# Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn — AFL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 125 – 58 Hawthorn

_Brisbane Lions run riot over Hawthorn._

Half time: 56 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 58% / Hawthorn 42% · Gabba · Fri, 07 Aug, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Logan Morris (19' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Eric Hipwood (33' ×2), Kai Lohmann (53' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Charlie Cameron (58' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Draper (68'), Daniel Annable (92'), Ryan Lester (85'), Cam Rayner (90') · Hawthorn: Jack Gunston (12' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Massimo DAmbrosio (48'), Jarman Impey (63'), Connor Macdonald (73'), Dylan Moore (91'), Josh Weddle (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 58% | Won |
| Hawthorn | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.3 predicted → 67 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Aug 2026, 09:28 pm · Last updated: 7 Aug 2026, 10:26 pm_

Brisbane Lions 125–58 Hawthorn in AFL Round 22 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The match turned decisively at the start of the second half. Brisbane Lions, up 56–28 at half-time, truly took charge in the third quarter. They extended their lead to 90–44 by three-quarter time. The Lions then added 35 more points in the final quarter, securing a dominant 125–58 victory over Hawthorn at the Gabba.

Despite Hawthorn's strengths in certain areas, their efforts didn't translate into points. Their ruck division excelled, winning 40 hit-outs to Brisbane's 26. They also led in clearances, with 43 to Brisbane's 32. But controlling the midfield wasn't enough to keep them in the contest.

Brisbane capitalised on their strengths. They executed 394 disposals, outpacing Hawthorn's 349. Brisbane's ability to move the ball forward was evident, with 65 inside 50s compared to Hawthorn's 50. This forward pressure was crucial in building their substantial lead.

Inside the forward 50, Brisbane Lions were in control. They managed 16 marks inside the attacking arc, contrasting with Hawthorn's 11. This efficiency in the final third turned an advantage into a blowout. The Lions were more efficient when it counted, overshadowing Hawthorn's efforts.

Their defensive play was another key component. The Lions executed 73 intercepts, highlighting their ability to read Hawthorn's attacks and shut them down before they became real threats. Compared to Hawthorn's 56 intercepts, it was a textbook example of defensive positioning and anticipation.

Hawthorn came into this match with similar recent form, having won four of their last five games, just like Brisbane. Their previous performances had them conceding merely 67.6 points on average, but Brisbane blew past that with ease. The Lions were averaging 113.8 points in their last five, showing that their offensive capabilities were no fluke.

The model underestimated Brisbane's potential dominance, predicting an 8.3-point win for the Lions. Instead, the Lions demonstrated why they're hard to handle at home, finishing with a margin far beyond expectations. While the prediction missed on margin, it was spot on with the Lions' likelihood of triumph, giving them a 58% chance of success.

This wasn't just a win for Brisbane; it was a comprehensive statement. Hawthorn was simply outplayed in key areas, despite having positional strengths rated higher coming into the match. Brisbane's strategy and execution were unmatched, and they showcased why they're a formidable force in the AFL.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 15 | 41 | 34 | 35 | 125 |
| Hawthorn | 9 | 19 | 16 | 14 | 58 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| **394** | Disposals | 349 |
| **131** | Contested poss. | 120 |
| 32 | Clearances | **43** |
| **65** | Inside 50s | 50 |
| **109** | Marks | 78 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **50** | Tackles | 49 |
| 26 | Hit-outs | **40** |
| **73** | Intercepts | 56 |
| 73.6% | Disposal eff. | **74.2%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 58% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.3 but the actual margin was 67 points. Brisbane Lions led 56–28 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 67. The model went 3/4 on this match. Brisbane Lions covered the 5.5-point line. The under 186.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.68 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 58.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -5.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 186.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 8 · Predicted total: 169

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Brisbane Lions are the call at 58%, but Hawthorn stay live at 42%. The ratings say otherwise: Hawthorn sit 112 ELO points clear, 1711 to 1599, so the model is backing Brisbane Lions against the ratings gap.

