# West Coast Eagles v Collingwood — AFL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 98 – 117 Collingwood

_Collingwood see off West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 59 – 65 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 21% / Collingwood 79% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 09 Aug, 04:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Tim Kelly (12'), Jobe Shanahan (18' Tipped ⚡), Tom Gross (26' ×2), Jack Williams (28' ×2), Elliot Yeo (34'), Jake Waterman (42' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Graham (52'), Milan Murdock (75'), Harley Reid (95'), Final quarter (31m 43s)Jake Waterman (68'), Cooper Duff-Tytler (71') · Collingwood: Daniel McStay (9' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Lachie Schultz (10' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Lachlan Sullivan (14'), Roan Steele (22' ×2), Sam Swadling (49'), Nick Daicos (54' Tipped ⚡), Dan Houston (64'), Tim Membrey (73' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Will Hayes (86')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 79% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 31.3 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Aug 2026, 09:28 pm · Last updated: 9 Aug 2026, 07:10 pm_

West Coast Eagles 98–117 Collingwood in AFL Round 22 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Collingwood defeated West Coast Eagles 117-98 at Optus Stadium. The Magpies applied early scoreboard pressure, leading 39-37 at quarter time and maintaining a narrow lead of 65-59 by half time. The third quarter saw Collingwood extend their lead to 101-78, creating a gap that proved too wide for the Eagles to close.

Collingwood's midfield was crucial in this victory. Despite West Coast's higher midfield rating, Collingwood won the clearances 47 to 36. This advantage allowed them to maintain momentum and keep the scoreboard ticking. West Coast, with a stronger ruck rating, won the hit-outs 45 to 36 but couldn't convert this into a scoring advantage.

The inside 50 count highlighted Collingwood's offensive pressure. They entered their forward 50 a total of 64 times compared to West Coast's 52. This gave the Magpies more scoring opportunities, and they capitalised with 12 marks inside 50 against the Eagles' 10.

Defensively, Collingwood's 70 intercepts disrupted West Coast's play, despite the Eagles' strong defensive rating. West Coast managed 62 intercepts, but Collingwood's ability to read the play and transition from defence to attack was evident.

West Coast entered the match on a five-game losing streak, averaging 65.6 points per game. Collingwood, in contrast, had won four of their last five, averaging 92.6 points. The Magpies' recent form and average margin of +8 points underlined their consistency, while West Coast's -29.2 margin highlighted their struggles.

Alphr's model predicted a Collingwood win with a 79% probability, expecting a 31.3-point margin. The actual margin was 19 points, but the prediction of a Collingwood victory was accurate. The game was higher scoring than anticipated, with 215 total points compared to the predicted 168.

West Coast had a slight edge in disposals, 376 to Collingwood's 370, showing their ability to handle the ball. However, this didn't translate into dominance on the scoreboard. Tackles were close, with Collingwood leading 74 to 68. Ultimately, it was Collingwood's efficiency and ability to convert pressure into points that secured the win.

In conclusion, Collingwood controlled the midfield and maintained pressure throughout the match. Although they didn't achieve the predicted margin, their performance justified their favourite status. West Coast kept the game competitive but couldn't overcome their recent form and statistical disadvantages. Collingwood had the answers when it mattered most.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 37 | 22 | 19 | 20 | 98 |
| Collingwood | 39 | 26 | 36 | 16 | 117 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| **376** | Disposals | 370 |
| 143 | Contested poss. | **157** |
| 36 | Clearances | **47** |
| 52 | Inside 50s | **64** |
| **85** | Marks | 60 |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| 68 | Tackles | **74** |
| **45** | Hit-outs | 36 |
| 62 | Intercepts | **70** |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 79% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 31.3 but the actual margin was 19 points. The game's 215 points came in 47 points higher than the predicted 168. Collingwood led 59–65 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 19. The model went 3/4 on this match. Collingwood covered the 9.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.58 (edge +15.9%) — model probability 79.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -9.5 @ $1.92 (edge +21.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 31 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Collingwood here: 79% to see off West Coast Eagles. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Collingwood sit 505 ELO points clear, 1620 to 1115. Form leans Collingwood's way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for West Coast Eagles.

