# GWS GIANTS v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 77 – 79 Gold Coast SUNS

_Gold Coast SUNS eclipse a gallant GWS GIANTS._

Half time: 25 – 35 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 83% / Gold Coast SUNS 17% · Corroboree Group Oval Manuka · Sun, 09 Aug, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Harvey Thomas (11'), Max Gruzewski (17' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Toby Greene (52' ×2), Aaron Cadman (70' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Callum Brown (77' Tipped ⚡), Stephen Coniglio (67'), Jake Stringer (75' Tipped ⚡), Josaia Delana (98') · Gold Coast SUNS: Ben King (3' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Lachlan Gulbin (20'), Touk Miller (30' ×3), Wil Powell (62'), Bailey Humphrey (72' ×2), Jed Walter (98' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 83% | Lost |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 17% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 28.9 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Aug 2026, 09:28 pm · Last updated: 9 Aug 2026, 04:02 pm_

GWS GIANTS 77–79 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 22 at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Gold Coast SUNS edged GWS GIANTS 79–77 at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. The numbers suggest a close contest, but the SUNS defied expectations. The model had GWS as favourites by 28.9 points, with an 83% chance of winning. Reality was different.

By three-quarter time, the SUNS led 68–56. GWS pushed hard in the final term but couldn't close the gap. The SUNS' defence, rated at 1171, held firm when it mattered most. They maintained composure and secured a narrow victory.

The stats highlight the SUNS' dominance in key areas. Their ruck division was superior, winning 63 hit-outs to GWS's 42. In the midfield, the SUNS led clearances 53 to 45. They also controlled possession, with 353 disposals to GWS's 321, and a higher disposal efficiency of 63.2%.

GWS had more inside 50s, 58 to the SUNS' 48, but the SUNS were more effective, marking 8 times inside 50 compared to GWS's 5. Despite GWS having 85 intercepts to the SUNS' 83, it wasn't enough to turn the tide. The numbers reveal missed opportunities for GWS and the SUNS' solid defence.

GWS came into the match with better recent form, having won three of their last five games. They averaged 84.4 points and had a higher tackle count, averaging 66.2 compared to the SUNS' 47.8. But the SUNS, on a five-game losing streak, were determined to change their fortunes.

GWS's midfield, rated at 1154, couldn't gain the upper hand against the SUNS' 1170. Their defence, rated at 1263, struggled against a SUNS team that usually conceded 106.6 points on average. The game was a reminder that matches are won on the field, not on paper. Today, the field belonged to the Gold Coast.

The upset highlights the unpredictability of footy. Pre-game models provide a guide but can miss the finer details. The model correctly predicted the combined total would exceed 146.5 points, but the SUNS' victory was unexpected. It was a win for the SUNS and a reminder that surprises are part of the game.

GWS entered with confidence and a modelled win expectation but faced a SUNS team eager to break their losing streak. Mistakes and the SUNS' clean execution left GWS reflecting on what might have been. It's a humbling result for the GIANTS and a moment of redemption for the SUNS. Back to the drawing board for GWS.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 16 | 9 | 31 | 21 | 77 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 22 | 13 | 33 | 11 | 79 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| 321 | Disposals | **353** |
| **171** | Contested poss. | 167 |
| 45 | Clearances | **53** |
| **58** | Inside 50s | 48 |
| 36 | Marks | **60** |
| 5 | Marks inside 50 | **8** |
| 85 | Tackles | **90** |
| 42 | Hit-outs | **63** |
| **85** | Intercepts | 83 |
| 55.5% | Disposal eff. | **63.2%** |

**Model Report Card**

Gold Coast SUNS defied the model's 83% prediction for GWS GIANTS, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 28.9 but the actual margin was 2 points. The model went 1/4 on this match. The over 146.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.34 (edge +8.1%) — model probability 82.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -17.5 @ $1.90 (edge +11.4%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 146.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 29 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on GWS GIANTS here: 83% to see off Gold Coast SUNS. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: GWS GIANTS sit 200 ELO points clear, 1540 to 1341. Form leans GWS GIANTS's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Gold Coast SUNS.

