# Geelong Cats v Essendon — AFL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Geelong Cats v Essendon
Sat, 08 Aug, 04:35 pm AEST · GMHBA Stadium · Round 22

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.01 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 93.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +64.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 183.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 63 · Predicted total: 168

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 98.0pts | Avg Score | 57.6pts |
| 90.6pts | Avg Conceded | 121.4pts |
| 7.4pts | Avg Margin | -63.8pts |
| 369.0 | Disposals | 330.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 51.4 | Tackles | 52.4 |
| 38.4 | Clearances | 31.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | R17 L · R18 L · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W | 98.0 |
| Essendon | R17 L · R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 L | 57.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-08 09:41 UTC (latest tip update)