# Richmond v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 84 – 73 West Coast Eagles

_Richmond survive a scare against West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 46 – 31 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 60% / West Coast Eagles 40% · MCG · Sun, 02 Aug, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Hugo Ralphsmith (14' ×2 1st), Jayden Short (15'), Jack Ross (23'), Sam Lalor (25' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Tim Taranto (44'), Tom Lynch (57' Tipped ⚡), Tyler Sonsie (78'), Final quarter (31m 58s)Tom Lynch (66'), Toby Nankervis (68') · West Coast Eagles: Jake Waterman (19' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Williams (31' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tom Cole (42'), Jobe Shanahan (91' Tipped ⚡), Liam Duggan (72'), Harvey Johnston (84'), Willem Duursma (95')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 60% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.4 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 21 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 July 2026, 07:21 pm · Last updated: 2 Aug 2026, 03:56 pm_

Richmond 84–73 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 21 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Richmond beat the West Coast Eagles 84–73 at the MCG. The final score suggests a comfortable win, but the Eagles' 38 clearances to Richmond's 30 show it was tighter than it looked. West Coast controlled much of the ground play, even if they couldn't convert it into a win.

Richmond's victory was largely due to their ruck dominance, winning 47 hit-outs to 37. This gave them first use of the ball more often, setting up their attack. Yet, West Coast pushed inside their forward 50 more frequently, with 52 entries to Richmond's 45. The Eagles' pressure was evident, securing 14 marks inside 50 compared to Richmond's 10.

At quarter time, Richmond led 28 to 18. By half time, they extended their lead to 46 to 31. The gap was 12 points at three-quarter time, with Richmond ahead 60 to 48. West Coast was still in the contest, but Richmond's defence, rated superior before the match, held firm. Their defensive rating of 1308 over West Coast's 1187 proved crucial.

Disposals were closely matched, with Richmond totalling 344 to West Coast's 327. Richmond had a slight edge in contested possessions, 138 against the Eagles' 133. Both sides were gritty in defence, with Richmond intercepting 66 times to West Coast's 65. It was a game of fine margins, and Richmond's precision held up under pressure.

Richmond's positional strengths didn't translate to clear dominance in all areas. Their forward line, rated 898 against West Coast's 941, didn't fire consistently. However, the ruck division delivered when it counted. The midfield contest was hard-fought, with Richmond's midfield slightly ahead in ratings, 1164 to West Coast's 1120.

Alphr's model predicted a Richmond win with a 60% probability, which was accurate. The predicted margin of 6.4 points underestimated the final result by a small margin, but it was broadly within range. The expected combined score of 168 was optimistic given the teams' recent form, though Richmond's average score of 61.8 prior had them punching above their weight.

In the end, Richmond covered the pre-match line and landed within the 1-39 margin band, showing the model's accuracy. Despite not winning any of their last five matches, Richmond capitalised on their chances. Against a similarly winless West Coast, the 11-point victory is something to build on.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 28 | 18 | 14 | 24 | 84 |
| West Coast Eagles | 18 | 13 | 17 | 25 | 73 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **344** | Disposals | 327 |
| **138** | Contested poss. | 133 |
| 30 | Clearances | **38** |
| 45 | Inside 50s | **52** |
| **63** | Marks | 59 |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| 71 | Tackles | **73** |
| **47** | Hit-outs | 37 |
| **66** | Intercepts | 65 |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Richmond to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 6.4 was reasonable against the actual 11-point result. The model went 3/4 on this match. Richmond covered the 2.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Richmond to win @ $2.04 (edge +11.2%) — model probability 60.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +2.5 @ $1.90 (edge +8.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Richmond 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 167.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 6 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Richmond are the call at 60%, but West Coast Eagles stay live at 40%. The ratings say otherwise: West Coast Eagles sit 62 ELO points clear, 1148 to 1087, so the model is backing Richmond against the ratings gap.

