# Essendon v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 76 – 112 Sydney Swans

_Sydney Swans ruffle the feathers of Essendon._

Half time: 46 – 70 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 8% / Sydney Swans 92% · MCG · Sun, 16 Aug, 04:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Jaxon Prior (7'), Archie Perkins (10'), Peter Wright (29' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nate Caddy (42' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Rhys Unwin (51'), Archer Day-Wicks (76'), Will Setterfield (79'), Vigo Visentini (82') · Sydney Swans: Charlie Curnow (5' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Jake Lloyd (15' ×2), Chad Warner (17' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jesse Dattoli (20'), Logan McDonald (33' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Billy Cootee (37'), Isaac Heeney (52' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jai Serong (84')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 92% | Won |
| Essendon | 8% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 53.7 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon vs Sydney Swans Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 23, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Aug 2026, 07:50 pm · Last updated: 16 Aug 2026, 07:33 pm_

Essendon 76–112 Sydney Swans in AFL Round 23 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sydney Swans put the pressure on early at the MCG, racing to a 55-18 lead over Essendon by quarter time. The Bombers were left chasing from the start, unable to recover from the Swans' early dominance.

By half time, Sydney Swans had extended their lead to 70-46. The third quarter saw Essendon trailing 61-87, and by the final siren, Sydney had secured a 112-76 victory. That initial burst left Essendon with too much to do.

Sydney's midfield was a key factor, winning 40 clearances to Essendon's 33. Their midfield strength was evident, with a pre-game rating of 1413 compared to Essendon's 1154. Sydney consistently got to the ball first, showing their class.

Inside-50 efficiency was another area where Sydney excelled. They marked 17 times to Essendon's 11, with their forward line proving sharper. Their pre-game forward strength was rated at 1154 against Essendon's 952, and it showed on the field.

Essendon did apply pressure, laying 76 tackles to Sydney's 61. However, the Swans handled it well, maintaining a disposal efficiency of 73.4% compared to Essendon's 71.3%. Those small margins made a big difference under pressure.

The hit-outs were close, 33 to 31, but Sydney managed the ruck contests better. Essendon's ruck advantage of 1220 to 1158 didn't translate into forward momentum, as Sydney quickly regained possession.

Essendon's recent struggles continued. They averaged just 57.6 points in their last five games, unable to match Sydney's attacking average of 111.4. Defensively, they conceded 121.4 on average, compared to Sydney's 88.8.

The Bombers' single win in their last five matches was overshadowed by Sydney's three-game winning streak. Sydney delivered as expected, now with three wins in a row.

Alphr's model had Sydney's win probability at 92%. While it missed the exact margin, predicting 53.7 to the actual 36, Sydney's victory was clear. The total score of 188 points was higher than the predicted 168, indicating a more dynamic game. Essendon did cover the 60.5-point line, slightly exceeding expectations.

In the end, Sydney's early scoreboard pressure put Essendon in a tough spot. The Swans were too clean, composed, and relentless. A classic case of starting strong and maintaining control.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 18 | 28 | 15 | 15 | 76 |
| Sydney Swans | 55 | 15 | 17 | 25 | 112 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 380 | Disposals | **399** |
| 134 | Contested poss. | **141** |
| 33 | Clearances | **40** |
| 50 | Inside 50s | **54** |
| **96** | Marks | 73 |
| 11 | Marks inside 50 | **17** |
| **76** | Tackles | 61 |
| 31 | Hit-outs | **33** |
| **72** | Intercepts | 69 |
| 71.3% | Disposal eff. | **73.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 92% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 53.7 but the actual margin was 36 points. The game's 188 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 168. Sydney Swans led 46–70 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 2/4 on this match. Essendon covered the 60.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.02 (edge -6.4%) — model probability 91.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +60.5 @ $1.90 (edge +6.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 184.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 54 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sydney Swans here: 92% to see off Essendon. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sydney Swans sit 656 ELO points clear, 1746 to 1091. Form leans Sydney Swans' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Essendon.

Sydney Swans own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including ELO Rating, Stat Profile and Recent Form. The margin model has Sydney Swans by 53.7, with the two sides combining for about 168. Sydney Swans to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Essendon | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 57.6pts | Avg Score | 111.4pts |
| 121.4pts | Avg Conceded | 88.8pts |
| -63.8pts | Avg Margin | 22.6pts |
| 328.8 | Disposals | 361.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 56.4 | Tackles | 57.6 |
| 33.4 | Clearances | 39.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L | 57.6 |
| Sydney Swans | R18 L · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W | 111.4 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 110 · 226 | 227 · 160 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 5.1/g |
| Disposals | 80/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.7/g | 21.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.1/g | 10.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.7% | 69.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 66 · 78 | 102 · 66 |
| Goal Assists | 2.5/g | 4.8/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 145/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.9/g | 25.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.5% | 70.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 28 · 20 | 12 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 2/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 146/g | 132/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.3/g | 12.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.5% | 79.6% |

