# Fremantle v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 112 – 88 Adelaide Crows

_Fremantle see off Adelaide Crows._

Half time: 47 – 42 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 74% / Adelaide Crows 26% · Optus Stadium · Fri, 14 Aug, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Isaiah Dudley (7' ×3), Jye Amiss (20' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Caleb Serong (29' ×2), Michael Frederick (58' ×2), Josh Treacy (76' Tipped ⚡), Andrew Brayshaw (93'), Mason Cox (89'), Shai Bolton (95') · Adelaide Crows: Darcy Fogarty (5' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Callum Ah Chee (11'), Josh Rachele (37' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Zac Taylor (63' ×2), Brayden Cook (69' ×2), Riley Thilthorpe (79' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Izak Rankine (93')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 74% | Won |
| Adelaide Crows | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 22.4 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 23 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Aug 2026, 07:50 pm · Last updated: 14 Aug 2026, 10:59 pm_

Fremantle 112–88 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 23 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle defeated the Adelaide Crows 112–88 at Optus Stadium. The final score suggests a comfortable win, but the game was tight until the last quarter. At three-quarter time, Fremantle led by just seven points, 76-69, leaving the door open for an Adelaide comeback. However, Fremantle found their stride in the final term.

The Dockers' ruck division was a key factor, winning 54 hit-outs to Adelaide's 39. This advantage gave Fremantle's midfield more opportunities, reflected in their 44-38 edge in clearances. When Fremantle's midfield was on song, Adelaide struggled to keep pace.

In terms of disposals, Fremantle had 353 to Adelaide's 320. More importantly, Fremantle's disposal efficiency was superior at 77%, compared to Adelaide's 68.1%. This accuracy allowed Fremantle to make the most of their possessions.

Fremantle's forward pressure was relentless, with 60 inside 50s compared to Adelaide's 46. It wasn't just about quantity; Fremantle also excelled in quality. They took 13 marks inside 50, while Adelaide managed only six. When Fremantle got the ball forward, they made it count.

Defensively, both teams were evenly matched in intercepts, with Fremantle at 69 and Adelaide at 68. However, Fremantle's defensive setup, rated higher at 1156, effectively contained Adelaide's forwards, who were rated 1186. Fremantle's defence held firm during crucial moments, preventing Adelaide from capitalising on their opportunities.

Fremantle's pressure game was another standout. They recorded 72 tackles to Adelaide's 58, demonstrating their commitment to maintaining pressure and denying Adelaide easy possessions. This intensity wore Adelaide down as the match progressed.

Before the match, Alphr's model had Fremantle as favourites with a 74% win probability and predicted a 22.4-point margin. The actual 24-point margin was close to this prediction, highlighting Fremantle's late surge. The model also anticipated a lower combined score, missing the 200-point total by 32. Both teams exceeded expectations, particularly in a high-scoring final quarter where Fremantle outperformed Adelaide.

In summary, Fremantle's midfield dominance and pressure were decisive. Adelaide showed resilience and had moments of brilliance but ultimately fell short. They need to refine their play to capitalise on close games. Fremantle, on the other hand, will look to build on this momentum.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 34 | 13 | 29 | 36 | 112 |
| Adelaide Crows | 21 | 21 | 27 | 19 | 88 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| **353** | Disposals | 320 |
| 134 | Contested poss. | **135** |
| **44** | Clearances | 38 |
| **60** | Inside 50s | 46 |
| 75 | Marks | 75 |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| **72** | Tackles | 58 |
| **54** | Hit-outs | 39 |
| **69** | Intercepts | 68 |
| **77.0%** | Disposal eff. | 68.1% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 74% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Fremantle by 22.4 vs the actual margin of 24 points. The game's 200 points came in 32 points higher than the predicted 168. Fremantle led 47–42 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 3/4 on this match. Fremantle covered the 18.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.36 (edge +0.0%) — model probability 73.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -18.5 @ $1.90 (edge +3.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 22 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Fremantle here: 74% to see off Adelaide Crows. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Fremantle sit 157 ELO points clear, 1813 to 1656.