GWS GIANTS own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Recent Form and Lineup Strength. The margin model has GWS GIANTS by 28.9, with the two sides combining for about 168. GWS GIANTS to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 84.4pts | Avg Score | 83.4pts |
| 86.0pts | Avg Conceded | 106.6pts |
| -1.6pts | Avg Margin | -23.2pts |
| 381.2 | Disposals | 359.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 66.2 | Tackles | 47.8 |
| 34.8 | Clearances | 35.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | R17 W · R18 W · R19 L · R20 L · R21 W | 84.4 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | R17 L · R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L | 83.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — GWS GIANTS lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Gold Coast SUNS | 83 – 63 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2025 | R23 | Gold Coast SUNS | 76 – 111 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2025 | R15 | GWS GIANTS | 106 – 99 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2024 | R19 | GWS GIANTS | 89 – 50 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2024 | R4 | Gold Coast SUNS | 89 – 117 | GWS GIANTS |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 209 · 183 | 203 · 184 |
| Goal Assists | 5.4/g | 5.5/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 121/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.8/g | 23.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10/g | 9.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66% | 68.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 42 · 61 | 34 · 68 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 105/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.6/g | 17.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.9% | 70.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 18 | 23 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 142/g | 141/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.1/g | 13.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.3% | 83.2% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Forwards 4.71/g (lg 4.47) +5% · Midfielders 2.62/g (lg 2.49) +5% · Defenders 1.09/g (lg 1.07) +2%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.52) +6% · Defenders 1.13/g (lg 1.07) +6% · Key Forwards 3.74/g (lg 3.86) -3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 40 in 20g | 22/10g (5·1·3·0·1·7·1·0·1·3) | 25/12g | 17/7g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 29 in 18g | 23/10g (3·0·5·3·2·3·2·3·0·2) | 27/16g | 60/34g | 78% | — | 🏉 52' 66' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 26 in 15g | 16/10g (3·1·4·1·2·2·1·0·1·1) | 9/6g | 15/11g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' 79' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 16 in 15g | 15/10g (2·3·0·0·3·1·3·1·1·1) | 7/4g | 11/9g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | 16 in 12g | 14/10g (1·1·2·2·3·3·0·1·1·0) | 3/1g | 0/2g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 87' |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 12 in 18g | 9/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·3·3) | 12/15g | 17/31g | 34% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 11 in 16g | 6/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 4/10g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 7 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 1/4g | 2/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 7/8g | 32% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/2g | 1/3g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/12g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 7/12g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 12/13g | 14/24g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hamilton | FWD | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/17g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/18g | 3/28g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josaia Delana | FWD | 0 in 6g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 98' |
| – | Nicholas Madden | RUC | 0 in 6g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/16g | 2% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 53 in 20g | 20/10g (1·4·3·1·1·3·1·1·3·2) | 14/10g | 0/1g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.75 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 82' |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 28 in 15g | 19/10g (3·2·1·2·2·1·3·0·2·3) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 98' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 26 in 18g | 15/10g (0·2·2·0·4·0·2·1·1·3) | 5/10g | 0/3g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 22 in 18g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 12/10g | 1/2g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 19 in 17g | 12/10g (1·0·0·1·0·3·1·1·3·2) | 3/5g | 0/1g | 60% | — | 🏉 72' 72' |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 14 in 20g | 8/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·1·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 12 in 12g | 12/10g (4·3·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 55% | — | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 8 in 20g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/15g | 0/2g | 38% | — | 🏉 30' 44' 94' |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 7 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 7 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Zeke Uwland | MID | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/8g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jake Rogers | FWD | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Ned Moyle | RUC | 4 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/1g | 12% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | Lachlan Gulbin | FWD | 3 in 8g | 3/9g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 15/16g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jy Farrar | FWD | 1 in 2g | 11/10g (3·2·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Ballard | DEF | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | 28.5 | $1.91 | 48% | 23 ✓ |
| Lachie Whitfield | 28.5 | $1.91 | 62% | 26 ✓ |
| Lachlan Ash | 27.5 | $1.90 | — | — |
| Finn Callaghan | 24.5 | — | 47% | — |
| Toby Greene | 21.5 | — | 70% | 18 ✓ |
| Connor Idun | 20.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 11 ✓ |
| Xavier O'Halloran | 20.5 | — | 81% | 15 ✓ |
| Harvey Thomas | 18.5 | — | 58% | 20 ✗ |
| Alex Davies | 18.5 | — | 78% | — |
| Stephen Coniglio | 17.5 | — | 53% | 19 ✗ |
| Harrison Himmelberg | 17.5 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Angwin | 17.5 | — | 63% | 14 ✓ |
| Harry Rowston | 16.5 | — | 75% | 22 ✗ |
| Jack Ough | 16.5 | — | 98% | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 27.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 24 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 40 ✗ |
| John Noble | 25.5 | — | 63% | 16 ✓ |
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.89 | 63% | 14 ✓ |
| Touk Miller | 22.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 23 ✗ |
| Zeke Uwland | 21.5 | — | 79% | 13 ✓ |
| Bodhi Uwland | 20.5 | — | 61% | 20 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli | 19.5 | — | 48% | 21 ✗ |
| Mac Andrew | 18.5 | — | 71% | 13 ✓ |
| Sam Clohesy | 18.5 | — | 75% | 17 ✓ |
| Wil Powell | 16.5 | — | 54% | 18 ✗ |
| Joel Jeffrey | 15.5 | — | 53% | 14 ✓ |
| Bailey Humphrey | 14.5 | — | 72% | 19 ✗ |
| Charlie Ballard | 13.5 | — | 89% | 10 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — GWS GIANTS 1540 · Gold Coast SUNS 1341 · ELO difference: 200 in favour of GWS GIANTS

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | GWS GIANTS | Gold Coast SUNS | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1154 (best 1154) | 1170 (best 1170) | Gold Coast SUNS +16 |
| Forwards | 1075 (best 1294) | 1068 (best 1316) | GWS GIANTS +7 |
| Defence | 1263 (best 1429) | 1171 (best 1365) | GWS GIANTS +92 |
| Ruck | 1134 (best 1215) | 1011 (best 1022) | GWS GIANTS +122 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 44.6% | GWS GIANTS |
| 2 | Recent Form | 16.3% | GWS GIANTS |
| 3 | Stat Profile | 11.4% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 4 | Lineup Strength | 7.5% | GWS GIANTS |
| 5 | Weather | 5.4% | GWS GIANTS |
| 6 | Defence | 4.4% | GWS GIANTS |
| 7 | Ruck | 3.6% | GWS GIANTS |

**Model Confidence: 83%** — GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 29 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-09 06:02 UTC (latest tip update)