# Collingwood v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Collingwood v Geelong Cats
Thu, 30 July, 07:30 pm AEST · MCG · Round 21

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.71 (edge -5.7%) — model probability 52.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 1 · Predicted total: 170

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Collingwood | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 99.4pts | Avg Score | 96.6pts |
| 79.6pts | Avg Conceded | 96.0pts |
| 19.8pts | Avg Margin | 0.6pts |
| 376.2 | Disposals | 361.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 64.8 | Tackles | 54.6 |
| 36.2 | Clearances | 39.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 W · R20 W | 99.4 |
| Geelong Cats | R15 L · R17 L · R18 L · R19 W · R20 W | 96.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-30 12:14 UTC (latest tip update)