On paper West Coast Eagles shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Line, Stat Profile and Lineup Strength. The model still sides with Richmond, which says Weather and Midfield carry the most weight. The margin model has Richmond by 6.4, with the two sides combining for about 168. Lean Richmond, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Richmond | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 61.8pts | Avg Score | 70.0pts |
| 97.2pts | Avg Conceded | 93.8pts |
| -35.4pts | Avg Margin | -23.8pts |
| 334.0 | Disposals | 311.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 45.4 | Tackles | 59.4 |
| 34.6 | Clearances | 36.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 0W–5L | 61.8 |
| West Coast Eagles | 0W–5L | 70.0 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 122 · 194 | 109 · 190 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposals | 86/g | 73/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.5/g | 11.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.9/g | 7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.5% | 69.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 32 · 82 | 56 · 66 |
| Goal Assists | 2.1/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 112/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.3/g | 23.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71% | 68.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 14 | 14 · 22 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.4/g | 11.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79% | 80.8% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Midfielders 3.42/g (lg 2.48) +38% · Rucks 0.71/g (lg 0.52) +37% · Forwards 5.32/g (lg 4.46) +19%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Rucks 0.68/g (lg 0.52) +31% · Key Forwards 4.95/g (lg 3.85) +29% · Midfielders 3.06/g (lg 2.48) +23%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 18 in 17g | 10/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·2·1·1·2) | 4/2g | 17/17g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 68% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 14 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 7/4g | 26/35g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 14 in 11g | 12/10g (0·1·1·3·2·2·0·0·1·2) | 36/12g | 163/77g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 57' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 12 in 17g | 9/10g (1·0·0·2·0·4·0·1·0·1) | 10/11g | 36/60g | 44% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 10 in 9g | 10/10g (0·2·1·0·2·1·1·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 16/12g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' 86' 93' |
| – | Sam Cumming | MID | 8 in 13g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/8g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 8/58g | 18% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 4/24g | 26% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 14/39g | 28% | — | 🏉 14' 48' |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 20/112g | 12% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 4/9g | 28/99g | 18% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/12g | 32/96g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 17/150g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Retschko | MID | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/34g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Taj Hotton | FWD | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/9g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 8/32g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 7/50g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kye Annand | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/15g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/104g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Samson Ryan | RUC | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 6/15g | 32% | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 41 in 19g | 23/10g (3·1·3·3·3·0·3·1·5·1) | 14/9g | 10/12g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 82' |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 26 in 19g | 17/10g (1·2·1·1·3·1·3·2·3·0) | 2/2g | 2/1g | 79% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 91' |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 13 in 19g | 6/10g (2·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/4g | 1/3g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 13 in 18g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 61% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 12 in 17g | 4/10g (0·3·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 11/20g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 8 in 15g | 6/10g (2·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 5/7g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 7 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/8g | 0/9g | 24% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 5 in 19g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.72 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 31' 82' |
| – | Milan Murdock | FWD | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (1·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.78 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cooper Duff-Tytler | KF | 3 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 55% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harvey Johnston | FWD | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 29/73g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/15g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/13g | 21/24g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/15g | 0% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Marcus Herbert | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 32 ✗ |
| Jack Ross | 23.5 | $1.86 | 59% | 27 ✗ |
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.84 | 66% | 17 ✓ |
| Dion Prestia ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 65% | 16 ✓ |
| Sam Banks | 20.5 | — | 82% | 20 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 18.5 | — | 73% | 16 ✓ |
| Tyler Sonsie | 18.5 | — | 76% | 20 ✗ |
| Sam Cumming | 18.5 | — | 65% | 5 ✓ |
| Kane McAuliffe | 18.5 | — | 45% | — |
| Patrick Retschko | 18.5 | — | 53% | 24 ✗ |
| Liam Baker | 18.5 | $1.92 | 44% | — |
| Sam Lalor | 18.5 | — | 87% | 13 ✓ |
| Seth Campbell | 17.5 | — | 71% | 13 ✓ |
| Toby Nankervis | 17.5 | — | 63% | 19 ✗ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | 25.5 | $1.86 | 53% | 34 ✗ |
| Tim Kelly | 25.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 25 ✓ |
| Tom McCarthy | 23.5 | $1.95 | 52% | 22 ✓ |
| Marcus Herbert | 22.5 | — | 69% | 34 ✗ |
| Jack Graham | 20.5 | — | 68% | 18 ✓ |
| Willem Duursma | 18.5 | — | 45% | 11 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 18.5 | — | 44% | 12 ✓ |
| Ryan Maric | 17.5 | — | 40% | 15 ✓ |
| Brady Hough | 16.5 | — | 77% | 13 ✓ |
| Milan Murdock | 15.5 | — | 59% | 12 ✓ |
| Bailey J. Williams | 14.5 | — | 60% | 13 ✓ |
| Elliot Yeo | 14.5 | — | 48% | 22 ✗ |
| Brandon Starcevich | 14.5 | — | 72% | 10 ✓ |
| Bo Allan | 14.5 | — | 43% | 9 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Richmond 1087 · West Coast Eagles 1148 · ELO difference: 62 in favour of West Coast Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Richmond | West Coast Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1164 (best 1318) | 1120 (best 1120) | Richmond +44 |
| Forwards | 898 (best 1016) | 941 (best 1120) | West Coast Eagles +43 |
| Defence | 1308 (best 1534) | 1187 (best 1461) | Richmond +121 |
| Ruck | 1075 (best 1149) | 1097 (best 1195) | West Coast Eagles +23 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forward Line | 32.6% | West Coast Eagles |
| 2 | Stat Profile | 15.3% | West Coast Eagles |
| 3 | Lineup Strength | 10.1% | West Coast Eagles |
| 4 | Weather | 10.0% | Richmond |
| 5 | Ruck | 7.2% | West Coast Eagles |
| 6 | Midfield | 6.3% | Richmond |
| 7 | Defence | 6.0% | Richmond |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Richmond predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-02 05:56 UTC (latest tip update)