# Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne — AFL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Western Bulldogs 77 – 100 North Melbourne

_North Melbourne see off Western Bulldogs._

Half time: 36 – 62 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Western Bulldogs 67% / North Melbourne 33% · Marvel Stadium · Thu, 06 Aug, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Western Bulldogs: Matthew Kennedy (10' ×2), Cooper Hynes (29'), Aaron Naughton (34' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Marcus Bontempelli (36' Tipped ⚡), Joel Freijah (39'), Buku Khamis (67'), Ed Richards (77'), Tom Liberatore (79'), Final quarter (29m 56s)Sam Davidson (63') · North Melbourne: Paul Curtis (8' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Jy Simpkin (13'), George Wardlaw (16'), Jack Darling (18' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Charlie Spargo (28'), Zac Banch (52' ×2), Luke Davies-Uniacke (57' ×2), Luke Parker (91')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 67% | Lost |
| North Melbourne | 33% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 13.5 predicted → 23 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Aug 2026, 06:53 pm · Last updated: 6 Aug 2026, 10:15 pm_

Western Bulldogs 77–100 North Melbourne in AFL Round 22 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne turned the tables on the Western Bulldogs with a dominant first half, setting the stage for their 100–77 victory at Marvel Stadium. By half-time, they led 62–36, a margin that left the Bulldogs scrambling to catch up. The Kangaroos never relinquished control, maintaining their lead throughout the match.

The Bulldogs made a push in the third quarter, narrowing the gap to 10 points by the three-quarter mark, but North Melbourne held firm. Their defensive unit, supported by a solid midfield, dictated the tempo and kept the Bulldogs at bay. Despite the Bulldogs' efforts, North Melbourne's composure ensured they stayed ahead.

North Melbourne's control of possession was evident, with 418 disposals compared to the Bulldogs' 351. Their efficiency in distribution allowed them to maintain control and prevent the Bulldogs from mounting a significant challenge. While the Bulldogs had more entries into their forward 50, with 59 compared to North Melbourne's 49, they struggled to convert this into scoreboard pressure.

The Kangaroos' ruck division was crucial, winning 43 hit-outs to the Bulldogs' 25. This advantage in the ruck allowed them to dominate the clearance battle, outpacing the Bulldogs 42 to 33. By denying the Bulldogs first use of the ball, North Melbourne stifled their ability to launch effective attacks.

In front of goal, North Melbourne's forward efficiency was a decisive factor. They took 19 marks inside the 50 compared to the Bulldogs' 9, making every attacking opportunity count. This sharpness left the Bulldogs' defence scrambling to respond.

Pre-match, Alphr's model had the Bulldogs as favourites, with a 67% win probability based on their ELO rating of 1537 to North Melbourne's 1292. The model predicted a Bulldogs win by 13.5 points, but the reality was different. North Melbourne exceeded expectations, not only overcoming the odds but also covering the 20.5-point line.

The Bulldogs' recent form suggested they could be victors, with three wins in their last five games compared to North Melbourne's winless streak. However, the Kangaroos' performance showed the impact of their determination to secure a win. Despite the Bulldogs' higher defensive rating, they couldn't withstand North Melbourne's focused assault.

In the end, North Melbourne's cohesion and consistency across the park secured their victory. The Bulldogs couldn't recover from the early deficit, and the Kangaroos' superiority in key metrics like clearances and marks inside 50 solidified their win. It's a reminder that maintaining momentum is crucial to success.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 15 | 21 | 33 | 8 | 77 |
| North Melbourne | 36 | 26 | 17 | 21 | 100 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 351 | Disposals | **418** |
| 132 | Contested poss. | **139** |
| 33 | Clearances | **42** |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 49 |
| 67 | Marks | **109** |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **19** |
| 61 | Tackles | **64** |
| 25 | Hit-outs | **43** |
| **58** | Intercepts | 55 |
| **74.1%** | Disposal eff. | 73.2% |

**Model Report Card**

North Melbourne defied the model's 67% prediction for Western Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 13.5 but the actual margin was 23 points. The model went 1/4 on this match. North Melbourne covered the 20.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.32 (edge -8.8%) — model probability 66.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +20.5 @ $1.90 (edge +7.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 14 · Predicted total: 167

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Western Bulldogs here: 67% to see off North Melbourne. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Western Bulldogs sit 245 ELO points clear, 1537 to 1292. Form leans Western Bulldogs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for North Melbourne.

