# GWS GIANTS v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 111 – 57 West Coast Eagles

_GWS GIANTS run riot over West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 70 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 79% / West Coast Eagles 21% · ENGIE Stadium · Sun, 16 Aug, 01:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Aaron Cadman (22' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Max Gruzewski (26' Tipped ⚡), Toby Greene (33' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Callum Brown (42' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Cody Angove (57'), Harvey Thomas (63'), Riley Hamilton (84'), Jake Stringer (73' Tipped ⚡) · West Coast Eagles: Jake Waterman (4' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Liam Baker (6' ×2), Milan Murdock (12'), Tom Cole (17'), Brady Hough (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 79% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 22.4 predicted → 54 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 23 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Aug 2026, 07:50 pm · Last updated: 16 Aug 2026, 04:32 pm_

GWS GIANTS 111–57 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 23 at ENGIE Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

GWS GIANTS dominated West Coast Eagles at ENGIE Stadium, winning 111-57. The GIANTS applied scoreboard pressure early, turning a narrow 32-31 lead at quarter time into a commanding 70-36 advantage by half-time. By the end of the third quarter, GWS led 87-40, putting the result beyond doubt.

The GIANTS' victory was built on their disposal dominance, outshining West Coast 379 to 321. They translated these disposals into effective forward movements, marking 19 times inside the forward 50 compared to West Coast's 13. This precision in front of goal highlighted their superior forward line execution.

Despite West Coast's midfield having a higher positional strength rating of 1259 to GWS's 1103, the GIANTS overwhelmed them with numbers and intent. The Eagles edged the clearances 38 to 35, but it didn't impact the scoreboard. GWS consistently turned turnovers into opportunities, with 56 intercepts compared to West Coast's 51, showcasing their defensive strength and offensive transition play.

In the ruck, West Coast had a slight edge in hit-outs, 44 to 41, but it didn't shift the game's balance. GWS's ability to capitalise on general play compensated for this minor shortfall. Both teams had a disposal efficiency of 76.3%, but GWS found more space and time with the ball, breaking open the Eagles' defence.

Coming into the match, GWS were in slightly better form, having won two of their last five games, compared to West Coast's winless streak. The GIANTS' average points conceded (84.2) showed a defence that held solid in this match. Meanwhile, the Eagles continued their pattern of conceding an average of 98.4 points.

The model predicted a GWS win with a 79% probability but underestimated their dominance. It forecasted a 22.4-point margin, far short of the 54-point reality. However, the model's anticipated combined score of 168 was spot on, a small consolation amidst GWS's comprehensive victory.

GWS made every touch count, building and protecting their lead through cohesive team strategy and precision. West Coast, still searching for form, were left trailing and now face the challenge of regrouping after another tough outing.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 32 | 38 | 17 | 24 | 111 |
| West Coast Eagles | 31 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 57 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **379** | Disposals | 321 |
| **124** | Contested poss. | 120 |
| 35 | Clearances | **38** |
| 53 | Inside 50s | 53 |
| **111** | Marks | 82 |
| **19** | Marks inside 50 | 13 |
| **60** | Tackles | 55 |
| 41 | Hit-outs | **44** |
| **56** | Intercepts | 51 |
| 76.3% | Disposal eff. | **76.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 79% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 22.4 but the actual margin was 54 points. Total score prediction of 168 was close to the actual 168, within 0 points. GWS GIANTS led 70–36 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 54. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 169.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.15 (edge -7.5%) — model probability 79.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +32.5 @ $1.89 (edge +10.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 169.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 22 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on GWS GIANTS here: 79% to see off West Coast Eagles. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: GWS GIANTS sit 396 ELO points clear, 1506 to 1110. Form leans GWS GIANTS's way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for West Coast Eagles.

