# Adelaide Crows v Richmond — AFL Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 63 – 54 Richmond

_Adelaide Crows swoop on Richmond in a tight one._

Half time: 29 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 91% / Richmond 9% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 08 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Taylor Walker (12' 1st Tipped 🎯), Brayden Cook (31'), Jordan Dawson (41' Tipped ⚡), Callum Ah Chee (71' ×2), Izak Rankine (84' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (33m 1s)Taylor Walker (61'), Zac Taylor (85') · Richmond: Mykelti Lefau (15' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Steely Green (51'), Seth Campbell (54' ×3), Hugo Ralphsmith (68')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 91% | Won |
| Richmond | 9% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 55.7 predicted → 9 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 22, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Aug 2026, 09:28 pm · Last updated: 8 Aug 2026, 10:28 pm_

Adelaide Crows 63–54 Richmond in AFL Round 22 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide Crows turned the match in their favour during the third quarter. They entered the final change leading Richmond 49–45. After a neck-and-neck first half, where they led by just one point at 29–28, it was this third-quarter edge that set them up for a 63–54 victory at Adelaide Oval.

The Crows' midfield control was key. They won the contested possession battle 148 to 136, translating into 358 disposals to Richmond’s 317. This ball control allowed Adelaide to dictate the pace, keeping Richmond on the backfoot.

Richmond showed proficiency inside 50, managing 10 marks to Adelaide’s 6. However, the Crows' tackling pressure made the difference. They recorded 66 tackles, limiting Richmond’s scoring opportunities. Despite their inside 50 advantage, Richmond struggled to convert these entries into a winning score.

Both teams were evenly matched in some areas: 39 to 38 in clearances and nearly identical in disposal efficiency. Yet, Adelaide’s defensive resilience shone through. Their defence, rated 1179 to Richmond's 1165, helped limit the Tigers to just 54 points, below their recent scoring average of 64.2 points.

Adelaide came into the match in strong form, having won four of their last five with an average winning margin of 31.6 points. This contrasted sharply with Richmond's poor run, marked by four losses in their last five and an average losing margin of 32.8 points. The Tigers managed only one win in that stretch, which wasn't enough against a well-drilled Adelaide side.

The game was expected to be high-scoring, with Alphr’s model predicting a combined total of 170 points and a comfortable win for the Crows by nearly 56 points. Yet, it ended with a modest total of 117 points and a tighter margin of 9 points, highlighting the gritty nature of the contest.

In the end, the numbers tell the story. Adelaide’s superior tackling, ball movement, and contested work all contributed to a hard-fought win. Richmond, for all their efforts, couldn’t match the defensive tenacity and midfield grit that the Crows brought to Adelaide Oval.

Alphr's model got the winner right with a 91% predicted probability for Adelaide, but missed the mark on the magnitude of their victory. This wasn't about the fireworks of a blowout win; it was a battle of wills, settled in the trenches and decided by key moments, particularly that crucial third quarter.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 9 | 20 | 20 | 14 | 63 |
| Richmond | 14 | 14 | 17 | 9 | 54 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **358** | Disposals | 317 |
| **148** | Contested poss. | 136 |
| 38 | Clearances | **39** |
| 50 | Inside 50s | **51** |
| **68** | Marks | 61 |
| 6 | Marks inside 50 | **10** |
| **66** | Tackles | 58 |
| **42** | Hit-outs | 39 |
| 71 | Intercepts | **76** |
| 68.2% | Disposal eff. | **68.8%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 91% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 55.7 but the actual margin was 9 points. The game's 117 points came in 53 points lower than the predicted 170. Adelaide Crows led 29–28 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 9. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.02 (edge -7.0%) — model probability 91.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -55.5 @ $1.90 (edge +0.2%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 157.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 56 · Predicted total: 170

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Adelaide Crows here: 91% to see off Richmond. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Adelaide Crows sit 533 ELO points clear, 1654 to 1121. Form leans Adelaide Crows' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Richmond.