Western Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Weather and Recent Form. The margin model has Western Bulldogs by 13.5, with the two sides combining for about 167. Western Bulldogs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 72.8pts | Avg Score | 71.6pts |
| 70.8pts | Avg Conceded | 89.2pts |
| 2.0pts | Avg Margin | -17.6pts |
| 349.8 | Disposals | 389.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 54.2 | Tackles | 47.4 |
| 38.6 | Clearances | 31.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | R17 L · R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 L | 72.8 |
| North Melbourne | R17 L · R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L | 71.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Western Bulldogs | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 146 · 168 | 177 · 171 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposals | 99/g | 94/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.4/g | 14.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.3/g | 9.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.9% | 72.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Western Bulldogs | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 70 · 61 | 45 · 74 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 137/g | 149/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.4/g | 24/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.2/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.7% | 73.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Western Bulldogs | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 13 · 14 | 13 · 21 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.5/g | 9.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.1% | 81.5% |

**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Key Forwards 5.09/g (lg 3.86) +32% · Defenders 1.41/g (lg 1.07) +32% · Rucks 0.68/g (lg 0.52) +31%
**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.52) +6% · Key Forwards 3.99/g (lg 3.86) +3% · Midfielders 2.49/g (lg 2.48) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 42 in 19g | 19/10g (3·2·1·1·2·2·1·5·1·1) | 24/11g | 167/89g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' 85' |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 27 in 20g | 13/10g (2·1·2·0·1·0·2·3·2·0) | 19/17g | 167/145g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' |
| – | Arthur Jones | FWD | 17 in 15g | 12/10g (2·1·1·2·1·2·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 16/18g | 61% | — | — |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 16 in 19g | 11/10g (2·2·1·1·1·0·0·1·2·1) | 1/6g | 58/53g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 15 in 19g | 10/10g (3·2·0·1·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 5/9g | 42/80g | 60% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Jordan Croft | KF | 12 in 15g | 8/10g (1·0·3·0·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 7/9g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.53 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | 9 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 10/14g | 42% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 7 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 11/31g | 34% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 6 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 24/90g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 6 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0) | 4/8g | 34/59g | 34% | — | 🏉 10' 88' |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 9/9g | 49/80g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 5 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·1) | 7/12g | 38/55g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 5 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 12/17g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dolan | FWD | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/12g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 4 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/42g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 10/30g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Cody Weightman | FWD | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 20/5g | 68/36g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/18g | 45/127g | 16% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 11/32g | 16% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/36g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jaques | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Michael Sellwood | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Coffield | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/32g | 2% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 39 in 20g | 16/10g (2·1·4·1·1·1·3·0·1·2) | 22/9g | 145/69g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 77% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 32 in 17g | 17/10g (1·1·3·2·0·0·3·3·2·2) | 7/5g | 70/44g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' 56' 91' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 29 in 19g | 18/10g (3·1·4·0·2·2·1·2·3·0) | 45/19g | 77/50g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 73' |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 28 in 20g | 14/10g (2·1·1·4·1·0·1·1·0·3) | 0/0g | 19/11g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 11 in 20g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 2/4g | 15/40g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 10 in 16g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·0·0) | 6/9g | 13/18g | 38% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 9 in 20g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 36/89g | 38% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 8 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 13/9g | 101/73g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 6 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 7/28g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 17/39g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/18g | 15% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/23g | 34% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 26/66g | 28% | — | 🏉 57' 76' |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 4/32g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Zac Banch | FWD | 3 in 5g | 4/9g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 44% | — | 🏉 52' 85' |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/18g | 36/51g | 20% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/32g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/51g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 30/108g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/29g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom Blamires | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Dawson | RUC | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 25 ✓ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 28 ✗ |
| Thomas Liberatore | 24.5 | $1.90 | — | — |
| Ryley Sanders ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 17 ✓ |
| Lachlan Bramble ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 86% | 21 ✓ |
| Bailey Williams | 20.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 22 ✗ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 30.5 | $1.88 | 46% | 29 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel | 25.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 33 ✗ |
| Luke Parker | 25.5 | $1.88 | 47% | 26 ✗ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 25.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 31 ✗ |
| Colby McKercher | 22.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 30 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 22.5 | $1.80 | 47% | 17 ✓ |
| Finn O'Sullivan | 19.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 16 ✓ |
| Dylan Stephens | 18.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 28 ✗ |
| Tristan Xerri ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 17 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Western Bulldogs 1537 · North Melbourne 1292 · ELO difference: 245 in favour of Western Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Western Bulldogs | North Melbourne | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1097 (best 1097) | 1163 (best 1163) | North Melbourne +66 |
| Forwards | 1116 (best 1272) | 1158 (best 1284) | North Melbourne +42 |
| Defence | 1236 (best 1376) | 1166 (best 1371) | Western Bulldogs +71 |
| Ruck | 1294 (best 1294) | 1279 (best 1279) | Western Bulldogs +15 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 35.2% | Western Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Line | 12.7% | North Melbourne |
| 3 | Weather | 10.8% | Western Bulldogs |
| 4 | Venue | 9.7% | North Melbourne |
| 5 | Recent Form | 6.0% | Western Bulldogs |
| 6 | Stat Profile | 5.6% | Western Bulldogs |
| 7 | Lineup Strength | 5.4% | Western Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 167 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-06 12:15 UTC (latest tip update)