# St Kilda v Carlton — AFL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 62 – 106 Carlton

_Carlton see off St Kilda._

Half time: 28 – 53 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 45% / Carlton 55% · Marvel Stadium · Sun, 09 Aug, 07:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Liam Ryan (41' Tipped ⚡), Max Hall (60' ×2), Rowan Marshall (69'), Campbell Lake (79'), Mitch Owens (84') · Carlton: Marc Pittonet (8' ×2 1st), Francis Evans (15'), Harry McKay (20' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ben Ainsworth (42' ×2), Will Hayward (51' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Walsh (55'), Brodie Kemp (84' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mitch McGovern (62' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Talor Byrne (91' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 55% | Won |
| St Kilda | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.7 predicted → 44 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda vs Carlton Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 22, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Aug 2026, 09:29 pm · Last updated: 9 Aug 2026, 10:01 pm_

St Kilda 62–106 Carlton in AFL Round 22 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

At half-time, Carlton had established a commanding 53–28 lead over St Kilda at Marvel Stadium. The Blues had shown early intent, holding a 13-point advantage at quarter-time. In the second half, Carlton extended their dominance, ultimately securing a 106–62 victory.

St Kilda had their moments, particularly in the midfield, winning the clearance battle 42 to 35. However, they failed to capitalise on this advantage. Carlton's ability to control possession was a key factor. They finished with 405 disposals compared to St Kilda's 331, dictating the game's tempo.

Carlton's forward entries were more frequent and effective. They went inside 50 on 56 occasions, 12 more times than St Kilda. Their precision in delivery was evident, with 21 marks inside 50 compared to St Kilda's 13, leaving the Saints' defence under pressure.

By the end of the third quarter, Carlton's lead had grown to 74–39. St Kilda struggled to make significant inroads, with Carlton's defence, rated just slightly below St Kilda's pre-match, holding firm and conceding only 62 points.

Tackling pressure was another crucial element. Carlton laid 60 tackles to St Kilda's 42, highlighting their defensive intent and ability to stifle the Saints across the ground. This pressure forced St Kilda into hurried disposals and mistakes, further benefiting Carlton.

The Blues' ruck division also contributed to their control. They edged out St Kilda in hit-outs 33 to 29, giving their midfield more opportunities. Although St Kilda had their moments in the clearances, it wasn’t enough to counter Carlton's overall efficiency.

Our model predicted Carlton as the likely winners, but the extent of their dominance was unexpected. The pre-match line of Carlton by 9.7 points underestimated the final margin, which stretched to 44 points. However, the total points prediction was accurate, with our model anticipating 168 points, exactly matching the final combined score.

For St Kilda, the loss highlights areas for improvement. While their midfield work was commendable, converting those clearances into scoreboard pressure remains a challenge. Carlton's recent form of WLLWW suggests they're gaining momentum. If they maintain this level of performance, they could pose a threat to future opponents.

In summary, Carlton's polish and persistence secured a convincing victory over St Kilda. The model’s confidence in the Blues was justified, even if the margin was larger than expected.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 8 | 20 | 11 | 23 | 62 |
| Carlton | 21 | 32 | 21 | 32 | 106 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 331 | Disposals | **405** |
| 117 | Contested poss. | **118** |
| **42** | Clearances | 35 |
| 44 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| 70 | Marks | **117** |
| 13 | Marks inside 50 | **21** |
| 42 | Tackles | **60** |
| 29 | Hit-outs | **33** |
| **55** | Intercepts | 54 |
| 74.3% | Disposal eff. | **77.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.7 but the actual margin was 44 points. Total score prediction of 168 was close to the actual 168, within 0 points. Carlton led 28–53 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 44. The model went 3/4 on this match. Carlton covered the 6.5-point line. The under 174.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.65 (edge -5.5%) — model probability 55.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -6.5 @ $1.89 (edge +3.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 174.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 10 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Carlton are the call at 55%, but St Kilda stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Carlton sit 138 ELO points clear, 1615 to 1477.