GWS GIANTS own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Lineup Strength and Recent Form. The margin model has GWS GIANTS by 22.4, with the two sides combining for about 168. GWS GIANTS to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 78.0pts | Avg Score | 70.4pts |
| 84.2pts | Avg Conceded | 98.4pts |
| -6.2pts | Avg Margin | -28.0pts |
| 376.4 | Disposals | 337.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 63.8 | Tackles | 65.0 |
| 35.8 | Clearances | 36.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | R18 W · R19 L · R20 L · R21 W · R22 L | 78.0 |
| West Coast Eagles | R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L | 70.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — GWS GIANTS lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | West Coast Eagles | 88 – 71 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2025 | R17 | West Coast Eagles | 52 – 111 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2025 | R4 | GWS GIANTS | 132 – 51 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2024 | R2 | West Coast Eagles | 43 – 108 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2023 | R2 | West Coast Eagles | 100 – 81 | GWS GIANTS |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 219 · 193 | 128 · 209 |
| Goal Assists | 5.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 75/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.1/g | 12.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.7/g | 7.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65% | 69.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 43 · 61 | 60 · 74 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 130/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.4/g | 23/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.3% | 67.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 19 | 15 · 24 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 140/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.1/g | 12/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.6% | 80.7% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Midfielders 3.42/g (lg 2.48) +38% · Rucks 0.7/g (lg 0.52) +35% · Forwards 5.33/g (lg 4.47) +19%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Defenders 1.13/g (lg 1.06) +7% · Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.52) +4% · Forwards 4.34/g (lg 4.47) -3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at ENGIE Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 41 in 21g | 18/10g (1·3·0·1·7·1·0·1·3·1) | 32/18g | 30/19g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 31 in 19g | 22/10g (0·5·3·2·3·2·3·0·2·2) | 25/15g | 158/93g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' 55' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 28 in 16g | 15/10g (1·4·1·2·2·1·0·1·1·2) | 6/4g | 33/25g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' 24' 91' |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | 18 in 13g | 15/10g (1·2·2·3·3·0·1·1·0·2) | 2/2g | 16/8g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 17 in 16g | 14/10g (3·0·0·3·1·3·1·1·1·1) | 1/3g | 37/25g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' 51' 79' 89' |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 13 in 19g | 10/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·3·3·1) | 3/15g | 39/84g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 7 in 20g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 8/20g | 34% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 7 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 0/2g | 3/17g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/8g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/13g | 3/10g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Conor Stone | MID | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 3/10g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 62/70g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/16g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 9/31g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hamilton | FWD | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 17% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Josaia Delana | FWD | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/43g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/15g | 30/96g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Cody Angove | FWD | no games | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 25% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/43g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nicholas Madden | RUC | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/44g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Toby McMullin | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/12g | 18% | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 46 in 21g | 24/10g (3·3·3·0·3·1·5·1·2·3) | 14/6g | 6/3g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 79' |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 29 in 21g | 17/10g (1·1·3·1·3·2·3·0·1·2) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 78% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 14 in 21g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 14 in 20g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 63% | — | — |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 13 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 0/4g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 8 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 1/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·2·2) | 2/3g | 2/1g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 8 in 15g | 7/10g (0·2·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 28% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 6 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 0/4g | 20% | — | 🏉 6' 31' |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 5 in 21g | 4/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 20% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Milan Murdock | FWD | 5 in 7g | 5/7g (1·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 71% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Cooper Duff-Tytler | KF | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 2/5g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/10g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Gross | FWD | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lindsay | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/14g | 2/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Herbert | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | 28.5 | $1.98 | 53% | 29 ✗ |
| Lachlan Ash | 26.5 | $1.85 | — | — |
| Lachie Whitfield | 25.5 | $1.95 | 49% | 33 ✗ |
| Xavier O'Halloran | 21.5 | — | 88% | — |
| Toby Greene | 20.5 | — | 64% | 16 ✓ |
| Harvey Thomas | 19.5 | — | 67% | 20 ✗ |
| Connor Idun | 18.5 | — | 41% | 24 ✗ |
| Harry Rowston | 18.5 | — | 82% | 15 ✓ |
| Stephen Coniglio | 18.5 | — | 58% | 22 ✗ |
| Ryan Angwin | 17.5 | — | 63% | 13 ✓ |
| Harrison Himmelberg | 17.5 | — | — | — |
| Joseph Fonti | 16.5 | — | — | — |
| Jack Ough | 16.5 | — | 98% | — |
| Toby Bedford | 15.5 | — | 70% | — |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | 24.5 | $1.83 | 60% | 25 ✗ |
| Tim Kelly | 23.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 28 ✗ |
| Marcus Herbert ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.79 | 79% | 14 ✓ |
| Tom McCarthy | 22.5 | $1.75 | 60% | 22 ✓ |
| Elliot Yeo | 20.5 | — | 86% | 18 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 18.5 | — | 63% | 13 ✓ |
| Liam Baker | 17.5 | — | 50% | 12 ✓ |
| Willem Duursma | 17.5 | — | 56% | 6 ✓ |
| Jack Graham | 17.5 | — | 66% | 26 ✗ |
| Josh Lindsay | 17.5 | — | 54% | 12 ✓ |
| Brady Hough | 16.5 | — | 81% | 8 ✓ |
| Milan Murdock | 16.5 | — | 80% | 13 ✓ |
| Bailey J. Williams | 16.5 | — | 86% | 11 ✓ |
| Brandon Starcevich | 14.5 | — | 81% | 13 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — GWS GIANTS 1506 · West Coast Eagles 1110 · ELO difference: 396 in favour of GWS GIANTS

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | GWS GIANTS | West Coast Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1103 (best 1103) | 1259 (best 1259) | West Coast Eagles +156 |
| Forwards | 1005 (best 1358) | 1118 (best 1342) | West Coast Eagles +113 |
| Defence | 1223 (best 1332) | 1188 (best 1370) | GWS GIANTS +35 |
| Ruck | 1073 (best 1147) | 1169 (best 1337) | West Coast Eagles +95 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 52.4% | GWS GIANTS |
| 2 | Lineup Strength | 10.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 3 | Recent Form | 8.7% | GWS GIANTS |
| 4 | Forward Line | 7.4% | West Coast Eagles |
| 5 | Weather | 5.7% | GWS GIANTS |
| 6 | Stat Profile | 4.5% | West Coast Eagles |
| 7 | Midfield | 3.4% | West Coast Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 22 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-16 06:32 UTC (latest tip update)