# Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn — AFL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn
Fri, 07 Aug, 07:40 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 22

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.68 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 58.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -5.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 186.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 8 · Predicted total: 169

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 113.8pts | Avg Score | 109.2pts |
| 90.0pts | Avg Conceded | 67.6pts |
| 23.8pts | Avg Margin | 41.6pts |
| 393.2 | Disposals | 403.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 52.8 | Tackles | 61.2 |
| 41.0 | Clearances | 39.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | R17 W · R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 L | 113.8 |
| Hawthorn | R17 L · R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W | 109.2 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-07 12:26 UTC (latest tip update)