Carlton own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Forward Line and Stat Profile. The margin model has Carlton by 9.7, with the two sides combining for about 168. Lean Carlton, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Kilda | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 92.0pts | Avg Score | 89.2pts |
| 78.8pts | Avg Conceded | 88.0pts |
| 13.2pts | Avg Margin | 1.2pts |
| 424.4 | Disposals | 397.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 61.6 | Tackles | 63.2 |
| 37.8 | Clearances | 38.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | R17 W · R18 W · R19 L · R20 W · R21 L | 92.0 |
| Carlton | R17 W · R18 L · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W | 89.2 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 164 · 178 | 172 · 167 |
| Goal Assists | 4.7/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 103/g | 105/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.1/g | 18.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.1/g | 9.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.7% | 69% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 66 · 54 | 59 · 70 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 154/g | 143/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.9/g | 20/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.7/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71% | 71.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 28 · 14 | 12 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 137/g |
| Inside 50s | 11/g | 13.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.1% | 77% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.66/g (lg 0.52) +27% · Defenders 1.27/g (lg 1.07) +19% · Forwards 4.63/g (lg 4.49) +3%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.64/g (lg 2.47) +7% · Key Forwards 4.03/g (lg 3.86) +4% · Forwards 4.18/g (lg 4.49) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 30 in 15g | 23/10g (1·3·5·6·0·2·2·2·1·1) | 10/7g | 40/23g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' |
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 27 in 14g | 20/10g (0·4·5·1·1·2·2·1·2·2) | 12/7g | 114/73g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 24 in 18g | 13/10g (0·2·0·0·2·4·1·1·3·0) | 6/5g | 67/48g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 22 in 20g | 10/10g (2·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·3) | 1/2g | 20/24g | 64% | — | 🏉 60' 88' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 20 in 17g | 9/10g (3·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 5/5g | 59/52g | 66% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 19 in 16g | 13/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·4·3) | 1/6g | 23/59g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 16 in 19g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 22/32g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 11 in 18g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·2·0) | 9/11g | 56/89g | 44% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 11 in 17g | 10/10g (2·0·2·0·2·2·1·1·0·0) | 2/1g | 19/40g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 10 in 18g | 5/10g (0·2·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 18/33g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 9 in 20g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 6/16g | 24/94g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 9 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 10/26g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 30/41g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 8 in 19g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/7g | 87/91g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 5 in 20g | 4/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 32/50g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Lake | FWD | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 50% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 10/51g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 8/51g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/89g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 10/63g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/52g | 0% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 31 in 20g | 12/10g (2·0·0·0·2·1·2·2·2·1) | 7/8g | 24/39g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' 71' |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 30 in 20g | 15/10g (2·2·2·1·0·2·0·1·0·5) | 4/4g | 18/22g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 84' 82' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 25 in 18g | 14/10g (2·1·0·3·1·3·1·0·0·3) | 13/9g | 103/49g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 67' 72' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 21 in 20g | 9/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·2·1·1) | 11/11g | 22/28g | 74% | — | 🏉 42' 85' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 19 in 19g | 13/10g (2·3·1·2·1·0·0·0·3·1) | 15/11g | 46/33g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' 59' |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 14 in 18g | 10/10g (1·0·0·3·2·1·0·0·2·1) | 1/2g | 12/10g | 54% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Talor Byrne | FWD | 14 in 15g | 13/10g (1·1·2·0·3·0·1·0·3·2) | 0/0g | 8/4g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 91' |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 13 in 16g | 12/10g (1·1·1·1·2·2·0·0·3·1) | 4/12g | 18/48g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 13 in 20g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·2·1·0) | 9/15g | 52/77g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 7 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 4/6g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 7 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 7/25g | 20% | — | 🏉 8' 33' |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 6 in 20g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/9g | 12/48g | 26% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Matthew Cottrell | FWD | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 13/27g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 8/34g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 7/33g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/10g | 11/31g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 29/74g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/8g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/19g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 1/32g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wade Derksen | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 30.5 | $1.86 | 58% | 4 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill | 25.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 31 ✗ |
| Hugo Garcia | 22.5 | $1.85 | 61% | 19 ✓ |
| Max Hall | 21.5 | — | 66% | 30 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie | 21.5 | — | 62% | 10 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilson | 21.5 | — | 65% | 25 ✗ |
| Jackson Macrae | 21.5 | — | — | — |
| Marcus Windhager | 21.5 | — | 59% | 24 ✗ |
| Mattaes Phillipou | 21.5 | — | 81% | 15 ✓ |
| Mason Wood | 20.5 | — | 75% | 8 ✓ |
| Rowan Marshall | 18.5 | — | 57% | 14 ✓ |
| Liam Stocker | 17.5 | — | 80% | 20 ✗ |
| Ryan Byrnes | 16.5 | — | 58% | 20 ✗ |
| Hunter Clark | 15.5 | — | 63% | 11 ✓ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | 27.5 | $1.80 | 47% | 26 ✓ |
| Jagga Smith | 26.5 | $1.92 | 60% | 21 ✓ |
| George Hewett | 24.5 | $1.89 | 52% | 26 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps | 24.5 | $1.91 | 35% | 26 ✗ |
| Oliver Florent | 22.5 | — | 67% | 25 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra | 21.5 | — | 63% | 24 ✗ |
| Cooper Lord | 20.5 | — | 52% | 18 ✓ |
| Billy Wilson | 19.5 | — | 55% | 21 ✗ |
| Blake Acres | 18.5 | — | 30% | 20 ✗ |
| Will Hayward | 17.5 | — | 68% | 19 ✗ |
| Ben Ainsworth | 17.5 | — | 55% | 12 ✓ |
| Lachlan Cowan | 16.5 | — | 58% | 15 ✓ |
| Nick Haynes | 16.5 | — | 42% | 20 ✗ |
| Francis Evans | 15.5 | — | 74% | 22 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Kilda 1477 · Carlton 1615 · ELO difference: 138 in favour of Carlton

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | St Kilda | Carlton | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1231 (best 1231) | 1238 (best 1319) | Carlton +7 |
| Forwards | 1104 (best 1411) | 1241 (best 1444) | Carlton +137 |
| Defence | 1240 (best 1440) | 1230 (best 1366) | St Kilda +10 |
| Ruck | 1097 (best 1097) | 1196 (best 1196) | Carlton +99 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 40.2% | Carlton |
| 2 | Forward Line | 16.6% | St Kilda |
| 3 | Weather | 9.5% | St Kilda |
| 4 | Lineup Strength | 6.6% | St Kilda |
| 5 | Stat Profile | 5.7% | Carlton |
| 6 | Venue | 5.4% | Carlton |
| 7 | Ruck | 5.4% | St Kilda |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Carlton predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-st-kilda-v-carlton
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-09 12:01 UTC (latest tip update)