# Fremantle v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Fremantle v Adelaide Crows?

Alphr's AFL model makes Fremantle a clear 74% favourite over Adelaide Crows in Round 23. Predicted result: Fremantle by 22 in a low-scoring game (168 total, under the 171.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Fremantle lead on ELO Rating, Lineup Strength and Stat Profile. The edge is on the Fremantle line at +3.9%.

_Alphr AFL Model v1.0 · 81.9% head-to-head accuracy across 216 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Fremantle v Adelaide Crows
Fri, 14 Aug, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 23

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.36 (edge +0.0%) — model probability 73.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -18.5 @ $1.90 (edge +3.9%)
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%)
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 22 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Overview

The model is firm on Fremantle here: 74% to see off Adelaide Crows. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Fremantle sit 157 ELO points clear, 1813 to 1656.

Fremantle own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Lineup Strength and Stat Profile. The margin model has Fremantle by 22.4, with the two sides combining for about 168. Fremantle to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Fremantle | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 102.6pts | Avg Score | 99.4pts |
| 68.8pts | Avg Conceded | 71.0pts |
| 33.8pts | Avg Margin | 28.4pts |
| 367.2 | Disposals | 373.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 58.4 | Tackles | 72.0 |
| 33.8 | Clearances | 44.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L | 102.6 |
| Adelaide Crows | R18 W · R19 W · R20 L · R21 W · R22 W | 99.4 |

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Fremantle win, around 95–73 (total ~168 — under the 171.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 171.5 line (model projects 168).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r23-fremantle-v-adelaide-crows
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-13 09:50 UTC (latest tip update)