# Essendon v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 73 – 145 Adelaide Crows

_Adelaide Crows swoop on Essendon._

Half time: 33 – 66 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 12% / Adelaide Crows 88% · Marvel Stadium · Sun, 02 Aug, 04:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Peter Wright (5' ×6 1st Tipped ⚡), Hussien El Achkar (15' ×2), Harry Jones (91'), Nate Caddy (95' Tipped ⚡) · Adelaide Crows: Riley Thilthorpe (6' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Billy Dowling (21' ×3), Taylor Walker (28' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Callum Ah Chee (29' ×2), Izak Rankine (33' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Josh Rachele (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ben Keays (78' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Hugo Hall-Kahan (82'), Oscar Ryan (89'), Archie Ludowyke (84')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 88% | Won |
| Essendon | 12% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 39.2 predicted → 72 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 21 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 July 2026, 06:55 pm · Last updated: 2 Aug 2026, 07:23 pm_

Essendon 73–145 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 21 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

At half-time, Essendon were already in a tough spot, trailing Adelaide Crows 33 to 66. The Bombers faced a steep climb, and any hopes of a comeback quickly vanished. Adelaide Crows took charge and never let go, finishing with a dominant 145 to 73 victory at Marvel Stadium.

By the third quarter, Adelaide Crows had extended their lead to 97–47. Essendon's midfield, rated slightly higher on paper, couldn't match the Crows on the field. Adelaide's ruck division was a key factor, winning 47 hit-outs to Essendon's 29. This advantage gave Adelaide first use of the ball, setting the tone for the rest of the game.

Adelaide's efficiency was evident in the numbers. Their disposal efficiency was 80.8%, compared to Essendon's 76%. Every possession counted, and their clean use of the ball was reflected in their 104 marks, with 23 inside 50. Essendon managed only 6 marks inside their forward 50, highlighting their struggles against Adelaide's defence.

The Crows capitalised on their opportunities with 58 inside 50 entries, using them effectively. Essendon, with 49 entries, couldn't match Adelaide's authority. The Crows’ forwards, rated higher before the game, showed their class by converting chances with precision.

The midfield contest wasn't entirely one-sided. Essendon trailed in clearances, 39 to 33. However, Adelaide's quality of service from those clearances was superior. Their decision-making and ball movement, sharpened by recent form, highlighted why they averaged 91.8 points per game in their last five matches.

Essendon's recent form issues were evident. They’d been conceding an average of 108.2 points in their last five games. The Bombers' inability to penetrate Adelaide's defensive setup resulted in poor conversion inside 50. Adelaide exploited these weaknesses with precision.

Our model had given Adelaide an 88% probability of winning, and they delivered. However, the model underestimated the margin. A predicted 39.2-point victory turned into a 72-point blowout. The total score also exceeded expectations, reaching 218 instead of the predicted 168. Adelaide's performance surpassed all forecasts.

Adelaide's form, with three wins in their last five, suggested their potential. Their average margins indicated a team in good touch. Ultimately, Adelaide's class was evident throughout the match, leaving Essendon to reflect on their shortcomings at both ends of the ground.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 19 | 14 | 14 | 26 | 73 |
| Adelaide Crows | 44 | 22 | 31 | 48 | 145 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| **350** | Disposals | 349 |
| 118 | Contested poss. | **124** |
| 33 | Clearances | **39** |
| 49 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| 84 | Marks | **104** |
| 6 | Marks inside 50 | **23** |
| 55 | Tackles | **57** |
| 29 | Hit-outs | **47** |
| **58** | Intercepts | 56 |
| 76.0% | Disposal eff. | **80.8%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 88% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 39.2 but the actual margin was 72 points. The game's 218 points came in 50 points higher than the predicted 168. Adelaide Crows led 33–66 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 72. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.08 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 88.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +41.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 39 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Adelaide Crows here: 88% to see off Essendon. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Adelaide Crows sit 541 ELO points clear, 1644 to 1103. Form leans Adelaide Crows' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Essendon.