Adelaide Crows own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Recent Form and Lineup Strength. The margin model has Adelaide Crows by 55.7, with the two sides combining for about 170. Adelaide Crows to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 106.6pts | Avg Score | 64.2pts |
| 75.0pts | Avg Conceded | 97.0pts |
| 31.6pts | Avg Margin | -32.8pts |
| 369.8 | Disposals | 344.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 73.2 | Tackles | 49.0 |
| 41.2 | Clearances | 37.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | R17 W · R18 W · R19 W · R20 L · R21 W | 106.6 |
| Richmond | R17 L · R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 W | 64.2 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 188 · 159 | 130 · 201 |
| Goal Assists | 6.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 110/g | 86/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.8/g | 15.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9/g | 7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.3% | 69.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 77 · 51 | 35 · 83 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 113/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.3/g | 18.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.4% | 71% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 16 | 20 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.5/g | 12.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.9% | 78.8% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Rucks 0.67/g (lg 0.52) +29% · Key Forwards 4.95/g (lg 3.86) +28% · Midfielders 3.02/g (lg 2.47) +22%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.1/g (lg 1.07) +3% · Forwards 4.38/g (lg 4.49) -2% · Midfielders 2.19/g (lg 2.47) -11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 34 in 20g | 17/10g (1·0·4·3·1·1·3·1·1·2) | 10/5g | 78/51g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 83% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 29 in 17g | 17/10g (1·1·0·3·1·1·0·2·3·5) | 8/4g | 77/55g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 84% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $7.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 27 in 20g | 14/10g (0·2·1·1·1·3·2·0·1·3) | 3/9g | 82/87g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 24 in 14g | 19/10g (5·1·0·2·1·0·0·5·3·2) | 41/14g | 310/140g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 12' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 21 in 17g | 13/10g (1·3·3·2·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 43/65g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 41' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 17 in 17g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·3) | 5/5g | 75/46g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 84' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 12 in 19g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 7/10g | 22/38g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 10 in 18g | 6/10g (1·1·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/27g | 30% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 7 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 10/26g | 34% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 6 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 7/29g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 5 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·2) | 5/10g | 8/8g | 58% | — | 🏉 71' 86' |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 11/26g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Billy Dowling | MID | 3 in 2g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·3) | 1/1g | 3/5g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 8/27g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 9/54g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Archie Ludowyke | KF | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Hall-Kahan | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Ryan | DEF | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/42g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/34g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/50g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 9/82g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 18/147g | 2% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 18 in 18g | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·0·2·1·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 69% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.72 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' 26' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 16 in 12g | 14/10g (1·1·3·2·2·0·0·1·2·2) | 21/13g | 24/11g | 84% | — | — |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 14 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 5/3g | 40% | — | 🏉 54' 62' 67' |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 13 in 10g | 13/10g (2·1·0·2·1·1·1·1·1·3) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 81% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.68 AI 62% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 13 in 17g | 6/10g (2·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 46% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 13 in 18g | 9/10g (0·0·2·0·4·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/11g | 3/14g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/8g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/4g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/4g | 0/4g | 32% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 5/16g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/13g | 1/16g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 4/12g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/19g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Retschko | MID | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Taj Hotton | FWD | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Judson Clarke | MID | no games | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·1·2·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Kye Annand | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Samson Ryan | RUC | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 4/4g | 31% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | 27.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 35 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 36 ✗ |
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | — | 34% | 18 ✓ |
| Sam Berry | 23.5 | $1.89 | 58% | 24 ✗ |
| James Peatling | 21.5 | — | 66% | 20 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 21.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 18 ✓ |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | 21.5 | — | 72% | 17 ✓ |
| Daniel Curtin | 19.5 | — | 64% | 14 ✓ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | 18.5 | — | 61% | 19 ✗ |
| Billy Dowling | 18.5 | — | 62% | 13 ✓ |
| Mark Keane | 18.5 | — | 63% | 12 ✓ |
| Isaac Cumming | 17.5 | — | 58% | 15 ✓ |
| Brayden Cook | 17.5 | — | 60% | 20 ✗ |
| Oscar Ryan | 17.5 | — | — | 13 ✓ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 25.5 | $1.84 | 59% | 20 ✓ |
| Jack Ross ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 29 ✗ |
| Jayden Short | 20.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 16 ✓ |
| Dion Prestia ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.91 | 65% | 15 ✓ |
| Sam Banks | 19.5 | — | 78% | 12 ✓ |
| Tyler Sonsie | 18.5 | — | 79% | 6 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 17.5 | — | 72% | 19 ✗ |
| Patrick Retschko | 17.5 | — | 49% | 24 ✗ |
| Sam Lalor ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 82% | 3 ✓ |
| Toby Nankervis | 17.5 | — | 69% | 15 ✓ |
| Tom Brown | 17.5 | — | 75% | 18 ✗ |
| Nathan Broad | 16.5 | — | 76% | 15 ✓ |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | 16.5 | — | 71% | 14 ✓ |
| Seth Campbell | 16.5 | — | 72% | 12 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Adelaide Crows 1654 · Richmond 1121 · ELO difference: 533 in favour of Adelaide Crows

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Adelaide Crows | Richmond | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1178 (best 1311) | 1171 (best 1308) | Adelaide Crows +7 |
| Forwards | 1258 (best 1453) | 1063 (best 1376) | Adelaide Crows +196 |
| Defence | 1179 (best 1266) | 1165 (best 1312) | Adelaide Crows +14 |
| Ruck | 1000 (best 1000) | 1148 (best 1296) | Richmond +148 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 52.3% | Adelaide Crows |
| 2 | Recent Form | 14.1% | Adelaide Crows |
| 3 | Ruck | 7.8% | Richmond |
| 4 | Lineup Strength | 7.6% | Adelaide Crows |
| 5 | Stat Profile | 4.3% | Richmond |
| 6 | Weather | 4.2% | Adelaide Crows |
| 7 | Defence | 3.9% | Adelaide Crows |

**Model Confidence: 91%** — Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 56 points · Predicted total: 170 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-08 12:28 UTC (latest tip update)