# Essendon v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Essendon v Sydney Swans?

Alphr's AFL model makes Sydney Swans a clear 92% favourite over Essendon in Round 23. Predicted result: Sydney Swans by 54 in a low-scoring game (168 total, under the 184.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Sydney Swans lead on ELO Rating, Stat Profile and Recent Form. The edge is on the Essendon line at +6.8%.

_Alphr AFL Model v1.0 · 81.9% head-to-head accuracy across 216 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Essendon v Sydney Swans
Sun, 16 Aug, 04:40 pm AEST · MCG · Round 23

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.02 (edge -6.4%) — model probability 91.7%
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +60.5 @ $1.90 (edge +6.8%)
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 184.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%)
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 54 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Overview

The model is firm on Sydney Swans here: 92% to see off Essendon. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sydney Swans sit 656 ELO points clear, 1746 to 1091. Form leans Sydney Swans's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Essendon.

Sydney Swans own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including ELO Rating, Stat Profile and Recent Form. The margin model has Sydney Swans by 53.7, with the two sides combining for about 168. Sydney Swans to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Essendon | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 57.6pts | Avg Score | 111.4pts |
| 121.4pts | Avg Conceded | 88.8pts |
| -63.8pts | Avg Margin | 22.6pts |
| 328.8 | Disposals | 361.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 56.4 | Tackles | 57.6 |
| 33.4 | Clearances | 39.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L | 57.6 |
| Sydney Swans | R18 L · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W | 111.4 |

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Sydney Swans win, around 111–57 (total ~168 — under the 184.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 184.5 line (model projects 168).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-13 09:50 UTC (latest tip update)