**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.69/g (lg 0.52) +33% · Midfielders 2.37/g (lg 2.46) -4% · Forwards 4.19/g (lg 4.49) -7%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Forwards 5.42/g (lg 4.49) +21% · Defenders 1.22/g (lg 1.06) +15% · Key Forwards 4.3/g (lg 3.88) +11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 37 in 20g | 16/10g (2·1·1·2·3·2·0·3·1·1) | 3/2g | 19/18g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' 62' 84' |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 24 in 16g | 18/10g (0·2·3·0·1·3·1·2·6·0) | 15/13g | 56/37g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' 45' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 9 in 21g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 12/19g | 36/86g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 8 in 13g | 6/10g (2·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 8/10g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/8g | 21% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 6 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 16/31g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/8g | 18/37g | 38% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Jacob Farrow | DEF | 4 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 14/11g | 51/55g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Dyson Sharp | FWD | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 8/49g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 6/60g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 1/16g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Jones | DEF | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 16/20g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Nick Bryan | RUC | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/3g | 1/10g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 7/36g | 14% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 3/6g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Max Kondogiannis | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/15g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Artemis | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/16g | 0% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Rhys Unwin | FWD | 0 in 2g | 1/5g (1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Vigo Visentini | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 82' |

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 62 in 20g | 39/10g (8·2·3·3·6·5·0·4·3·5) | 14/7g | 117/58g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 98% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 8' 75' |
| – | Logan McDonald | KF | 37 in 19g | 22/10g (2·2·2·1·3·1·1·3·4·3) | 2/6g | 22/13g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' 87' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 31 in 21g | 19/10g (3·2·1·4·1·0·2·1·2·3) | 6/7g | 16/16g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 84% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 22' 27' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 29 in 19g | 14/10g (5·2·1·1·1·0·0·1·2·1) | 23/17g | 29/30g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' 67' 76' |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 26 in 16g | 18/10g (1·1·2·2·0·2·4·2·1·3) | 25/14g | 44/28g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 86% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 15 in 21g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·0·2·0·1·0·3) | 2/19g | 6/36g | 32% | — | 🏉 15' 96' |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 9 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/20g | 47/122g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Billy Cootee | FWD | 8 in 7g | 8/7g (1·0·1·0·2·2·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 71% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Jai Serong | MID | 6 in 20g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 28% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 5 in 21g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 16/41g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 5 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/12g | 6/20g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Errol Gulden | FWD | 3 in 9g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/8g | 8/15g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (1·0·2·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/7g | 1/14g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Dattoli | FWD | 2 in 1g | 2/4g (0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/13g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 7/10g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 7/25g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 0/38g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harry Kyle | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 4/22g | 6% | — | — |
| – | William Green | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Merrett | 25.5 | $1.81 | — | — |
| Archie Roberts | 25.5 | $1.76 | 61% | 28 ✗ |
| Sam Durham | 20.5 | — | 40% | — |
| Dyson Sharp | 20.5 | — | 70% | 22 ✗ |
| Will Setterfield | 19.5 | $1.86 | 51% | 32 ✗ |
| Andrew McGrath | 18.5 | — | 49% | 19 ✗ |
| Mason Redman | 17.5 | — | 46% | 20 ✗ |
| Kyle Langford | 17.5 | — | 71% | 13 ✓ |
| Matthew Roberts | 17.5 | — | — | — |
| Jacob Farrow | 16.5 | — | 45% | 15 ✓ |
| Jye Caldwell | 16.5 | — | 48% | 28 ✗ |
| Jaxon Artemis | 15.5 | — | — | 9 ✓ |
| Jaxon Prior | 15.5 | — | 56% | 16 ✗ |
| Zak Johnson | 15.5 | — | 54% | — |

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.90 | 72% | 47 ✗ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 29 ✗ |
| Isaac Heeney | 26.5 | $1.83 | 50% | 29 ✗ |
| Chad Warner | 24.5 | $1.89 | 39% | 23 ✓ |
| Callum Mills | 24.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 23 ✓ |
| Riley Bice | 20.5 | — | 52% | 10 ✓ |
| Tom McCartin | 19.5 | — | 61% | 18 ✓ |
| Brodie Grundy | 19.5 | — | 38% | 25 ✗ |
| Jai Serong | 19.5 | — | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Braeden Campbell | 17.5 | — | 73% | 14 ✓ |
| Jake Lloyd | 17.5 | — | 40% | 21 ✗ |
| Sam Wicks | 17.5 | — | 51% | 15 ✓ |
| Jesse Dattoli | 17.5 | — | — | 12 ✓ |
| James Jordon | 16.5 | — | 42% | 14 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Essendon 1091 · Sydney Swans 1746 · ELO difference: 655 in favour of Sydney Swans

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Essendon | Sydney Swans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1154 (best 1219) | 1413 (best 1466) | Sydney Swans +259 |
| Forwards | 952 (best 1304) | 1154 (best 1377) | Sydney Swans +202 |
| Defence | 1114 (best 1294) | 1219 (best 1378) | Sydney Swans +105 |
| Ruck | 1220 (best 1220) | 1158 (best 1316) | Essendon +62 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 39.1% | Sydney Swans |
| 2 | Stat Profile | 20.7% | Sydney Swans |
| 3 | Recent Form | 16.1% | Sydney Swans |
| 4 | Lineup Strength | 10.5% | Sydney Swans |
| 5 | Forward Line | 5.3% | Sydney Swans |
| 6 | Weather | 3.4% | Essendon |

**Model Confidence: 92%** — Sydney Swans predicted to win by 54 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-16 09:33 UTC (latest tip update)