# Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 167 – 70 Port Adelaide

_Sydney Swans run riot over Port Adelaide._

Half time: 78 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 87% / Port Adelaide 13% · SCG · Sat, 08 Aug, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Jake Lloyd (12' ×3 1st), Chad Warner (17' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Logan McDonald (22' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Billy Cootee (31' ×2), Matt Roberts (33'), Tom Papley (36' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jesse Dattoli (37' ×2), Charlie Curnow (46' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Riley Bice (47'), Jai Serong (53'), Isaac Heeney (81' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (37m 7s)Charlie Curnow (63'), Errol Gulden (81') · Port Adelaide: Tom Anastasopoulos (13'), Jason Horne-Francis (15' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Whitlock (19' ×3), Corey Durdin (57' ×2), Todd Marshall (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 87% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 13% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 45.3 predicted → 97 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Aug 2026, 09:28 pm · Last updated: 8 Aug 2026, 07:41 pm_

Sydney Swans 167–70 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 22 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sydney Swans thrashed Port Adelaide 167–70 at the SCG. The scoreline was brutal, but the stats show it was even more one-sided. Port Adelaide started well, leading by 2 points at quarter time. That was as good as it got for them. By half time, Sydney had surged to a 42-point lead. By three-quarter time, the Swans were up 103–44. An extra 64 points in the final quarter turned a commanding win into a demolition.

Sydney's midfield was dominant, with 425 disposals to Port's 339. They were more efficient too, hitting targets at 76.5% compared to Port's 68.4%. Sydney had more of everything, and that made all the difference. Despite losing the hit-out battle 47 to 27, Sydney compensated elsewhere. They edged out Port in clearances, 41 to 38, and took 63 inside 50s compared to Port's 50. The Swans applied relentless pressure, racking up 61 tackles to Port's 42.

Marking was another area where the Swans excelled. They claimed 21 marks inside the forward 50 compared to Port Adelaide’s 12. With 67 intercepts, Sydney’s backline was solid, keeping Port on the back foot whenever they tried to attack. Sydney’s strong recent form carried into this game, having won three of their last five. The Swans averaged 96 points in those games, and today they exceeded that by some distance. Port’s woes continued, having picked up just one win in their last five.

Alphr’s model predicted a Swans win with an 87% probability, expecting them to cover the 37.5-point line easily. It pegged the total points at 168, but the match combined for 237. The margin model predicted a win by 45.3 points, but even it couldn’t foresee the Swans running away with a 97-point victory.

This outing was a statement from Sydney. Port Adelaide was left to lick their wounds. For the Swans, it’s a job well done.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 20 | 58 | 25 | 64 | 167 |
| Port Adelaide | 22 | 14 | 8 | 26 | 70 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **425** | Disposals | 339 |
| **130** | Contested poss. | 125 |
| **41** | Clearances | 38 |
| **63** | Inside 50s | 50 |
| **86** | Marks | 83 |
| **21** | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| **61** | Tackles | 42 |
| 27 | Hit-outs | **47** |
| **67** | Intercepts | 55 |
| **76.5%** | Disposal eff. | 68.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 87% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 45.3 but the actual margin was 97 points. The game's 237 points came in 69 points higher than the predicted 168. Sydney Swans led 78–36 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 97. The model went 3/4 on this match. Sydney Swans covered the 37.5-point line. The 40+ margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.12 (edge -1.8%) — model probability 87.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans -37.5 @ $1.89 (edge +7.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 45 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sydney Swans here: 87% to see off Port Adelaide. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sydney Swans sit 364 ELO points clear, 1725 to 1360. Form leans Sydney Swans' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Port Adelaide.