On paper Hawthorn shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Recent Form, Forward Line and Stat Profile. The model still sides with Brisbane Lions, which says Venue and Lineup Strength carry the most weight. The margin model has Brisbane Lions by 8.3, with the two sides combining for about 169. Lean Brisbane Lions, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 113.8pts | Avg Score | 109.2pts |
| 90.0pts | Avg Conceded | 67.6pts |
| 23.8pts | Avg Margin | 41.6pts |
| 393.2 | Disposals | 403.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 52.8 | Tackles | 61.2 |
| 41.0 | Clearances | 39.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | R17 W · R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 L | 113.8 |
| Hawthorn | R17 L · R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W | 109.2 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 229 · 192 | 229 · 168 |
| Goal Assists | 5.5/g | 5.3/g |
| Disposals | 92/g | 120/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.7/g | 22.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.7/g | 10.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.3% | 68% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 70 · 64 | 38 · 59 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 168/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 26.5/g | 20.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.8% | 71.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 13 | 23 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 139/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.7/g | 14.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.6% | 81.4% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.49) -4% · Forwards 4.1/g (lg 4.46) -8% · Key Forwards 3.44/g (lg 3.86) -11%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Key Forwards 3.85/g (lg 3.86) +0% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.52) -2% · Forwards 4.27/g (lg 4.46) -4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 47 in 19g | 24/10g (1·1·7·3·3·3·2·1·3·0) | 5/3g | 56/28g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 84% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' 23' 35' 44' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 43 in 20g | 20/10g (2·2·2·1·2·2·2·2·3·2) | 25/15g | 191/100g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' 92' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 41 in 20g | 23/10g (3·0·0·1·2·5·3·4·3·2) | 4/3g | 44/34g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' 83' 86' 74' 79' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 30 in 19g | 15/10g (0·1·0·2·2·3·2·1·3·1) | 4/9g | 94/91g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 22 in 20g | 11/10g (3·0·0·0·3·1·0·1·2·1) | 17/10g | 85/91g | 72% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | 17 in 14g | 12/10g (2·0·1·2·2·2·2·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 14/32g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 14 in 20g | 11/10g (0·2·0·2·0·0·3·0·2·2) | 2/3g | 21/36g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 13 in 8g | 13/10g (0·0·1·1·2·3·3·1·1·1) | 2/7g | 14/12g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 13 in 19g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 4/5g | 10/14g | 60% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 10 in 20g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 12/21g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 7 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 10/30g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 7 in 7g | 8/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·2·1·1·0) | 19/9g | 134/102g | 66% | — | 🏉 33' 79' |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 8/18g | 39/89g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 45/98g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 13/41g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 3 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 8/50g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/16g | 132/158g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 8/47g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Annable | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 10/95g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 4/125g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/45g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 23/120g | 2% | — | 🏉 85' |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 52 in 18g | 32/10g (3·3·2·2·3·3·3·5·3·5) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 94% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 49 in 14g | 33/10g (3·5·0·6·5·1·3·1·7·2) | 25/14g | 16/12g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 96% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 12' 40' 94' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 30 in 19g | 16/10g (2·1·3·0·1·2·1·1·5·0) | 12/7g | 3/3g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 83% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 28 in 15g | 21/10g (1·2·3·2·2·5·1·1·2·2) | 13/8g | 6/5g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 88% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 19 in 20g | 10/10g (0·1·0·1·2·2·3·0·1·0) | 7/6g | 4/2g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 18 in 19g | 8/10g (1·0·0·4·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 9/6g | 1/1g | 56% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 14 in 20g | 6/10g (0·1·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/4g | 0/1g | 54% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 9 in 20g | 9/10g (4·4·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Will Day | MID | 7 in 8g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·2·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 6 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 5 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Ned Reeves | RUC | 5 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 9/13g | 7/6g | 20% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 4 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 4 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam Butler | FWD | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (1·2·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/2g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/10g | 5/10g | 8% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 2/4g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 5/10g | 8% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.89 | 63% | 39 ✗ |
| Lachie Neale | 27.5 | $1.89 | 47% | 35 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 25 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey | 21.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 21 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 21.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 19 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 15 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 21.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 24 ✗ |
| Cameron Mackenzie | 20.5 | $1.87 | — | — |
| Connor MacDonald | 20.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 13 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 17.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 27 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry | 17.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 22 ✗ |
| Cameron Rayner | 16.5 | $1.80 | — | — |
| Daniel Annable | 15.5 | — | — | 9 ✓ |
| Harris Andrews | 15.5 | — | 60% | 14 ✓ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 18 ✓ |
| Jai Newcombe | 25.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 25 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 22.5 | — | 56% | 14 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 22.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 28 ✗ |
| James Sicily | 21.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 18 ✓ |
| Will Day ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 16 ✓ |
| Blake Hardwick ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 73% | 19 ✓ |
| Josh Battle | 19.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 20 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan | 18.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 20 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 18.5 | $1.87 | 40% | 22 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $2.00 | 63% | 22 ✗ |
| Harry Morrison | 17.5 | — | 56% | 16 ✓ |
| Nick Watson | 12.5 | — | 59% | 9 ✓ |
| Lloyd Meek | 12.5 | — | 58% | 12 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Hawthorn hold the ELO advantage (1711 vs 1599), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.68). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Brisbane Lions 1599 · Hawthorn 1711 · ELO difference: 112 in favour of Hawthorn

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Brisbane Lions | Hawthorn | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1212 (best 1297) | 1218 (best 1254) | Hawthorn +5 |
| Forwards | 1119 (best 1334) | 1218 (best 1423) | Hawthorn +99 |
| Defence | 1145 (best 1335) | 1225 (best 1412) | Hawthorn +80 |
| Ruck | 1069 (best 1079) | 1133 (best 1235) | Hawthorn +64 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Form | 28.3% | Hawthorn |
| 2 | Forward Line | 15.0% | Hawthorn |
| 3 | Stat Profile | 12.0% | Hawthorn |
| 4 | Defence | 11.4% | Hawthorn |
| 5 | Venue | 11.1% | Brisbane Lions |
| 6 | Lineup Strength | 7.7% | Brisbane Lions |
| 7 | Weather | 4.2% | Brisbane Lions |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 169 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-07 12:26 UTC (latest tip update)