# Port Adelaide v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 63 – 75 GWS GIANTS

_GWS GIANTS hold off a fast-finishing Port Adelaide._

Half time: 40 – 42 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 42% / GWS GIANTS 58% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 01 Aug, 06:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Jason Horne-Francis (6' 1st Tipped ⚡), Todd Marshall (9' ×2), Miles Bergman (42'), Mitch Georgiades (44' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Zadow (49'), Xavier Bamert (83') · GWS GIANTS: Jake Stringer (12' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Aaron Cadman (24' Tipped ⚡), Ryan Angwin (33'), Stephen Coniglio (54'), Lachie Whitfield (76'), Callum Brown (78' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 58% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.7 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs GWS GIANTS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 21 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 July 2026, 07:03 pm · Last updated: 1 Aug 2026, 09:15 pm_

Port Adelaide 63–75 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 21 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

GWS GIANTS took down Port Adelaide 75–63 at Adelaide Oval, showcasing a mix of direct play and solid defence. Port Adelaide focused on ball control, racking up 339 disposals, but GWS's 359 disposals and more direct approach proved decisive. They moved the ball swiftly, gaining crucial territory.

The match started evenly. Port Adelaide led 14–13 at quarter time. By halftime, GWS had edged ahead, leading 42–40. The third quarter saw GWS extend their lead to 70–53, a gap Port couldn't close.

Port Adelaide's ruckmen dominated with 49 hit-outs to GWS's 30. Despite this, GWS's slight edge in tackles, 72 to Port’s 68, highlighted their tenacity. The inside 50 count was close, 53 to 51 in favour of GWS. Port managed more marks inside 50, 10 to GWS’s 8, reflecting their controlled possession. However, GWS converted their entries more effectively, showcasing their direct style.

Defensively, GWS had 70 intercepts to Port's 66, turning defence into attack with greater fluency. Their pre-match defensive rating of 1299, compared to Port’s 1149, was evident as they stifled Port’s forward moves.

Both teams entered with similar recent form, each winning two of their last five matches. GWS's defensive strength aligned with their game approach, compressing space and transitioning quickly, contrasting with Port’s patient strategy.

Alphr's model predicted a GWS win with a 58% probability, anticipating a margin close to the actual 12-point win. The model also suggested a higher combined score than the actual 138 points, not unusual in a defensively focused match.

Ultimately, GWS's balance of adventurous ball movement and solid defence secured the win. Port’s control-centric approach kept them in the game but lacked the finishing punch. A contest defined by styles, with ambition edging out control.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 14 | 26 | 13 | 10 | 63 |
| GWS GIANTS | 13 | 29 | 28 | 5 | 75 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 339 | Disposals | **359** |
| **142** | Contested poss. | 136 |
| **37** | Clearances | 35 |
| 51 | Inside 50s | **53** |
| **89** | Marks | 74 |
| **10** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| 68 | Tackles | **72** |
| **49** | Hit-outs | 30 |
| 66 | Intercepts | **70** |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 58% probability. The predicted margin of 7.7 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. The game's 138 points came in 30 points lower than the predicted 168. GWS GIANTS led 40–42 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 12. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $2.18 (edge +12.5%) — model probability 58.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +5.5 @ $1.90 (edge +13.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 8 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

GWS GIANTS are the call at 58%, but Port Adelaide stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: GWS GIANTS sit 135 ELO points clear, 1518 to 1383.

GWS GIANTS own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Defence and Recent Form. The margin model has GWS GIANTS by 7.7, with the two sides combining for about 168. Lean GWS GIANTS, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Port Adelaide | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 74.0pts | Avg Score | 81.2pts |
| 78.2pts | Avg Conceded | 82.4pts |
| -4.2pts | Avg Margin | -1.2pts |
| 319.2 | Disposals | 380.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 51.8 | Tackles | 68.2 |
| 36.8 | Clearances | 36.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 2W–3L | 74.0 |
| GWS GIANTS | 2W–3L | 81.2 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 134 · 165 | 201 · 176 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 5.4/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 17/g | 22/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.2/g | 10.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.5% | 65.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 62 · 49 | 41 · 60 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 141/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.6/g | 20.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.5/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.2% | 70.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 14 | 6 · 17 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 103/g | 143/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.5/g | 11/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.6% | 80.2% |

