# Richmond v St Kilda — AFL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Richmond v St Kilda?

Alphr's AFL model makes St Kilda a clear 78% favourite over Richmond in Round 23. Predicted result: St Kilda by 34 in a low-scoring game (167 total, under the 167.5 line). **Confidence: High.** St Kilda lead on ELO Rating, Recent Form and Lineup Strength. The edge is on the St Kilda line at +12.0%.

_Alphr AFL Model v1.0 · 81.9% head-to-head accuracy across 216 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Richmond v St Kilda
Sat, 15 Aug, 12:35 pm AEST · MCG · Round 23

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.30 (edge +1.2%) — model probability 78.1%
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda -21.5 @ $1.89 (edge +12.0%)
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 167.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%)
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 34 · Predicted total: 167

### Match Overview

The model is firm on St Kilda here: 78% to see off Richmond. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Kilda sit 314 ELO points clear, 1432 to 1118. Form leans St Kilda's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Richmond.

St Kilda own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Recent Form and Lineup Strength. The margin model has St Kilda by 33.5, with the two sides combining for about 167. St Kilda to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Richmond | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 60.6pts | Avg Score | 81.0pts |
| 94.8pts | Avg Conceded | 90.0pts |
| -34.2pts | Avg Margin | -9.0pts |
| 337.6 | Disposals | 417.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 55.8 | Tackles | 61.2 |
| 37.0 | Clearances | 36.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 W · R22 L | 60.6 |
| St Kilda | R18 W · R19 L · R20 W · R21 L · R22 L | 81.0 |

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring St Kilda win, around 100–67 (total ~167 — under the 167.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 167.5 line (model projects 167).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-13 09:50 UTC (latest tip update)