Collingwood own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including ELO Rating, Stat Profile and Lineup Strength. The margin model has Collingwood by 31.3, with the two sides combining for about 168. Collingwood to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 65.6pts | Avg Score | 92.6pts |
| 94.8pts | Avg Conceded | 84.6pts |
| -29.2pts | Avg Margin | 8.0pts |
| 331.8 | Disposals | 376.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 70.6 |
| 35.2 | Clearances | 37.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | R17 L · R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L | 65.6 |
| Collingwood | R17 W · R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 L | 92.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 116 · 198 | 182 · 166 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 5.2/g |
| Disposals | 74/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 12/g | 21.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.2/g | 10.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.8% | 70% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 57 · 69 | 59 · 53 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.4/g | 19.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.1/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68% | 71.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 15 · 23 | 6 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 122/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 12/g | 11.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.5% | 80.7% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.52) +4% · Defenders 1.03/g (lg 1.07) -4% · Midfielders 2.35/g (lg 2.49) -6%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.71/g (lg 0.52) +37% · Midfielders 3.39/g (lg 2.49) +36% · Forwards 5.33/g (lg 4.47) +19%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 43 in 20g | 22/10g (1·3·3·3·0·3·1·5·1·2) | 4/8g | 120/70g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' 78' |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 27 in 20g | 17/10g (2·1·1·3·1·3·2·3·0·1) | 3/2g | 24/16g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 14 in 19g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 9/10g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 13 in 20g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 21/32g | 50% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 12 in 18g | 4/10g (3·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/13g | 27/68g | 40% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 8 in 16g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 22/51g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 8 in 14g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/12g | 6/73g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·2) | 2/3g | 22/26g | 60% | — | 🏉 28' 97' |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 6 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 11/31g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/13g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 5 in 20g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 3/51g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Milan Murdock | FWD | 4 in 6g | 4/6g (1·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 67% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Cooper Duff-Tytler | KF | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 13% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 5/23g | 20% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/10g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lindsay | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/15g | 4/92g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 24/73g | 10% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/16g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Herbert | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/22g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Gross | FWD | 0 in 1g | 1/9g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 11% | — | 🏉 26' 39' |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 38 in 20g | 21/10g (2·1·2·1·0·3·3·2·2·5) | 7/10g | 9/4g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' 32' 59' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 27 in 16g | 18/10g (0·3·0·3·2·3·2·3·2·0) | 25/13g | 13/8g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' 80' 75' |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 21 in 18g | 13/10g (1·1·1·2·0·2·4·1·1·0) | 12/9g | 51/48g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 15' 80' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 21 in 19g | 13/10g (3·1·2·1·3·1·1·0·1·0) | 8/5g | 4/4g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 54' |
| – | Angus Anderson | FWD | 14 in 13g | 11/10g (1·1·1·2·1·2·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 87% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.47 AI 63% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 12 in 19g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·2) | 2/3g | 2/5g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | 11 in 15g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 43% | — | 🏉 22' 91' |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 6 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 6/12g | 28% | — | — |
| – | William Hayes | FWD | 5 in 6g | 6/8g (0·1·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 63% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Sam Swadling | MID | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (1·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 80% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 8/21g | 2/8g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Charlie West | KF | 3 in 5g | 4/6g (1·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 1/8g | 24% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Harrison | FWD | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 4/2g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 4/8g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 3/9g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/2g | 0/2g | 40% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Puncher | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Howes | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Herbert | 26.5 | — | 88% | 21 ✓ |
| Tim Kelly ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.86 | 66% | 23 ✓ |
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 24 ✓ |
| Harley Reid | 23.5 | $1.90 | 52% | 29 ✗ |
| Jordan De Goey | 20.5 | $1.86 | 49% | — |
| Willem Duursma | 18.5 | — | 61% | 16 ✓ |
| Josh Lindsay | 18.5 | — | 59% | 19 ✗ |
| Liam Baker | 18.5 | — | 54% | 16 ✓ |
| Ryan Maric | 17.5 | — | 56% | — |
| Elliot Yeo | 17.5 | — | 75% | 28 ✗ |
| Jack Graham | 17.5 | — | 62% | 17 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 16.5 | — | 45% | 18 ✗ |
| Milan Murdock | 15.5 | — | 70% | 14 ✓ |
| Brady Hough | 15.5 | — | 75% | 20 ✗ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 34.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 39 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos | 23.5 | $1.77 | 50% | 35 ✗ |
| Dan Houston | 22.5 | — | 77% | 17 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 20.5 | — | 64% | 18 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.98 | 71% | 24 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 18.5 | — | 51% | 12 ✓ |
| Ned Long | 17.5 | — | 77% | 25 ✗ |
| Edward Allan | 17.5 | — | 61% | 20 ✗ |
| Isaac Quaynor | 17.5 | — | 66% | 15 ✓ |
| Sam Swadling | 17.5 | — | 73% | 14 ✓ |
| Roan Steele | 14.5 | — | 39% | 13 ✓ |
| Angus Anderson | 13.5 | — | 79% | 14 ✗ |
| Beau McCreery | 13.5 | — | 73% | 18 ✗ |
| Tim Membrey | 13.5 | — | 68% | 20 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — West Coast Eagles 1115 · Collingwood 1620 · ELO difference: 505 in favour of Collingwood

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | West Coast Eagles | Collingwood | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1218 (best 1218) | 1110 (best 1248) | West Coast Eagles +108 |
| Forwards | 1076 (best 1344) | 1138 (best 1421) | Collingwood +62 |
| Defence | 1135 (best 1353) | 1161 (best 1325) | Collingwood +26 |
| Ruck | 1195 (best 1195) | 1000 (best 1000) | West Coast Eagles +195 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 51.9% | Collingwood |
| 2 | Stat Profile | 14.8% | Collingwood |
| 3 | Lineup Strength | 9.7% | Collingwood |
| 4 | Recent Form | 9.3% | Collingwood |
| 5 | Weather | 4.9% | West Coast Eagles |
| 6 | Forward Line | 2.3% | Collingwood |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Collingwood predicted to win by 31 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-09 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)