**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.56/g (lg 0.52) +8% · Defenders 1.13/g (lg 1.07) +6% · Forwards 4.34/g (lg 4.46) -3%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.16/g (lg 1.07) +8% · Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.52) +4% · Key Forwards 3.93/g (lg 3.85) +2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 39 in 18g | 18/10g (4·1·1·1·2·1·3·3·0·2) | 7/4g | 125/61g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' 47' 74' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 29 in 19g | 14/10g (1·1·1·2·0·3·1·2·2·1) | 8/7g | 28/17g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 24 in 18g | 13/10g (0·0·3·3·2·0·1·1·2·1) | 4/4g | 50/48g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 19 in 19g | 8/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·3·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 12/13g | 49% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 14 in 19g | 9/10g (2·0·2·1·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 11/18g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 8 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·1) | 0/3g | 13/40g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 8 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 9/32g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·2) | 0/1g | 4/13g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 47/131g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Zadow | FWD | 4 in 4g | 4/4g (1·0·3·0) | 0/0g | 4/3g | 50% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Todd Marshall | KF | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 10/6g | 87/68g | 52% | — | 🏉 9' 91' |
| – | Jack Watkins | FWD | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/6g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 3 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 17/64g | 18% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/14g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 8/52g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 55/145g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 11/84g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Bamert | FWD | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 40% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/76g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Balyn O'Brien | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Ramm | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Lorenz | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 37 in 19g | 21/10g (2·5·1·3·0·1·7·1·0·1) | 19/13g | 16/12g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 58' 72' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 25 in 14g | 15/10g (0·3·1·4·1·2·2·1·0·1) | 2/2g | 1/2g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | 16 in 11g | 14/10g (0·1·1·2·2·3·3·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 15 in 14g | 14/10g (0·2·3·0·0·3·1·3·1·1) | 3/5g | 2/6g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 11 in 15g | 7/10g (1·1·2·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/6g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 9 in 17g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·3) | 7/11g | 12/14g | 30% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | 5 in 8g | 10/10g (4·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 9/18g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 1/4g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/10g | 13/15g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hamilton | FWD | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ough | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 6/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josaia Delana | FWD | 0 in 5g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 3/15g | 0% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Nicholas Madden | RUC | 0 in 5g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/10g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlan Ash | 28.5 | $1.88 | — | — |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.89 | 70% | 29 ✗ |
| Oliver Wines | 24.5 | $1.88 | — | — |
| Jase Burgoyne | 21.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 17 ✓ |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | 20.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 25 ✗ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 87% | 22 ✗ |
| Joseph Fonti | 17.5 | $1.87 | — | — |
| Will Lorenz ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 81% | 23 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 17.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 17 ✓ |
| Harrison Himmelberg | 17.5 | $1.87 | — | — |
| Aliir Aliir ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 21 ✗ |
| Jack Watkins | 15.5 | — | 77% | 12 ✓ |
| Lachlan Jones | 15.5 | — | — | — |
| Jordon Sweet | 14.5 | — | 72% | 9 ✓ |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | 29.5 | $1.89 | 40% | 23 ✓ |
| Lachie Whitfield | 28.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 29 ✗ |
| Connor Idun | 22.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| Xavier O'Halloran ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 22 ✗ |
| Ryan Angwin | 18.5 | — | 61% | 16 ✓ |
| Harvey Thomas | 18.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 23 ✗ |
| Jack Ough | 16.5 | — | — | 5 ✓ |
| Jayden Laverde | 16.5 | — | 64% | 11 ✓ |
| Stephen Coniglio | 16.5 | — | 43% | 20 ✗ |
| Harry Rowston | 15.5 | — | 64% | 17 ✗ |
| Toby Bedford | 15.5 | — | 61% | 20 ✗ |
| Sam Taylor | 13.5 | — | 59% | 10 ✓ |
| Josaia Delana | 13.5 | — | 90% | 11 ✓ |
| Jake Stringer | 12.5 | — | 54% | 15 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** GWS GIANTS hold the ELO advantage (1518 vs 1383), but the market favours Port Adelaide (@1.85). The model sides with ELO, GWS GIANTS predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Port Adelaide 1383 · GWS GIANTS 1518 · ELO difference: 135 in favour of GWS GIANTS

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Port Adelaide | GWS GIANTS | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1093 (best 1093) | 1195 (best 1195) | GWS GIANTS +103 |
| Forwards | 1098 (best 1347) | 1049 (best 1244) | Port Adelaide +49 |
| Defence | 1149 (best 1309) | 1299 (best 1451) | GWS GIANTS +150 |
| Ruck | 1162 (best 1289) | 1319 (best 1510) | GWS GIANTS +157 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 44.4% | GWS GIANTS |
| 2 | Weather | 9.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 3 | Forward Line | 8.9% | Port Adelaide |
| 4 | Venue | 8.4% | Port Adelaide |
| 5 | Defence | 7.5% | GWS GIANTS |
| 6 | Recent Form | 5.6% | GWS GIANTS |
| 7 | Lineup Strength | 5.5% | GWS GIANTS |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 4/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-01 11:15 UTC (latest tip update)