Sydney Swans own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Recent Form and Weather. The margin model has Sydney Swans by 45.3, with the two sides combining for about 168. Sydney Swans to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 96.0pts | Avg Score | 70.2pts |
| 85.8pts | Avg Conceded | 88.6pts |
| 10.2pts | Avg Margin | -18.4pts |
| 362.0 | Disposals | 314.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 51.6 |
| 38.0 | Clearances | 37.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | R17 W · R18 L · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W | 96.0 |
| Port Adelaide | R17 W · R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L | 70.2 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Sydney Swans | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 206 · 152 | 141 · 175 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 96/g | 95/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.4/g | 17/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.3/g | 9.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.2% | 65.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Sydney Swans | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 98 · 64 | 63 · 50 |
| Goal Assists | 5.1/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposals | 157/g | 139/g |
| Inside 50s | 29/g | 24.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.7/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.9% | 68.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Sydney Swans | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 15 | 15 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 2/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 105/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.9/g | 9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.6% | 78.4% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.16/g (lg 1.07) +8% · Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.52) +4% · Key Forwards 3.96/g (lg 3.86) +3%
**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.7/g (lg 0.52) +35% · Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.49) -4% · Forwards 4.19/g (lg 4.47) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 57 in 19g | 36/10g (2·8·2·3·3·6·5·0·4·3) | 21/10g | 35/15g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' 49' 70' 72' |
| – | Logan McDonald | KF | 34 in 18g | 22/10g (3·2·2·2·1·3·1·1·3·4) | 7/5g | 59/42g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 41' 93' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 28 in 20g | 16/10g (0·3·2·1·4·1·0·2·1·2) | 5/7g | 57/62g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 84' 88' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 28 in 18g | 14/10g (1·5·2·1·1·1·0·0·1·2) | 18/12g | 147/110g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 81' |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 23 in 15g | 16/10g (1·1·1·2·2·0·2·4·2·1) | 11/9g | 153/93g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' 76' 89' |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 13 in 9g | 15/10g (2·3·4·2·0·3·0·0·1·0) | 6/6g | 55/43g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 12 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 5/16g | 23/128g | 28% | — | 🏉 12' 82' 96' |
| – | Billy Cootee | FWD | 6 in 6g | 6/6g (1·0·1·0·2·2) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 67% | — | 🏉 31' 98' |
| – | Jai Serong | MID | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 2/9g | 23% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 5 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 15/34g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 5 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/10g | 26/74g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (0·1·0·2·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 16/45g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Errol Gulden | MID | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 33/49g | 40% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/30g | 4% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/14g | 9% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 3/11g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 16/42g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 11/89g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harry Kyle | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Dattoli | FWD | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 37' 66' |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/55g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 18/73g | 6% | — | — |
| – | William Green | RUC | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 29 in 20g | 13/10g (1·1·2·0·3·1·2·2·1·0) | 5/5g | 1/3g | 72% | — | 🏉 57' 69' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 25 in 19g | 14/10g (0·3·3·2·0·1·1·2·1·1) | 5/8g | 1/4g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' 74' |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 19 in 20g | 8/10g (2·0·0·2·0·3·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 47% | — | 🏉 19' 79' 95' |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 14 in 20g | 7/10g (0·2·1·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 8 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 8 in 19g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/2g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Todd Marshall | KF | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·2) | 12/7g | 4/2g | 56% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Mitch Zadow | FWD | 5 in 5g | 5/5g (1·0·3·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 2/6g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/17g | 1/8g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/31g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Alex Van Wyk | RUC | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Balyn O'Brien | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Ramm | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Anastasopoulos | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Will Lorenz | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.91 | 71% | 39 ✗ |
| Isaac Heeney | 27.5 | $1.92 | 60% | 24 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.92 | 68% | 28 ✗ |
| Chad Warner | 24.5 | $1.94 | 49% | 24 ✓ |
| Callum Mills | 23.5 | — | 52% | 24 ✗ |
| Oliver Wines | 22.5 | $1.84 | — | — |
| Brodie Grundy | 19.5 | — | 44% | — |
| Riley Bice | 19.5 | — | 52% | 22 ✗ |
| Tom McCartin | 19.5 | — | 64% | 16 ✓ |
| Sam Wicks | 18.5 | — | 57% | 9 ✓ |
| Matthew Roberts | 18.5 | — | — | — |
| Jai Serong | 17.5 | — | 53% | 24 ✗ |
| Lachlan Jones | 17.5 | — | — | — |
| Jake Lloyd | 17.5 | — | 43% | 19 ✗ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Horne-Francis | 22.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 18 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 21.5 | $1.78 | 64% | 34 ✗ |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | 21.5 | $1.84 | 64% | 24 ✗ |
| Will Lorenz | 20.5 | — | 89% | 17 ✓ |
| Miles Bergman | 19.5 | — | 76% | 20 ✗ |
| Aliir Aliir | 17.5 | — | 73% | 11 ✓ |
| Willem Drew | 17.5 | — | 50% | 31 ✗ |
| Josh Lai | 15.5 | — | 70% | 9 ✓ |
| Joe Berry | 15.5 | — | 82% | 22 ✗ |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | 15.5 | — | — | 11 ✓ |
| Jordon Sweet | 14.5 | — | 68% | 9 ✓ |
| Christian Moraes | 14.5 | — | 72% | 14 ✓ |
| Corey Durdin | 12.5 | — | 77% | 13 ✗ |
| Todd Marshall | 11.5 | — | 83% | 14 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sydney Swans 1725 · Port Adelaide 1360 · ELO difference: 364 in favour of Sydney Swans

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sydney Swans | Port Adelaide | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1253 (best 1253) | 1105 (best 1105) | Sydney Swans +148 |
| Forwards | 1076 (best 1287) | 1070 (best 1419) | Sydney Swans +6 |
| Defence | 1228 (best 1357) | 1227 (best 1355) | Sydney Swans +2 |
| Ruck | 1316 (best 1316) | 1092 (best 1184) | Sydney Swans +224 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 43.8% | Sydney Swans |
| 2 | Recent Form | 15.4% | Sydney Swans |
| 3 | Weather | 9.6% | Sydney Swans |
| 4 | Venue | 8.9% | Sydney Swans |
| 5 | Lineup Strength | 8.5% | Sydney Swans |
| 6 | Forward Line | 4.5% | — |
| 7 | Defence | 3.5% | — |

**Model Confidence: 87%** — Sydney Swans predicted to win by 45 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-sydney-swans-v-port-adelaide
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-08 09:41 UTC (latest tip update)