Adelaide Crows own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Recent Form and Stat Profile. The margin model has Adelaide Crows by 39.2, with the two sides combining for about 168. Adelaide Crows to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Essendon | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 56.0pts | Avg Score | 91.8pts |
| 108.2pts | Avg Conceded | 79.8pts |
| -52.2pts | Avg Margin | 12.0pts |
| 342.0 | Disposals | 381.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 50.8 | Tackles | 73.0 |
| 32.4 | Clearances | 39.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | R16 L · R17 L · R18 L · R19 W · R20 L | 56.0 |
| Adelaide Crows | R16 L · R17 W · R18 W · R19 W · R20 L | 91.8 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 102 · 200 | 173 · 155 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 6/g |
| Disposals | 81/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.6/g | 19.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.4/g | 8.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.6% | 67.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 60 · 68 | 71 · 45 |
| Goal Assists | 2.5/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 128/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.9/g | 23.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74% | 70% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 24 · 16 | 9 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 2.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 146/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.2/g | 9.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2/g | 0.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.6% | 81.6% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.1/g (lg 1.07) +3% · Forwards 4.37/g (lg 4.46) -2% · Midfielders 2.25/g (lg 2.48) -9%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Forwards 5.32/g (lg 4.46) +19% · Defenders 1.2/g (lg 1.07) +12% · Key Forwards 4.25/g (lg 3.86) +10%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 35 in 18g | 18/10g (2·2·2·1·1·2·3·2·0·3) | 2/2g | 27/16g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 95' |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 18 in 14g | 14/10g (1·1·0·2·3·0·1·3·1·2) | 14/6g | 87/45g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 39' 55' 69' 70' 86' |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 9 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 14/40g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 9 in 19g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 9/11g | 34/94g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (1·0·2·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/1g | 6/13g | 55% | — | — |
| – | Hussien El Achkar | FWD | 7 in 7g | 7/7g (1·0·2·1·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/2g | 71% | — | 🏉 15' 73' |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/10g | 68/59g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Dyson Sharp | FWD | 3 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 13/52g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 8/69g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Farrow | DEF | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Nick Bryan | RUC | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 2/12g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 5/19g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/14g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Jones | DEF | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/4g | 24/22g | 46% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Max Kondogiannis | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Artemis | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Unwin | FWD | no games | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Zak Johnson | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 32 in 19g | 18/10g (3·1·0·4·3·1·1·3·1·1) | 11/5g | 13/6g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' 76' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 24 in 19g | 13/10g (2·0·2·1·1·1·3·2·0·1) | 14/9g | 25/19g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' 66' 97' |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 24 in 16g | 13/10g (1·1·1·0·3·1·1·0·2·3) | 6/4g | 17/8g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 6' 11' 35' 94' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 22 in 13g | 18/10g (1·5·1·0·2·1·0·0·5·3) | 30/12g | 53/22g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' 58' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 21 in 16g | 14/10g (1·1·3·3·2·0·1·2·0·1) | 5/11g | 16/18g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 14 in 16g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 7/5g | 10/7g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' 45' 79' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 12 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 6/10g | 12/23g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 10 in 17g | 6/10g (0·1·1·2·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/4g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 9 in 17g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/7g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 7 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/6g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 2/11g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 6 in 19g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 2/9g | 8/14g | 58% | — | 🏉 29' 87' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Archie Ludowyke | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Billy Dowling | MID | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 3/2g | 43% | — | 🏉 21' 90' 92' |
| – | Hugo Hall-Kahan | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Ryan | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 89' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Milera ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 67% | — |
| Zachary Merrett | 27.5 | $1.82 | — | — |
| Archie Roberts ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.86 | 66% | 26 ✓ |
| Elijah Tsatas | 22.5 | — | 84% | — |
| Sam Durham ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.85 | 70% | 24 ✗ |
| Mason Redman ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.83 | 65% | 19 ✓ |
| Will Setterfield | 18.5 | — | 54% | 28 ✗ |
| Jacob Farrow | 18.5 | — | 66% | 16 ✓ |
| Dyson Sharp | 18.5 | — | 76% | 22 ✗ |
| Andrew McGrath | 17.5 | — | 51% | 21 ✗ |
| Kyle Langford | 17.5 | — | 74% | 19 ✗ |
| Zak Johnson | 17.5 | — | 82% | 15 ✓ |
| Jaxon Prior | 16.5 | — | 67% | 11 ✓ |
| Archie Perkins | 15.5 | — | 69% | — |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Izak Rankine | 25.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 23 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson | 25.5 | $1.92 | 49% | 30 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell | 23.5 | $1.91 | 62% | 14 ✓ |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | 21.5 | — | 73% | 18 ✓ |
| Luke Nankervis | 20.5 | — | 73% | 15 ✓ |
| Daniel Curtin | 20.5 | — | 73% | 18 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo | 19.5 | — | 56% | 19 ✓ |
| Billy Dowling | 18.5 | — | 62% | 18 ✓ |
| Brayden Cook | 17.5 | — | 51% | 11 ✓ |
| Oscar Ryan | 17.5 | — | — | 19 ✗ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | 17.5 | — | 54% | 19 ✗ |
| Josh Rachele | 17.5 | — | 67% | 11 ✓ |
| Mark Keane | 17.5 | — | 53% | 15 ✓ |
| Max Michalanney | 16.5 | — | 60% | 13 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Essendon 1103 · Adelaide Crows 1644 · ELO difference: 541 in favour of Adelaide Crows

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Essendon | Adelaide Crows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1146 (best 1197) | 1118 (best 1225) | Essendon +28 |
| Forwards | 904 (best 1169) | 1124 (best 1338) | Adelaide Crows +220 |
| Defence | 1130 (best 1247) | 1127 (best 1329) | Essendon +3 |
| Ruck | 1534 (best 1534) | 1174 (best 1174) | Essendon +360 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 37.7% | Adelaide Crows |
| 2 | Recent Form | 23.1% | Adelaide Crows |
| 3 | Stat Profile | 15.5% | Adelaide Crows |
| 4 | Lineup Strength | 9.2% | Adelaide Crows |
| 5 | Forward Line | 4.3% | Adelaide Crows |
| 6 | Weather | 3.4% | Essendon |
| 7 | Ruck | 3.0% | Essendon |

**Model Confidence: 88%** — Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 39 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-02 09:23 UTC (latest tip update)