Fremantle own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Lineup Strength and Stat Profile. The margin model has Fremantle by 22.4, with the two sides combining for about 168. Fremantle to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Fremantle | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 102.6pts | Avg Score | 99.4pts |
| 68.8pts | Avg Conceded | 71.0pts |
| 33.8pts | Avg Margin | 28.4pts |
| 367.2 | Disposals | 373.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 58.4 | Tackles | 72.0 |
| 33.8 | Clearances | 44.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L | 102.6 |
| Adelaide Crows | R18 W · R19 W · R20 L · R21 W · R22 W | 99.4 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 212 · 152 | 193 · 166 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 6.1/g |
| Disposals | 90/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.4/g | 19.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.2/g | 8.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.2% | 68% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 87 · 44 | 81 · 51 |
| Goal Assists | 5.1/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 165/g | 138/g |
| Inside 50s | 28/g | 23.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.3% | 70.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 11 | 11 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.4/g | 9.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.1/g | 0.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 84.4% | 81.6% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.09/g (lg 1.06) +3% · Forwards 4.36/g (lg 4.48) -3% · Midfielders 2.19/g (lg 2.48) -12%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.18/g (lg 4.48) -7% · Key Forwards 3.32/g (lg 3.87) -14% · Midfielders 2.1/g (lg 2.48) -15%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 53 in 21g | 27/10g (4·2·3·1·1·2·4·5·0·5) | 9/4g | 86/50g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 22' 24' 72' 81' |
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 50 in 21g | 25/10g (3·4·2·0·3·4·3·1·3·2) | 6/5g | 91/54g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 39 in 20g | 23/10g (4·4·2·2·2·2·1·1·1·4) | 2/1g | 39/27g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 24 in 21g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·2) | 1/2g | 22/21g | 77% | — | 🏉 7' 52' 82' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 23 in 21g | 15/10g (1·3·3·2·2·0·1·1·2·0) | 5/6g | 50/53g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.53 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 20 in 16g | 12/10g (0·2·0·4·0·2·3·1·0·0) | 5/4g | 78/66g | 60% | — | 🏉 58' 73' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 19 in 20g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 5/7g | 44/34g | 70% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 12 in 21g | 6/10g (1·3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/6g | 42/65g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 8 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/7g | 30/77g | 26% | — | 🏉 29' 92' |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (0·3·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 15/50g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 7 in 21g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/35g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 8/41g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 5 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 34/100g | 22% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 12/29g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 14/16g | 24% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 10/64g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/49g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/72g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 21/76g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Christopher Scerri | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/30g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/101g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/14g | 12% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 34 in 21g | 16/10g (0·4·3·1·1·3·1·1·2·0) | 10/5g | 5/4g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.37 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' 57' |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 29 in 18g | 16/10g (1·0·3·1·1·0·2·3·5·0) | 6/4g | 8/4g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' 69' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 27 in 21g | 14/10g (2·1·1·1·3·2·0·1·3·0) | 1/8g | 6/7g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.65 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 25 in 12g | 21/10g (0·2·1·0·1·2·5·4·2·4) | 3/4g | 16/8g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 84' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 22 in 18g | 13/10g (3·3·2·0·1·2·0·1·0·1) | 4/8g | 4/9g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 18 in 18g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·3·1) | 6/6g | 9/8g | 80% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 11 in 19g | 6/10g (1·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/3g | 32% | — | 🏉 63' 70' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 9 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 6/6g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Toby Murray | RUC | 9 in 12g | 9/10g (2·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 8 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 34% | — | 🏉 69' 88' |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 7 in 6g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·2·2) | 7/9g | 4/6g | 62% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 7 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/6g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 25% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 4 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/7g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Hall-Kahan | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 3/8g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 24.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 27 ✗ |
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.94 | 63% | 29 ✗ |
| Matt Johnson | 20.5 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Clark | 20.5 | $1.85 | 60% | 25 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton | 20.5 | — | 64% | 27 ✗ |
| Luke Jackson | 19.5 | — | 75% | 20 ✗ |
| Hayden Young | 19.5 | — | 72% | 23 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 19.5 | — | 53% | 19 ✓ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | 18.5 | — | 72% | 9 ✓ |
| Karl Worner | 18.5 | — | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Neil Erasmus | 18.5 | — | 71% | 20 ✗ |
| Oscar McDonald | 15.5 | — | 83% | 13 ✓ |
| Heath Chapman | 14.5 | — | 68% | 16 ✗ |
| Sam Switkowski | 14.5 | — | 69% | 13 ✓ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 73% | 39 ✗ |
| Jordan Dawson | 23.5 | $1.98 | 54% | 27 ✗ |
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | — | 51% | 22 ✓ |
| Sam Berry | 21.5 | $1.80 | 63% | 11 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 75% | 9 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 20.5 | — | 70% | 13 ✓ |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | 19.5 | — | 73% | 20 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo | 18.5 | — | 67% | 19 ✗ |
| Brayden Cook | 17.5 | — | 73% | 15 ✓ |
| Daniel Curtin | 17.5 | — | 65% | 16 ✓ |
| Isaac Cumming | 17.5 | — | 77% | 9 ✓ |
| Josh Rachele | 16.5 | — | 82% | 9 ✓ |
| Luke Nankervis | 16.5 | — | 63% | 10 ✓ |
| Mark Keane | 16.5 | — | 71% | 18 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Fremantle 1813 · Adelaide Crows 1656 · ELO difference: 157 in favour of Fremantle

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Fremantle | Adelaide Crows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1206 (best 1206) | 1105 (best 1218) | Fremantle +101 |
| Forwards | 1135 (best 1323) | 1186 (best 1360) | Adelaide Crows +51 |
| Defence | 1156 (best 1211) | 1145 (best 1245) | Fremantle +10 |
| Ruck | 1167 (best 1335) | 1224 (best 1224) | Adelaide Crows +56 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 29.7% | Fremantle |
| 2 | Lineup Strength | 15.5% | Fremantle |
| 3 | Stat Profile | 14.0% | Fremantle |
| 4 | Weather | 13.6% | Fremantle |
| 5 | Defence | 6.7% | — |
| 6 | Midfield | 5.9% | Fremantle |
| 7 | Recent Form | 4.3% | Fremantle |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Fremantle predicted to win by 22 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-14 12:59 UTC (latest tip update)