# St Kilda v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### St Kilda v Sydney Swans
Sat, 01 Aug, 01:05 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 21

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.50 (edge +0.0%) — model probability 66.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +13.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 11 · Predicted total: 170

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Kilda | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 86.6pts | Avg Score | 91.2pts |
| 74.0pts | Avg Conceded | 93.4pts |
| 12.6pts | Avg Margin | -2.2pts |
| 414.0 | Disposals | 362.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 65.6 | Tackles | 63.2 |
| 36.8 | Clearances | 34.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | R15 L · R17 W · R18 W · R19 L · R20 W | 86.6 |
| Sydney Swans | R16 L · R17 W · R18 L · R19 L · R20 W | 91.2 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-01 05:57 UTC (latest tip update)