| **68** | Intercepts | 64 |
| 71.9% | Disposal eff. | **77.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 78% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 33.5 but the actual margin was 49 points. The game's 139 points came in 28 points lower than the predicted 167. St Kilda led 23–48 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 49. The model went 3/4 on this match. St Kilda covered the 21.5-point line. The under 167.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.30 (edge +1.2%) — model probability 78.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda -21.5 @ $1.89 (edge +12.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 167.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 34 · Predicted total: 167

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Kilda here: 78% to see off Richmond. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Kilda sit 314 ELO points clear, 1432 to 1118. Form leans St Kilda's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Richmond.

St Kilda own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Recent Form and Lineup Strength. The margin model has St Kilda by 33.5, with the two sides combining for about 167. St Kilda to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Richmond | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 60.6pts | Avg Score | 81.0pts |
| 94.8pts | Avg Conceded | 90.0pts |
| -34.2pts | Avg Margin | -9.0pts |
| 337.6 | Disposals | 417.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 55.8 | Tackles | 61.2 |
| 37.0 | Clearances | 36.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 W · R22 L | 60.6 |
| St Kilda | R18 W · R19 L · R20 W · R21 L · R22 L | 81.0 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 137 · 206 | 171 · 191 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 4.6/g |
| Disposals | 85/g | 104/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.4/g | 18/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.1/g | 8.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.3% | 68.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 35 · 87 | 67 · 57 |
| Goal Assists | 2.1/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 152/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.8/g | 22.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.8% | 71.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 20 · 15 | 28 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 133/g | 130/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.2/g | 10.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.5% | 80.2% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.61/g (lg 2.47) +6% · Key Forwards 4.07/g (lg 3.87) +5% · Forwards 4.21/g (lg 4.5) -6%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Rucks 0.66/g (lg 0.52) +27% · Key Forwards 4.91/g (lg 3.87) +27% · Midfielders 3.03/g (lg 2.47) +23%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 20 in 19g | 10/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·1·2·0·2) | 1/1g | 17/18g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 40' 86' |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 17 in 21g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·3) | 3/5g | 26/36g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 16 in 13g | 13/10g (1·3·2·2·0·0·1·2·2·0) | 30/15g | 165/78g | 80% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 14 in 18g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 15/24g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 13 in 11g | 11/10g (1·0·2·1·1·1·1·1·3·0) | 0/1g | 19/13g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.37 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 13 in 19g | 9/10g (0·2·0·4·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 7/14g | 37/61g | 46% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 3/3g | 16/40g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 9/59g | 20% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/17g | 21/113g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 3/15g | 29/100g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/18g | 32/97g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Armstrong | KF | 1 in 3g | 7/10g (2·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 4/6g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.73 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/18g | 17/151g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Retschko | MID | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/35g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 7% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Taj Hotton | FWD | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/10g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 8/33g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 7/51g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Judson Clarke | MID | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 9/12g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Kye Annand | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/16g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/105g | 0% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 28 in 15g | 21/10g (4·5·1·1·2·2·1·2·2·1) | 16/10g | 47/35g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 24 in 19g | 13/10g (2·0·0·2·4·1·1·3·0·0) | 9/7g | 9/8g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 34' 84' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 24 in 21g | 10/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·3·2) | 5/3g | 7/4g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 22 in 18g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·2) | 7/5g | 7/8g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' 22' 37' 76' 90' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 16 in 20g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 2/6g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 12 in 19g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·1·2·0·1) | 13/13g | 6/16g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 11 in 18g | 8/10g (0·2·0·2·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 16/38g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 10 in 19g | 5/10g (2·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 3/8g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 9 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/20g | 44/66g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 9 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/3g | 1/4g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 5 in 21g | 4/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/11g | 34/55g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Lake | FWD | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (0·0·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Dan Butler | FWD | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 12/9g | 43/35g | 44% | — | 🏉 78' 78' |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/11g | 10% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/7g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Angus Hastie | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 6/27g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/19g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Macrae | 27.5 | — | — | — |
| Jack Ross | 24.5 | $1.93 | 55% | 16 ✓ |
| Tim Taranto | 23.5 | $1.82 | 35% | 21 ✓ |
| Jayden Short | 20.5 | $1.88 | 47% | 18 ✓ |
| Dion Prestia | 20.5 | $1.89 | 58% | 27 ✗ |
| Patrick Retschko | 19.5 | — | 49% | 23 ✗ |
| Sam Banks | 18.5 | — | 54% | 17 ✓ |
| Tom Brown | 18.5 | — | 72% | 13 ✓ |
| Ben Miller | 17.5 | — | 70% | 15 ✓ |
| Nathan Broad | 16.5 | — | 66% | 16 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 16.5 | — | 52% | 18 ✗ |
| Sam Lalor | 16.5 | — | 72% | 9 ✓ |
| Toby Nankervis | 15.5 | — | 41% | 20 ✗ |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | 15.5 | — | 50% | 15 ✓ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Hill | 28.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 41 ✗ |
| Max Hall ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 40 ✗ |
| Hugo Garcia | 23.5 | $1.90 | 48% | 30 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilson | 23.5 | $1.82 | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Mattaes Phillipou | 23.5 | — | 79% | 14 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager | 23.5 | — | 53% | 24 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie | 21.5 | — | 52% | 21 ✓ |
| Liam Stocker | 19.5 | — | 77% | 20 ✗ |
| Rowan Marshall | 19.5 | — | 49% | 20 ✗ |
| Ryan Byrnes | 17.5 | — | 48% | 16 ✓ |
| Hugh Boxshall | 15.5 | — | 46% | 21 ✗ |
| Tom De Koning | 15.5 | — | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Jack Silvagni | 15.5 | — | 52% | 20 ✗ |
| Liam O'Connell | 13.5 | — | 65% | 11 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Richmond 1118 · St Kilda 1432 · ELO difference: 314 in favour of St Kilda

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Richmond | St Kilda | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1116 (best 1167) | 1160 (best 1160) | St Kilda +44 |
| Forwards | 981 (best 1171) | 1107 (best 1397) | St Kilda +126 |
| Defence | 1166 (best 1329) | 1105 (best 1221) | Richmond +61 |
| Ruck | 1242 (best 1242) | 1000 (best 1000) | Richmond +242 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 43.7% | St Kilda |
| 2 | Recent Form | 15.9% | St Kilda |
| 3 | Lineup Strength | 12.3% | St Kilda |
| 4 | Stat Profile | 9.3% | St Kilda |
| 5 | Forward Line | 4.8% | Richmond |
| 6 | Weather | 4.7% | Richmond |
| 7 | Defence | 2.6% | Richmond |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — St Kilda predicted to win by 33 points · Predicted total: 167 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r23-richmond-v-st-kilda
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-15 05:14 UTC (latest tip update)